저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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캐시 우드는 엔비디아 전량 매도 사실을 밝히며 경쟁 심화(애플 자체칩, AMD·아마존), 중국의 간접 구매 및 수출통제 리스크, 관세와 TSMC 대미 투자 등을 근거로 들었다. 다만 AI 수요는 유지된다고 보며 장기적으로는 AI 수혜주 보유를 강조했고, 시장 전반에는 여전히 부정적이지만 약세장은 아니라고 설명했다. 테슬라 비중 확대와 현금 확보도 언급했다.
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interesting how you you you split up the mag 7 into you know you have I would imagine Tesla and then the mag six do you regret your decision to sell down that position in Tesla because that I would imagine that is also part of why some of your investors are asking and talking about concentration risk where is our Tesla in your strategy where is our Nvidia in your strategy first on the mag 6 versus mag 7 we didn't create the mag 6 uh the market throughout ma uh Tesla from the mag 7 when it started underperforming this year uh so that wasn't our concoction that was the market generally saying okay we guess Tesla's not in in this group anymore uh and we were kind of happy about that we didn't want it to be side point the reason I bring that up also and I want you to be able to talk through through that the the the macro environment that you seem to be describing that we are headed into with lower rates doesn't that benefit all seven and not just Tesla for example if you look at the valuations of these companies relative to where they were preco um unlike our portfolios most of the stocks in our portfolios which are back to 2018 levels uh some even 2017 levels think about that um and these these stocks are at all-time highs will they benefit as much as ours highly unlikely highly unlikely we think it's more like that uh 1930s example now to answer your question directly about would we have we we sold and it has tripled since we uh were in for the first 100 fold increase so we wrote it up a h hundredfold would we have liked another triple sure I mean that and if we had known it was going to Triple absolutely but here is the most important question for NVIDIA to be to deserve where it is right now from a valuation point of view other companies out there must be having phenomenal results provocative results that are turbocharging them uh and moving forward we think we have a lot of companies in our portfolio that will enjoy the AI swish but it is going to take time and I think that is what a lot of people are missing and this is what we were thinking as we were selling Nvidia and moving more into Tesla one notable figure in the world of investment Cathy wood known for her Forward Thinking approach and bold predictions was unwavering in her confidence in Nvidia despite a recent post- earning selloff but now she is not sure anymore this isn't a case of mere cynicism rather it's a strategic belief that the profound potential of a company that is known for adapting and thriving amidst industry challenges might not exist anymore is she right in her assessment bviously one of the reasons for the weakness in the Market at the index level specifically is NVIDIA which is down again it's five take a look at Nvidia today yeah it can't get any footing from earnings it's been down about 5% today it's off more than 11% year to date it is the big issue along with momentum you're out of it completely now I am out when did you sell the rest of it I sold the rest of when they reported earnings so it's uh I didn't get it on the upswing of the earnings cuz it went into the green I sold it when uh you know start to go into the into the red look there there are a few issues with with Nvidia in my view uh one of them being that with Apple for example you're starting to see them make their own chip uh and others all have plants to it so got competition also it's been reported that Nvidia is that China is buying the Nvidia chip through other countries so I think that's an issue for them and then finally when you take a look at at uh at what tariffs could do and Taiwan semi has been called out for tariffs that Stock's really gotten hit it's not reflected here but they'll pick up the excess capacity well they're about to announce we think according to the Wall Street Journal a $100 billion investment in the US something you may hear more about as the afternoon progresses right most of which frankly has been announced already uh so but the point to Nvidia is is that a lot of people didn't even know why they owned it they owned it for the momentum and they owned it because they didn't want to sell it because of taxes and I think part of the hit to technology overall is that those that came in the year saying okay I'm going to wait to sell until the next year 25 and hopefully pay lower taxes uh or just delay my taxes for period uh they said you know what I can't hold on anymore so it's combination of factors that hit that in Tech but it's really notable that the only two of the 12 sectors that are down year-to date in the S&P are information technology which is Tech and consumer discretionary I actually which is obviously heavy waiting toward Tesla and Amazon exactly and I actually am uh still negative on the market not bearish but still negative and looking to raise cash that's one of the other reasons I sold Nvidia despite losing some hope in Nvidia Kathy Wood still sees Nvidia as more than just another player in the tech sector she considers it a high growth stock with the potential to achieve a remarkable 20% compound growth rate this potential shines even more brightly in light of the looming competition from major players like AMD and Amazon who ventured into the AI chip Markenteresting because we have export restrictions on quite a few countries but apparently not Singapore yeah and I I I was just there on Friday right so so I I can tell you the sense is that these export controls it's not going to be really constrained to ultimately Singapore and I think the fear here and I think you're seeing on the Nvidia selloff is that this is going to be a huge Ripple fact it's going to be harder and harder to get those chips that's something even though there's the China piece it could have a much broader impact across the region I do I think barks's worse bite I mean it's someone you know in Asia for 2 weeks I think it's one I get the fears but I don't think this is something that's really going to be as much of a restrictive Factor despite everything we saw today do you think it's deep seat concerns that are spurring this next wave potentially of Regulation and and I guess perhaps just as importantly has the train already left the station when you look at homegrown chip development in a place like China look I think deep seek that was a shot across the B because I think everyone recognized okay they didn't do this in the basement with no chips and it comes down to if they use nextg Nvidia chips what does that mean and I think look the broader fear especially that you see in the Trump Administration is okay we got to restrict it more and more so I think what you're starting to see from an investor perspective is okay what does this mean for Nidia second derivatives is this going to crimp the supply chain now we disagree I think when it comes to tariffs we've seen many times this is one it's going to have an impact but I do not believe it's going to have such a pronounced impact I think is being factored in here in terms of supply chain still 15 to1 demand to supply even when it comes to Blackwell well okay bark is worse than bite but still a bark can be pretty bad if it hurts sentiment right if it sort of puts a wet blanket on the party has an impact on valuation at what point does it start to do that and do you have to if you're an AI investor or even Nvidia investor have to get less bullish yeah look I mean no doubt you're going through a lot of turbulence here from a sentiment perspective you're seeing this St then it becomes self filling prophecy but what I'll tell you is it comes down to just demand do we see any changes in spending that demand is going to continue to be there and I think it's one there's only one chip in the world that ultimately could fuel this I get we're going to go through this but in my opinion these are opportunities not the time to run for the hills I think when you look at it in terms of tech winners if you look over the years it's period like this and these white knuckle pairs that you own the winners you own the nvidias recently Nvidia released its earnings report which unveiled a margin Outlook of 70.6% to 71% for the upcoming first quarter while some analysts May view this projection with a degree of skepticism potentially interpreting it as a sign of distress Wood's perspective remains decidedly optimistic yet understandably cautiou and Thalat as the competition in the AI chip Market intensifies Nvidia stands firm solidifying its role as a Cornerstone of the industry with a storied history of innovation leadership and a Relentless drive for excellence Nvidia seems equipped to continue driving growth and delivering substantial value to its shareholde
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