저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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그랜섬은 현재 채권·미국 주식·부동산 등 여러 자산이 동시에 버블 상태라고 경고한다. 일본 1989년 버블 붕괴 후 30년 넘게 회복 못 한 사례를 들며, 미국 주택가격은 2007년 이후 최고 수준 부근이고 S&P500 PER은 약 35배로 역사적 평균을 크게 상회한다고 주장한다. 2008년 위기는 주택 버블이 주식시장까지 끌어내린 결과였고 중산층 자산 손실이 컸다고 설명한다. 금리는 역사적 최저 수준이며 채권은 실질 마이너스 수익을 준다고 본다. 전체적으로 버블 붕괴 위험을 강조하지만 구체적 매매 타이밍이나 1~3개월 방향은 제시하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
what you want to avoid is what Japan did in ' 89 Japan had the biggest bubble in history I believe bigger than the South seat bubble and that was Jeremy Grantham is a billionaire investor and one of the most closely followed voices in all of Wall Street he is the co-founder and chief investment strategist of GMO an investment form with well over 100 billion in assets gram has never been afraid to speak his mind when it comes to calling a bubble having successfully called the tech bubble of the early 2000s and a great financial crisis in 2007 and 2008 now Grantham is warning that these prior bubbles pale in comparison to what's happening currently in real estate markets across the world here's what he had to say what you want to avoid is what Japan did in ' 89 Japan had the biggest bubble in history I believe bigger than the South seat bubble and that was in Landon real estate and the old Story the land under the empress Palace was worth more than the whole state of California we spent two days actually asking and digging and it was it literally was first of all it's a big palace with great palace grounds and secondly downtown Tokyo all around it was selling for you know four five six times downtown Manhattan and the numbers worked out just amazing simultaneously they had the biggest Equity bubble of any important Market there are some flaky tiny markets that don't count but of any major Market that's the biggest bubble of all time at the time we were told it had gone 65 times ends there's always historical revisionism in the day that you have to be a little careful but at the time it was clear everybody agreed 65 times ends which is pretty remarkable and it said never sold at over 25 times before so that's the thing that makes every value manager wake up sweating in the middle of the night is Japanese stocks anyway they managed to do both of these at the same time and 31 years later the land is not back real estate's not back and socks are not back to where they were this was a loss of perceived wealth so profound that you have to congratulate the Japanese for not going into depression and people talk about the last decade but how was the last decade where they actually inched forward they actually did not go even backwards for the decade when you're taking that kind of loss of wealth you're in trouble when we think about Japan's bubble in 1989 it's easy to view it as something distant an isolated event in an entirely different culture and economy but the reality is the conditions that led to Japan's economic collapse aren't as foreign as we might think here in the US we've witnessed some of the same patterns play out and we are not immune to the same risks take a look at the US housing market in 2007 it wasn't as Extreme as Japan's but the bubble that burst here triggered the Great Recession leading to trillions of dollars in Lost household wealth millions of Americans lost their homes jobs and Financial Security if we compare that crash to Japan's the underlying cause was eerily similar unsustainable asset inflation driven by excessive speculation and unchecked borrowing now let's consider what's happening today according to the case Schiller index us home prices have soared nearly 20% year over-year with the ratio of home prices to median incomes mirroring the 2006 Peak sound familiar we're witnessing another inflating right before our eyes not just in housing but also in the stock market the S&P 500's price to earnings ratio is hovering around 35 far above historical Norms this isn't just Theory historical data shows us that when valuations climb to such Heights a correction is inevitable Robert Schiller a Nobel prizewinning Economist has documented how every time the US market reaches a PE ratio of over 30 a major downturn for follows within a few years we're heading into dangerous territory again but here's the global perspective when the US sneezes the world catches a cold our markets are so interconnected with Europe China and beyond that a crash here will send shock waves everywhere just look at the Ripple effects of the 2008 crisis Global markets tanked and it took years for most economies to recover if we don't start preparing now understanding the patterns of history and addressing the vulnerabilities in our financial systems we risk repeating the same mistakes we're not just talking about economic downturns we're talking about wiping out generational wealth stalling Innovation and leaving Millions vulnerable to financial ruin the warning signs are all there the question is are we paying attention now in the so-called great financial crash which irritates me as a title because I think it was a housing bus the housing market had this perfect three sigma one in 100e outlier bubble had been very very stable as historically so to get to that level it only had to go up only he says about 40% or so in 2 to 3 years which it did and then it gave it all back but the trouble with 2007 housing bubble is it took the stock market with it the stock market was not sensationally overpriced but it was a big overpriced bull market it was not in itself the bubble the housing market was a bubble a beautiful magnificent bul and if you look at it it's perfectly round it goes up for three years it goes down for three years s same speed and it goes all the way back where it came from and the housing bubble inflicted about $10 trillion of loss of pered value so one minute you thought your house was worth 400,000 3 years later you were told it was worth 550,000 3 years later you were told it was 400,000 and 2 years after that 350,000 so you had lost an enormous asset and