저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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30년 국채금리 4.9% 돌파, 10년물 4.69%로 금리 재상승 주장. CRB 지수 14년 고점, 최근 7개월 원자재 28%↑, 유럽도 30%↑이라며 인플레이션 재가속 경고. 바이든의 전략비축유 방출이 유가를 누른 것으로 평가. 모기지 7%→8% 상승, 신용카드 금리 25% 전망. 금·은 폭등과 달러 기축통화 지위 약화 전망, 금광주 매수 권고, 신흥국은 관세 영향이 제한적이라 주장. 구조개혁(저축 확대, 소비 축소) 필요 강조.
다듬은 글
and the bond market is starting to sniff this out the yield on a 30-year US Treasury today Rose above 4.9% we're at 4.92% uh the yield on a 10year is 4.69 so these are the highest yields that we've had uh since the FED uh started started cutting rates in fact you have to go back even further that you know by the way oil prices are now above $74 a barrel they've been consistently Rising uh over the past several weeks as are a lot of other commodity prices you know this is an amazing thing and I I posted this chart on X uh but if you look at the crb index commodity uh prices today it's at a 14-year High 14 years and in the last seven months we're up over 28% in commodity prices and that's in dollars they're up more in Euros they're up more in Canadian dollar dollar has been strong so commodity prices are surging all over the world right in Europe and they're up over 30% you know Christine lagard had a uh a a Twitter or a expost she had a little video of herself she's a head of the ECB and she greeted Everybody by saying 2025 is going to be a great year this is the year inflation is coming back down to 2% I mean what is she smoking it's it's first of all it's about 3% now but it's headed in the other direction prices are surging all around the world yes we had a pullback in commodity prices uh as the Fed was initially tightening but that's reversed and again we've had strong commodity prices even with a strong dollar so imagine how much stronger they're going to be when the dollar weakens which eventually it is going to uh turn down and you know this is despite Oil we're at a 14-year high so oil has been a lot higher than $74 in Barrel in the last 14 years it's been well above a 100 so oil is one of the bright spots in this Dark Cloud here of of of prices other commodity prices look at coffee prices right uh look at look look at Sugar look at cocoa right uh and other grains are starting to move look at look at soybeans look at look at uh corn all these food items everything is surging in price at the same time the fed and the ECB they're all saying hey we've won the inflation battle we just want to make extra sure that we're down to 2% they're not even close Peter Schiff rattled off the list in one breath bond yields oil price prices coffee sugar everything is skyrocketing yet you're still calm enough to say how does this affect me maybe you just haven't noticed the hole in your wallet yet you might dismiss this as a passing Breeze but the fact that the yield on 30-year treasuries has topped 4.9% is already sounding the alarm if governments have to roll over their debt at high interest rates it eventually trickles down to households it becomes harder and costlier for ordinary people to secure mortgages auto loans or even basic personal loans while you're thinking great the central bank is cutting rates if long-term rates climb you're going to have a hard time you'll be sweating more to keep up with the payments meanwhile if you underestimate the surging Commodities coffee sugar soy corn and so on you'd be mistaken these raw materials end up on Supermarket shelves in various products if one morning you're sipping coffee and wondering why is coffee so expensive now the answer is right there commodity prices are at a 14-year High yet central banks keep telling the tale that they've defeated inflation who's buying that some people might want to believe it but once they see the money leaving their pocket it's hard to ignore reality European Central Bank president Christine lagard says that 2025 will be just fine sorry but looking at the current situation the word fine doesn't really fit with commodity skyrocketing saying relax will bring it down to 2% doesn't align with what's actually happening as shiff pointed out if commodi soared with such a strong dollar imagine what'll happen if the dollar weakens scary yes at least to me but acting like there's nothing to worry about isn't a solution so that's the first half of the story Rising rates surging Commodities and central banks painting Rosy pictures brace yourselves because the more striking details are coming in the second act where shiff critiques the media and the Strategic petroleum reserves and the bond market is starting to sniff this out the yield on a 30-year US Treasury today Rose above 4.9% we're at 4.92% uh the yield on a 10e is 4.69 so these are the highest yields that we've had uh since the FED uh started started cutting rates in fact you have to go back even further than that but again this does not surprise me this is exactly what I was saying was going to happen even before uh the FED started cutting but I said that when the FED did cut but we are moving substantially higher you know mortgage rates now are back above 7% and Rising they're going to be above 8% uh pretty soon for a a a 30-year fixed rate mortgage but they're back above they're back above seven uh credit card rates are what 25% they're going to keep going up now we got more bad news I mean forget about the fact that the mainstream media is ignoring this boom in commodity prices I mean which is completely inconsistent with the story The Fed is trying to sell how can they be telling us that inflation is going to come down when prices are soaring and these Commodities these are import uh input costs so they're going to bleed in to producer prices and consumer prices right they're going to move first and and then you're going to see it going you know up the chain so these are leading indicators so how could you ignore you know the last time we started to see commodity prices surging like this it was before inflation really ran away and then in the face of it the Fed was still claiming that inflation was transitory even though commodity prices were showing that that wasn't the case well that's happening again now they're saying that you know inflation's gone and commodities are surging they are the result of the inflation that is already there the FED never put out the entire time and now you're seeing it in these commodity prices you're going to see it more in oil again one of the reasons that we didn't have a bigger move up in oil when Biden was president he's still president for a few more weeks was his politically motivated decision to raid the Strategic petroleum Reserve imagine where oil prices would have gone or might be now had we never you know let loose all that oil I mean we didn't have to drill baby drill you know we just tapped we just sold the oil that we already had and now is the time