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I tend to be sort of in the Stevie Cohen Camp it's not like the bottom is going to fall up but there's like a lot of room for concern I guess is the best way to put it Nick I don't know if you can find that clip that at fi but he had a very precise summary of how he saw the world and I I I frankly just agreed with everything that he was saying so he he probably can say better than I when you take a brew of tariffs on top of that we have slowing immigration and in addition that you have Doge I mean that's austerity we think growth is going to slow to 1 and 12% from 2 and half% in the second half and so I'm actually pretty negative for the first time in a while and it may only last a year or so but it's definitely I think the best gains have been had and and wouldn't surprise me to see a significant correction I think a couple of very specific thoughts the first is that you're starting to see this compression of the mag 7 towards everybody else so this is the forward PE of these guys and so what you're starting to see is everybody else starting to capture back some of the ground people are processing what the real upside of of the mag s is now if you go to the other chart what this starts to show you though is that mag7 is really price to Perfection and so you have to believe that the world kind of stays the way that it is otherwise you're going to have some amount of of mean reversion so I think the stock market on the margin is a little expensive and not particularly that attractive second the bond market has basically said okay we are going to give you credit that doge is going to work and that tariffs are going to work so we've had some pretty meaningful compression in the tene which I think is really interesting I think it's very good for bessent and for Trump and I think I've mentioned this before but we got to go in and you know refinance $1 trillion doll in the next six months so you could see this thing maybe even get under 4% if we gets a good string of data the real problem I think though is that if you look back and say what does this look like the example that I would give you guys is in 2010 in the United Kingdom the deficit as a percentage of GDP was 10% and the UK government embarked on a multi-year austerity plan and they said we're going to get the deficit as a percentage of GDP back in line and ultimately by 2016 it got to 3% which is where we are trying to get to and right now we're a little bit under 7% we're trying to get it to 3% so it's interesting to ask what happened and there the bond market gave the UK government a ton of credit so they kept rates relatively low and they brought them back from where they were that seems like What's Happening Here Yeah the stock market the stock market kind of went sideways to a little bit down let's see what happens here but the real big thing is in the UK all of this created tremendous dissatisfaction and you had brexit so I think the question that I have is if we go through a prolonged austerity program and the frustration amongst the American populist builds what's the release valve there the release valve was Voting to leave the EU here it's not quite it's not obvious to me what a release electing Trump was step one and I don't know if there's something even more populist than Trump other I I think he is the mechanism of implementing the austerity I think people want this austerity just the question is what happens when the actual byproducts of that austerity are felt by people for six or seven years chath Palapa recently went out of his way to expose the stock market and tell everyone what Wall Street plans for companies like Nvidia moving forward why is he choosing to say this now because the once unshakable Tech Giants known as The Magnificent 7 are witnessing a dramatic shift in their Market standing companies like Nvidia Apple Tesla and Microsoft are no longer the sure bets they once seem to be having collectively lost over $1.4 trillion in market value since December these heavyweights appear to be losing their steam could this be the beginning of a new chapter for Wall Street welcome back everyone to investra you've been talking a little bit about this I don't know if it was a couple weeks ago you were tweeting about the great reset Theory and there's you know whatever that is the third or fourth turning people have been talking about you want to uh maybe encapsulate your thoughts I think you have to figure out what the goal is so one goal is you could say that the Republicans want to have consistent political power right that's a reasonable goal the Democrats want that too right a different goal would be to do what freeberg said we're going to go and take the lumps because we are going to defend the dollar and The credibility of the United States we're just going to make sure that structurally it's sound and take the pain that's necessary to reset that could be a goal I think the reality is something in the Middle where you can't be in one camp and you can't be in other because I don't think you can get anything done and somewhere in the middle I think the thing that I have been thinking a lot about is when will somebody sniff out what the great Coalition is that preserves political power whether that's the Democrats or the Republicans the reality is that you will have a consistent majority if you get three cohorts of people together cohort number one are the people that frankly don't have many assets and are the working in Middle Class meaning they don't necessarily own homes they don't necessarily have investments in the stock market so they don't particularly care about what's happening there okay that cohort dominates there was a clip of a discussion at Harvard just this past week