housing markets are much more D because more people own them the middle class in particular that owns very little stock owns a lot of Housing and it really when you lose that value you skip the trip to Portugal and you realize you can't send your second son to private school and it really flows through the system don't do it the 2007 housing bubble is often referred to as the great financial crash but grant them is right to be irritated by this title it wasn't just a financial Market issue it was deeply rooted in housing a sector that directly impacts everyday Americans think about it housing isn't just an investment it's where people live raise families and build their lives when the housing market collapses it's not just numbers on a stock chart it's the loss of homes dreams and Financial Security the effect on middleclass Americans was devastating unlike the wealthy who could weather the storm with Diversified portfolios the average household is much more dependent on the value of their home according to the Federal Reserve home ownership repres presents nearly 60% of total wealth for middle-income families so when property values collapsed it wasn't just an investment loss it meant fewer vacations canceled education plans and tightened budgets if you're looking for an example consider this chart of us home prices from 2000 to 2010 the rise is sharp but the fall is equally steep the recovery slow and painful especially for those in the middle income bracket The Fallout from the housing bubble didn't just just affect homeowners it rippled throughout the economy leading to job losses reduced consumer spending and an entire generation struggling to recover financially the danger with bubbles like this is that they erode the financial foundations of ordinary people not just Wall Street this is why understanding these Cycles is crucial not just for economists or investors but for everyone with a stake in the housing market essentially all of us so what do we have this time we have of the four major asset glasses on the planet we have three and a half in bubble L we have Jim Grant would say the most overpriced bond market and the lowest rates in the history of man could go back 4,000 years there was never a time when so much had a negative return where you pay the government to take your money so that's number one number two we're a contender for the highest pric us Equity Market history I would say a majority of bubble experts think this is now slightly higher than 2,000 which was epic and some people do not but at least we can all agree it's a contender and then we have real estate and real estate was kind of offscreen until a few minutes ago and suddenly on some of the databases it has risen 20% in the last 12 months as sh series a little more conservative lags quite a bit I think it's only UPS 13 but the other series perfectly seriously done up 20 is the sharpest ride sharper than the 70s with inflation and sharper than the housing bubble of 2005 and what that means is metric we hero worship is multiple of family income how much does the median house for one in the middle how many multiples of the median family income is it's a nice stable Fair metric it used to be in America that we'd sell at three times family income and in the bubble we kind of went to four and a half or so and then back and we are now at the multiple of family income that we were in' 06 the very peak of the housing bu we're back now the rates are very low so all being well you can quote afford it what do you CA Forge do if you're a beginner is buy it in the first place what Grantham is highlighting here is a critical warning we're not just looking at a single bubble housing equities or bonds but multiple bubbles simultaneously it's a perfect storm brewing across several asset classes and history tells us that these bubbles don't pop gently let's break it down when we talk about Bond markets being at their most overpriced in 4,000 years we're talking about a financial landscape that's entirely out of balance people are paying governments to hold their money that's right paying for the privilege of losing purchasing power over time when interest rates are this low it inflates asset prices across the board and that's exactly what we're seeing in the US Equity Market by many measures it's now even more expensive than the infamous doc bubble in 2000 remember how that end Ed now look at the real estate market house prices have shot up 20% in just 12 months a pace we haven't seen since the 1970s for perspective the case Schiller home price index which tracks home prices shows a 133% rise and that's considered conservative what's even more alarming is that housing affordability measured by how many times the median income it takes to afford a median priced home is now back to the peak levels we saw in 2006 just before the housing crash here's the problem while low interest rates make mortgages more affordable on paper the reality is far different for first-time buyers they're priced out of the market before they even get started think of it this way if you're a new home buyer how do you afford a house when it costs nearly five times your family income it's an unsustainable setup and we've seen where this leads the lesson here is Stark bubbles don't last whether it's bonds stocks or real estate when these markets become detached from the fundamentals like how much people earn or the real value of goods and services we're setting ourselves up for a fall the scary part is that when multiple markets are in bubble territory simultaneously the Ripple effects of a collapse could be even more severe we need to approach this moment with caution recognizing that historical patterns have shown us time and again that what goes up in an unsustainable way must inevitably come down the real question is are we prepared for that impact so there you have it make sure to hit that subscribe button because it is my goal to make you a better investor by studying the world's greatest investors talk to you again soon
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