to really open your eyes shiff says no surprises here he predicted that mortgage and credit card interest rates would increase when the FED Cuts its rates sounds like a joke right but this is the reality why because as long as inflation isn't tamed or the economy isn't balanced interest rates will keep fluctuating in a spiral do you think it's normal for credit card rates to reach 25% of course not but this abnormal normal is now part of our daily lives let's get to the media angle shiff is shouting that the media is ignoring the commodity boom indeed you often see headlines like inflation is improving in the financial pages but if soaring commodity prices are causing cracks in producer costs soon enough that shows up on Supermarket shelves like an Ever growing snowball this eventually chips away at the consumer's wallet in short if the producer price index is rising the Consumer Price Index will follow with a delay miss that connection and you'll be left scratching your head asking why has everything gotten more expensive then there's the matter of the Strategic petroleum Reserve shiff points out Biden drained it for political reasons otherwise oil prices would be even higher think about it spending your emergency savings just to bring prices down for a bit if refilling that Reserve later cost you double don't be surprised once the reserves are depleted the oil supply tightens again prices shoot back up and then you ask why is gas going up again so what's the second act telling us loan interest rates are climbing Commodities are still on fire despite the media saying everything's fine and using the Strategic reserves is just a temporary patch don't fool yourselves things could get worse next comes the third act where shiff answers how do we fix it though he doesn't offer a sweet remedy it might be the realistic one as I said earlier that in order to get much lower inflation we have to have structural changes Americans have to save a lot more and spend a lot less but we already have an economy that's built on undercon on on on excess consumption the GDP is powered by spending money well if you save the money then you can't spend it and you have to save it to build the factories right if we're not going to get the Japanese savings we got to generate our own well we can't save and spend the same money so in order to rebuild our manufacturing infrastructure we have to have a severe recession in the process because we have to stop spending money so that we can use it uh to make these Investments and so we have to we have to make those changes uh but again those are not the changes that are coming because those are changes that changes that are going to result in a short-term decline in how we measure the economy so things have to get worse before they can get better uh so I I still think that we've I've got this thing uh handicapped correctly that we're going to see an explosion in the price of gold and silver the dollar share of uh Global reserves hit a new low and what's replacing it is gold and the central banks I'm sure gold uh and so you know we should be doing it take advantage of the $50 uh uh special at shift gold but I think these gold mining stocks which went way down last year as a result of a huge selloff post uh election uh the markets have got this completely wrong uh when it comes to the outlook for uh gold company profits we should be loading up on these gold mining stocks we should be buying the Emerging Markets the Emerging Markets are not going to suffer from the Trump tariffs to the extent that the tariffs are imposed uh it will end up being a relief remember contrary to what Donald Trump claims we're not propping up the world the world is propping us propping up us we do need their products what they don't need is our fiat currency they have the ability to print their own money right we don't have the ability to make our own products printing money is easy just run it off the presses you don't even have to run off of press you just create out of thin air right so any government can create currency they don't need ours but producing real Goods that requires real Capital real labor real infrastructure right real resources that we don't have and so Trump has it backwards the world Pro supports us not the other way around and he's about to learn this lesson the hard way and now we've come to the most crucial part shiff says that to truly Stamp Out inflation structural reforms are necessary spend less save more he advises sounds simple consume less produce more and practice sensible savings but who will actually implement this we're constantly pushed to shop with endless promotions to keep the consumer frenzy alive for politicians saying let's invest in the real sector and endure some economic slowdown for a while is almost the same as losing an election who would dare let economic data dip in the short term never so these radical remedies mostly collect dust on the Shelf shiff also points out that as the dollar status as a global Reserve currency weakens interest in golden silver may rise that should shake those who say I'm holding dollars I'm fine if the dollar loses strength your money's real purchasing power erodes metals like gold and silver have long been seen as safe havens that's really all the experts mean when they say keep some in your portfolio watch out for it of course it's no magic fix in the end you can't create wealth without actual production printing money is easy producing Goods is hard shift says it's the world propping us up not the other way around in other words countries could pull the plug on a consumption-driven import dependent Nation at any moment frightening yes but it's the reality so what should we understand from all this one if we want to bring inflation down we have to accept painful reforms in the short term politically it's a nightmare but there's no other way two shifting toward production and saving instead of relying on credit and consumption might slow growth temporarily but it sets up a stronger economy in the long run three on the matter of Reserve currencies the dollar isn't as Untouchable as it used to be gold and silver no absolute guarantee but shiff says they have huge potential after hearing all this are you still saying oh it'll be fine I don't think you should your rent grocery bills and energy costs are directly affected by these so-called theoretical issues I hope my words have given you a bit of a wakeup call Don't Close Your Eyes and assume everything's fine shift's message is clear as long as we have unstable monetary policies weak production and rampant consumption inflation won't leave us alone whether you take this seriously is up to you see you in the next video Until then be mindful of your money your spending and your Investments take care
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