저자: DanIves · 외국인
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딥시크 충격 이후 중국 테크(알리바바 등)가 과소평가됐다며 AI 확산 수혜를 강조. 알리바바 적정가치 5,000억달러 기준 제시. 미중 무역 협상은 결국 win-win으로 귀결될 것이라 전망. 엔비디아는 Blackwell 수요 강세와 실적 회복을 근거로 긍정적이나, 일부 애널리스트(Gil Luria)의 성장 둔화 우려도 소개됨. 엔비디아 2025 회계연도 매출 1,305억달러 언급.
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did you feel that deep seek was a Sputnik moment because it it's it's just this past one or two weeks has been such a revelation for all of us we saw xiin ping in the Symposium with the tech Titans do we need to reconsider the case then for B Ali and tenson yeah look I thought China Tech was just way over so to begin with as we you know as when the fall you into earlier this year I can tell you being here in October it was anything but China you couldn't even bring up China in me chy attack they throw you out of the mem today oh Baba what what do you think valuation can be I do what is 10 say the point is like now it's an Awakening moment that's why I think deep seek I just think the narrative is more okay deep seep the reality is there a shot across the bow and it shows China Tech in terms of what we see with AI Revolution they are going to be a big player and it's my view like boba be the best play I think it's 500 billion is sort of base case valuation for baba but then it goes back to it's not their winners they're losers it's my view as this Global AI story plays out yeah that's what's going to make it to a transformational and also goes back to like I think Trump plays ball and I think Beijing does too in terms of overall like a deal at one point getting done next 69ine months so the sports analogy here you know this is kind of like the Super Bowl right all the play forward both sides are trash talking we know that but they also understand that the game and the stakes are big enough that it has to be win-win at the end of the day exactly I mean that and it's one like they're both in the Super Bowl right there's many that watching from the from their couch I do think like when you look at the technology What's happen look China C behind us export controls but but my view is like multiple expansion continues to increase on China Tech and I think the big narrative from this call when you look at Nvidia is like okay you you're going to have winners in terms of this AI Revolution us but deep seek is not some moment that's going to take down US tech ecosystem it's going to be good for everybody it's going to be good and my then the whole point there is like okay us China cold Tech War what's the view there how does this like ruin the party right but but my view is like despite all the headlines and the export controls and everything else being in DC a few weeks ago being in Asia for the last two plus weeks there's a view that there's a th like you know like I do believe in this game of poker that eventually some deal and it's a lot better than expect Dan Ives publicly rejects recent data that hints at a potential peak in nvidia's growth trajectory even as the company continues to dominate headlines Tech analyst Gil Lura from da Davidson Sparks conversation with his latest assertion nvidia's Stellar Ascent may be slowing giants like Microsoft meta platforms and Amazon huge patrons of nvidia's Technology could be pulling back after years of robust investment the question echoing across trading floors and boardrooms alike has Nvidia truly hit its growth ceiling welcome back everyone to invest stracy and for for China wasn't just deep seek which rocked the boat about a month ago uh right it was also xiin ping Gathering old Jack ma embracing the guy it's like Jack is back and here's a seal of approval private sector it's safe to come out again I mean this is like the pop walking the room well that's exactly cuz you couldn't no matter where you were globally you know New York Singapore Australia you know you couldn't invest in China Tech Sunday morning you don't know what you're waking up to what's going to happen now to Big Tech in China now you feel like okay regulatory is a little calmer and then also at the time like there's a view like does Trump get a deal done at one point in China because in this arms race where it all plays out see my view is like if you have anything less than Draconian I think you actually have us Tech that moves much higher as well as China Tech yeah so listen you brought up an interesting phrase there arms race I mean that's really what it is right the war it's a tech War but it is still a war right I mean it can be potentially win-win for both sides right what about National Security concerns but there's going to be look there there will be it starts off with let's say Tik Tok that'll be the first chip on the table okay but ultimately it's like there's going to be obviously a lot of involment in terms of oversight agreements IP how this is all going to work the reality is us needs China China needs us that it's just you could you know talk many ways but in terms of chips and in terms of US tech infrastructure from Nvidia to Apple to Tesla to Microsoft if you I think a negotiation is ultimately it's going to be a balancing act but I believe you get to a much better place 69 months from now which is why I believe like Tech being oversold on like fears and ter look trump it all goes back to like the headline risk is there but it's trying to see through what that ultimately means especially when it comes to China according to Lura