Dan Ives: Why ALL MY MONEY Is STILL On Nvidia..

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딥시크 충격 후 엔비디아 조정을 두고 Ives·Munster 등이 AI 칩 수요는 유지되며 조정은 매수 기회라고 주장. 공급망 제약과 관세는 영향 있으나 과도하게 반영됐다는 입장. 다만 마진 가이던스(71% vs 72% 기대치)와 블랙웰 공급 언급 누락은 단기 우려 요인으로 지적. 진행자 Ben은 칩 수출규제·관세·AI 디퓨전 룰 우려가 반도체 전반 부진의 원인이라고 설명. 자막이 자동인식이라 일부 발언자 구분은 불확실.

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01. think the fear here and I think you're seeing on the Nvidia selloff is that this is going to be a huge ripple effect it's going to be harder and harder to get those chips that's something even though there's the China piece it could have a much broader impact across the region I do I think Bark's worse than a bite I mean as someone you know in Asia for two weeks I think it's one I get the fears but I don't think this is something that's really going to be as much of a restrictive Factor despite everything we saw today do you think it's deep seek concerns that are spurring this next wave potentially of Regulation I guess perhaps just as importantly has the train already left the station when you look at homegrown chip development in a place like China look I think deep seek that was a shot across the bout because I think everyone recognized okay they didn't do this in the basement with no chips and it comes down to if they use nextg Nvidia chips what does that mean and I think look the broader fear especially that you see in the Trump Administration is okay we got to restrict it more and more so I think what you're starting to see from an investor perspective is okay what does this mean for NVIDIA second derivatives is this going to crimp the supply chain now we disagree I think when it comes to tariffs we've seen many times this is one it's going to have an impact but I do not believe it's going to have such a pronounce impact I think's being factored in here in terms of supply chain still 15 to1 demand to supply even when it comes to blackw well okay bark is worse than bite but still a bark can be pretty bad if it hurts sentiment right if that sort of puts a wet blanket on the party has an impact on valuation at what point does it start to do that and do you have to if you're an AI investor or even Nvidia investor have to get less bullish yeah look I mean no doubt you're going through a lot of turbulence here from a sentiment perspective you're seeing this St then it becomes self fill and prophecy but what I'll tell you is it comes down to just demand do we see any changes in spending that demand is going to continue to be there and I think it's when there's only one chip in the world that ultimately could fuel this I get we're going to go through this but in my opinion these are opportunities not the time to run for the hills I think when you look at it in terms of tech winners if you look over the years it's period like this in these White Knuckle periods that you own the winners you own the nvidias recent developments surrounding Nvidia Corporation have sparked debates among investors and analysts alike with Gene monster of deep water offering interesting insights into nvidia's recent performance moner's optimism about nvidia's long-term prospects remains unshaken but concerns around their margin guidance and the impact of tariffs hint at choppy Waters ahead Dan Ives however has a different view of the tariffs and urges investors to take this opportunity to invest in more Invidia stock as a surge awaits welcome back everyone to invest ocracy mention that I think there's something bigger at play here and just a kind of short cut what to look for when these numbers come out guy just mentioned the uh the gross margin number that's important but I think what's even more important is we're going to see two press releases that come out one the earnings and second a letter from their CFO in that letter there it will likely be some commentary about what is the demand how far they're out with the supply demand equilibrium related to Blackwell and I suspect that they're going to say we're four quarters out basically through all of 2020 calendar 25 they're going to be essentially sold out of Blackwell if that language is in there think that that is going to be a reassuring comment for AI investors if they maintain that it's just several quarters out like she said in last quarter's uh letter I think that's going to send kind of a shock wave so uh that's probably the piece that I think investors are going to dig most into related to the the Nvidia earnings do you think they address deep seek uh yes I mean it's going to come up and I think that Tim had some comments about like you know these hyperscalers and what they're spending they will uh reiterate that and and I think that I just want to emphasize a piece related to deep seek relative to what the hyperscalers said going into deep seek just before it came out the hyperscalers were expected to increase their cap back spend by 20% in calendar 25 now it's expected to be just about 40% that's a meaningful move higher and so I think that really is important and I think the substance of that and we may not see that in how Nvidia trades on Thursday morning but I think the substance of this is that the AI Hardware trade will last longer than most investors expect and understand kind of the apprehension about the funk that the AI trade in is right now but if if what these hyperscalers are seeing is true companies like envidia should have more upside throughout this year than investors are currently anticipating questions about nvidia's market dominance and adaptations to an intensifying AI landscape remain crucial as curiosity builds as we peel back layers of this unfolding story mentioning Jensen hang we dive into the heartbeat of the Market's reaction where opinions clash and forecasts shape strategic decisions the announcement of nvidia's recent earnings call sent ripples through the market while Gene Monster's label of great but not extraordinary might sound like a cautious compliment it actually encapsulates the delicate balance Nvidia is attempting to maintain the company's revision of guidance raising it by $1 billion instead of the more expected couple of billions has some investors clutching their pearlas great but not extraordinary and that's really what this needs to be and when you think about extraordinary you got to beat the whisper on what the raise is and so the whisper was that they were going to raise by a couple billion they raised by 1 billion for April as I you said in the setup is the margin guidance they talked about that being a couple percentage below what the street was at 1% specifically at 71% versus 72 and when you have a company like this that of course expectations are so high I think in any normal environment uh would be down when you talk about margin pressure uh I think it's uh justification for the stock to