about the different political coalitions that voted for Trump versus kamla Harris the most important takeway that I took from it is that if you make $100,000 or more a year you're a reliable Democratic voter if you went to college you're a reliable Democratic voter everything else is a reliable Republican voter but the thing to remember is that bucket of everything else is growing faster than that first bucket so you have this Coalition of the asset light working in middle class and then you have other people patriotic business people and patriotic business owners and Technology people that care about Innovation that Maga has been able to Corral into a coalition my point is if that is the consistent reliable thing that cements political power multiple elections from now and we've seen this before in the past where Republicans can go on a three-term run or you know a four-term run Democrats have as well in the past it is bad news for the stock market and it is bad news for asset owners because it doesn't toward the constituents back to Freed Brook's point so if you are going to feed your constituents and your constituents don't own stocks and your constituents don't own homes or they are so wealthy that they can be inoculated from a massive draw down in those asset categories what do you think the winning strategy is the stock market much like a roller coaster is full of ups and downs just ask the Magnificent s these industry Titans have recently taken a dip shedding Market value like last season's fashion leading the pack on this downward slope is NVIDIA as its shares tumble to new lows by the day even after beating all Wall Street expectations for its earnings the main culprit here seems to be the news of the Trump tariffs and how they are going to negatively affect the international chip sales which make the majority of nvidia's overall Revenud to your point about tsmc just one last word about their investment the tariffs will certainly add to tsmc's construction costs especially after tsmc had already previously this is going back over a year acknowledge that us Manufacturing in Arizona will cost more to operate than Taiwan we know that and back in December mcquery Bank estimated at least 30% more and that's not including these looming tariffs coming so it's certainly going to be more and tsmc is very unlikely to absorb those costs that means the customers have to do so all right that's a good that's a good understanding of all all of these issues which are at play Christina thank you that's Christina partsinevelos let's now bring in Capital Area planning groups Malcolm Ethridge and requisite capitals Bren Talkington both are CNBC contributors Dan Greenhouse of course of soless is still with us uh brenn I'll go to you first I mean are are you surprised that in Nvidia has continued to trade so poorly on the surface yes right so if you look at it fundamentally they just reported Q3 2025 right so they have a different year so if you just look at the estimates for 2027 the Stock's trading around 22 times 2027 numbers and that's where you have to say the market is saying we don't believe that's going to happen and you have to respect the market and I think to Christina's point if we get four to five billion of of tariffs on our export R restrictions on these chips well there you go that that they're not going to make that 2027 number and so right now the stock is still trading in this channel between you know 110 to 115 to 145 is so that channel has not been violated we want to see that hold but I think that you do need to respect the market of saying well you can say what you want about their numbers in the future we don't believe those are going to happen and at the same time you're just seeing so much Carnage in like an AMD which I think is down 55% over the last year and so this Market has not suffered fools but I don't think this is the time for you just to ignore what the Market's saying I continue to sell calls on the name I really like the name longterm but I respect how it's trading right now I do want to see it bounce off this like right around this level you want to see it bounce and not violate that $100 the larger picture reveals an evolving Market Jim Paulson a market strategist notes a pivot away from these former leaders who outshone the broader Market between 2023 and 2024 surging more than 160% 've gotten a correction and more in the NASDAQ and well in the mega cap names yeah I mean Nvidia is off 21% from its record high of January the 7th alphabets down 18% from its record high of February 4th Microsoft down 16% from its high last July Amazon meta and apple are all down significantly from their own record High you made a move too Kev in Nvidia today tell me more well yesterday at the close Scott we covered a quarter of the position just in case the the things got a little bit more dicey today and it was there was a lot of Premium uh as you can imagine with the volatility so we wrote a short-term onewe call it's a 123 option we generated almost $5 of Premium so if I get taken out I'm out at 128 and that would be great Jim just bought it and we still have the other 75% of the shares uncovered but Scott I'd be a buyer of any of these down here maybe not back the truck up and go all in but if you're dollar cost averaging into positions that you really like 10 to 20% pullbacks are the times you want to be buying despite all that Nvidia still looks like a favorable buy especially with the dip it is taking at the moment the future outlook for this company looks brighter than it is now but the market dynamics regarding the Magnificent 7 should clue Us in on how Wall Street is starting to brought out its options maybe we should do that as well
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