while nvidia's strategy execution is Flawless with fiscal 2025 revenues soaring to $ 130.5 billion the anticipation of continual exponential growth might need a reality check with a heavy Reliance on Titanic customers like Microsoft meta and Amazon constituting a third of its Revenue Nvidia confronts a potential saturation point in AI chip demand it's the classic supply versus demand tail told a new with companies scrutinizing their Returns on investmen begin with nvidia's quarterly beat AI chips fueling a 78% jump in Revenue current quarter sales guidance also above consensus Jensen Wong calling demand for Blackwell quote amazing take a listen to what he told John Fort last night feelings about Blackwell is better today than it was at last quarter and the reason for that is because we of course ramped up into production uh we exceeded our Target um and uh the teams did an amazing job as you recall we had a hiccup in our design flaw in Blackwell that we found uh early on last quarter or quarter before that and we recovered tremendously well and I'm very proud of the team for that and so for those reasons I feel pretty great from an execution perspective a lot of desk notes on it today Jim Goldman says quote good enough yeah I mean Ben right just was we're going back and forth this morning and you can just say look it was a quarter frankly where it's a GPU business and the gpus number were beaten uh I I think that one of the difficulties of understanding it was the whole China stuff you can get involved in the weeds with China what matters is that uh the the Chinese initiative is Child's Play deep seat can't do it I think everyone has to start thinking what Blackwell does is it reasons so if you go on to ch gbt right now and you say uh is Walgreens going to get a bid from Rob Sweeney at Sycamore it would say syore is a company that does retail Rob Sweeney used to work at Goldman Sachs uh Walgreens is run by timworth and you'd be like well that's particularly worthless well what he's talking about is it's going to be reasoning it's going to say that's a possibility it might happen the balance sheet is not that good I might do what I do oh yes your name is I'm completely replaced right Mr Blackwell how are you actually now today it's alive and now they may split it into three once they actually are succeeding in buying it although it's a few weeks away I'm not talking about Walgreens right now let's get back to Nvidia well I'm just saying okay that it's maybe John did a great job and it's really important to try to figure out what happened with the narrative when I speak with the company The Narrative was frankly they were shocked that China the China deep seek would have played any role given the fact that all the big hyperscalers had placed all these orders all knew about deep sea they're much more into another world uh a postt train world they're literally in a world where they want to have a robot robot comes into a warehouse and the robot looks at the warehouse and says you know what I got to put this on a truck uh I have to go around this corner I have to lift it up I got to be very careful I don't want to damage the Box whereas right now the robot says tell me what to do the next robot says okay here's how I'm going to do it and that's where we are and that takes us a whole different level of compute Nvidia also faces the delicate Tango of profit margins the company's Relentless Innovation sees new GPU models like the forthcoming Blackwell keeping profits yo-yoing between boom and moderation often settling around 71% due to costs despite these Market Tremors Laura while not a doomsayer advises cautious optimism with a neutral stanc remember they're both accelerated Computing and generative AI the compute is so fast that they can actually do things right now uh Jensen's famously saying it's so slow I mean to us it's fast but it's a parlor game to him and this is something that's industrial and will replace all of every bit of computing we have right now meantime as they move past this I think they called it a hiccup regarding black well once it rolls though Jim is this margin guidance into the mid 70s it's good enough I think that it'll be even better than that you know if you go back one of the ways to look at this is one of the things Jensen told me if you go back to last year at this time this week and you looked at what the stock traded at on forward earnings you traded 19 times earning the stock always looks expensive and then when we get there the stock turns out to be very cheap so I could argue if this stock you give it a high you you can put a higher multiply on you get to 150 160 but the and David one of the problems is Ian BTF on that point by the way on the valuation point no don't be worried I'm just going to interject here don't hurt me I mean s I would never hurt you Jim 163 price targeted City for example is 23 times calendar year 26 okay that's very wise person that's exactly what I'm saying if you looked at it last year you would realize holy cow this stock turned out to be very cheap now this is with a hiccup this is not you know this is not a smooth thing despite a deceleration in its Rocket Fast growth the core strength and strategic foresight that Nvidia embodies remain unshaken with a Marketplace built on Innovation and resilience nvidia's current valuation marks an intriguing entry point amidst Global Tech shift
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