probably trade lower on the first trading uh tomorrow morning us time I expect it probably to be down my guess is probably around 5% uh because I think that that margin really stung and it was interesting to look at the stock in the after hours trading it was up a couple percent up until a few minutes to the last question on the call and the question was related to tariffs and specifically is can you get that ramp in margins because I mentioned the negative commentary about April margins they also said that margins would ramp in the back half of the Year back to the mid 70% so goes basically go from 70% to 75 and can you achieve that with the tariffs uh situation getting more intense and the answer was we don't know is uh it's a fluid environment and it's not baked into our guidance and so you quickly saw this stock drop a couple percent it's kind of faded since then and so what that tells us that stock reaction looking at the aftermarket it really gives insight to what investors are thinking and what they're thinking the central question they're asking right now is can these margins ramp in the back half of the year and I think that was a little bit in question one more Point that's I think uh critical here is that the setup going into this one of the central questions a pressure point which I would describe it as was what was the backlog how long would they be sold out out of Blackwell in calendar 25 in last quarter when they talked about calendar 25 they said it would be several quarters that they'd be sold out of Blackwell and a lot of investors were focused on like what's going to be the new commentary are they going to say that it's sold out for the rest for the full year of 25 that kind of was the expectation but they pulled that language from the CFO letter and surprisingly no one asked the question on the call and I think that uh that uh kind of the absence of that I think is also uh at nagging at investors uh kind of some of their confidence right now so I just want to highlight it sounds like I'm I'm really down on Nvidia but I just want to highlight that there were some headwinds but there are also some very positive long-term pieces to it that I think will ultimately even though the stock trades off tomorrow cause the stock to move higher over the next year and two years Monster's assertion that Nvidia will return to impressive upsides by 2026 hinges on this very digitized rise nvidia's dip opens opportunities for other chip makers and AI sectors stoking curiosity over how these players might capitalize indeed the performance of semiconductor ETFs and cloud computing stocks remains Tethered to nvidia's fortunnd which leads us quickly here to Nvidia which was down almost 5% again what do you attribute its recent weakness to Ben well there was a lot of noise over the weekend about coas which is their packaging technology for the new Blackwell uh being cut by Nvidia I actually think it's noise I actually think that they're continuing to make progress there that may actually even help margins by the second half but the noise over the weekend was a fever pitch and that could be impacting the stock there's also just a broader sell-off in semis and a negative halo over it due to the administration uh worries over bans of chips worries over more tarff worries over China retaliating worries over the AI diffusion rule that Biden put into place being kept and that rule bothers me probably the most of all of them and so until all those are lifted semi is going to be tough the AI semi is going to be tough but hopefully uh hopefully president Trump you know sees that we need the uh stock market to work and uh we need to be a leader and AI semis and get this going again yeah we'll see obviously one of the reasons for the weakness in the the market at the index level specifically is NVIDIA which is down again it's five take a look at Nvidia today yeah it can't get any footing from earnings it's been down about 5% today it's off more than 11% year to date it is the big issue along with momentum you're out of it completely now I am out of when did you sell the rest of it I sold the rest of when they reported earnings so it's uh I didn't get it on the upswing of the earnings because it went into the green I sold it when uh you know start to go into the into the red look there there are a few issues with with Invidia in my view uh one of them being that with Apple for example you're starting to see them make their own chip uh and others all have plant to so got competition also it's been reported that Nvidia is that China is buying the Nvidia chip through other countries so I think that's an issue for them and then finally when you take a look at at uh at what tariffs could do do and Taiwan semi has been called out for tariffs that Stock's really gotten hit it's not reflected here but they'll pick up the excess capacity well they're about to ANS we think according to the Wall Street Journal a $100 billion investment in the US something you may hear more about as the afternoon progresses right most of which frankly has been announced already uh so but the point to Nvidia is is that a lot of people didn't even know why they owned it they owned it for the momentum and they owned it because they didn't want to sell it because of taxes and I think I think part of the hit to technology overall is that those that came into the year saying okay I'm going to wait to sell until the next year 25 and hopefully pay lower taxes uh or just delay my taxes for period uh they said you know what I can't hold on anymore so it's combination factors that hit that in Tech but it's really notable that the only two of the 12 sectors that are down year to date in the S&P are information technology which is Tech and discretionary I actually tariffs add another layer for NVIDIA to manage the cfo's ambiguous answers during the conference call on tariff handling left plenty to be desired yet all is not Grim monster maintains Nvidia as the dominant Force for years to come suggesting the Market's current subsiding may just be a buying springboard for investors and Dan Ives agrees IES believes that these export restrictions are not going to be a restrictive factor and the tariffs are simply Scare Tactics and that short-term supply chain disturbances will be minimal for the tech company as nvidia's Journey unfolds the next ACT holds promise for potential growth and Recovery investors taking a cue from Monster and IV's unwavering optimism might view the current dip as a lucrative entry point coupled with growing AI demands nvidia's trajectory toward imposing gains by 2026 remains conceivable for those eyeing Nvidia it becomes a question of faith in Innovation and ai's potential what are your thoughts on Dan Ives and moners predictions is NVIDIA a Savvy buy or is it better to remain cautious amidst the fluctuation