저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
그랜섬은 AI 같은 중요한 기술일수록 거품이 필연적이라고 주장한다. 철도(1873 공황), 닷컴 버블(아마존 -92%, 회복에 10년) 사례를 들어 '위대한 발명의 역설'을 설명한다. 현재 매그니피센트 7과 나머지 493개 기업 간 밸류에이션 격차가 닷컴 정점과 같다는 모건스탠리 분석을 인용하며, 엔비디아 중심 AI 버블 붕괴 가능성이 매우 높다고 본다. 버블 붕괴 후 회복에 13~31년이 걸린 사례를 들어 시간 손실이 가장 큰 위험이라고 강조한다. 개인투자자는 현금 대기 등으로 대응할 수 있다고 제시한다.
다듬은 글
The more serious a new technology is, the more obvious it is that it's serious, uh, the more guaranteed you are to have a bubble. So, just think about it. You But what if I told you that the exciting technology you're invested in is actually the shest way to lose your money. Those are the words of financial historian and legendary investor Jeremy Grantham.
And it's a warning most investors will never hear because the very system that should be giving you this warning is designed to quietly lead you off a cliff. In this video, we'll uncover the dangerous truth behind the current artificial intelligence craze using insights distilled from Grantham's decades of experience.
When might the AI bubble burst? How can we survive it? We will search for the answers. Not only that, but we'll also learn the biggest lie in the financial markets. How our own minds play tricks on us. and most importantly, how to protect ourselves from a trap that even professionals fall prey to. By the time you finish this video, the way you see the markets will never be the same.
People have the feeling that if something comes in that's new and brilliant um that you don't have to worry about a bubble. It's only if it's hype and it's underneath the surface, not not serious, then you have to worry. And that's absolutely not the case. The more serious a new technology is, the more obvious it is that it's serious, uh, the more guaranteed you are to have a bubble.
So, just think about it. You're you're dealing with the railroads. Everyone who isn't brain dead looks at the consequences of railroads expanding rapidly and sees that it will change everything, increase productivity, and and be an enormous boost to the long run well-being of the economy. And therefore the ordinary person would love to invest uh because anything that important is bound to make them money they think.
And of course that is absolutely true in the very long term absolutely untrue in the short term. So what happens they don't build one railroad track between uh leads and Manchester two of the great industrial centers of the industrial revolution. They build six tracks, four four at least of which are redundant and and the fifth one isn't that much good.
Uh and the sixth one, of course, is brilliant and everybody loses their shirt. It was precisely the fact that it was obvious and hugely beneficial that guaranteed everyone would invest and everyone would lose money. This idea which Grantham calls the great invention paradox runs completely counter to our intuition.
But history is a graveyard of proof for this paradox. Let's look at some examples. For a moment, picture the 19th century. Railroads were the internet of that era. The idea of investing in this revolution was so appealing that people frantically rushed to buy railroad stocks. It was as if anyone not buying these stocks was considered crazy.
And the result, in Grantham's words, they built not one but six railway lines between Leeds and Manchester. This was one of the greatest consequences of overinvestment, unnecessary capital expenditure, and destructive competition. As a result, one of the first bubbles in history burst. You may have heard of it as the panic of 1873.
Yes, railroads changed the world, but most of the initial investors who funded this change lost everything. Now, let's fast forward a hundred years. The stage is the same, only the players have changed. The internet, the dot bubble, the new paradigm story was in vogue again. Companies with no profit or even revenue were going public.
Their valuations multiplying in a single day. Simply having.com in your company name instantly boosted your value manifold. Many of you will remember this era. The internet was the darling of its time. And who was the winner of that period? As everyone knows, Amazon. But from the peak of 2000, one of the more amazing companies, Amazon, went down 92%.
Okay, have you got that? Check it. 92% decline. Yes, it had just gone up eight or nine times in a couple of years. And yes, it inherited the world after that, but I assure you, it is no fun going down 92%. Amazon had to wait a full 10 years to return to its peak price. Hundreds of other companies like pets.com and webvan simply vanished.
The lesson of history is brutally clear. Just because a technology will change the world doesn't mean its investors will make money. In fact, the opposite can be true. But despite all this logic, why do people fall into the same trap every time? The answer lies with the person sitting in your chair, you and me.
The answer is deep within our brains. And I have only two lessons. One of them is that Homo sapiens is is hugely tilted to wanting good news. A desperate preference for good news over bad news. Why not? Uh I I I get that. And and the other is they have no interest at all in the future. They they extrapolate today's conditions forever.
Grantham's two lessons are the cornerstones of behavioral finance. First, the optimism bias. Our brain is wired to hear positive news and ignore the negative. Neuroscience studies show that participating in a rising market triggers the same neural pathways in the brain associated with reward and addiction.
Second, the recency bias. We tend to assume that whatever has happened recently will continue to happen forever. This causes us to do the exact opposite of the buy low, sell high mantra. We see what has already gone up as safe and we add fuel to the fire expecting it to rise even further. When these two individual biases combine with social dynamics, they become explosive herd behavior.
When you hear stories of your neighbor or friend getting rich off a stock they bought, your logic shuts down and the fear of missing out FOMO kicks in. Think honestly for a moment. Have you recently made an investment decision thinking everyone is buying it, they must know something? Share with us in the comments.
It will be a testament to how human we all are. But if these psychological traps are so obvious, why don't professional investment managers warn us? This is where the dirtiest secret of the game is revealed. On rising earnings, this was a very painful experience, lasted for two and a quarter years. It is so difficult, in fact, that it's guaranteed that any large commercial investment firm will not attempt to emphatically call the end of a bubble.
It's it's a terrible thing to do. It's lousy business. The odds are not in your favor. The client's impatience will make make you regret it. It's called career risk. In the world of professional money managers, the biggest sin isn't being wrong. It's being right all by yourself. They are not judged on absolute returns, but against an index like the S&P 500 and against other managers.
If a manager sells these dangerous stocks to protect their clients, they will lag behind the index. Clients will ask, "Why did we only make 5% when the market was up 30%." And then take their money to another manager who jumped on the moving train, and your bosses start looking for an excuse to fire you.
This is exactly what Grantham and his firm GMO experienced during the.com bubble. Knowing they would eventually be proven right, they underperformed the market for over two years, a performance they described as unimaginably bad, and lost numerous clients. So, it guarantees that the average investor will never hear that the market is dreadfully dangerous and overpriced when it is in fact dreadfully dangerous and overpriced.
The system is designed not to protect you, but to protect itself. That's why professionals have to stay at the party and keep dancing until the very end, even when they know everyone will collapse to the floor when the music stops. So, what about today? Is this market inflated by the AI revolution any different?
This time, AI is a whole Well, it's at least as important, isn't it, as as the do. It's clearly important. It's going to be on heck of a ride. And pretty well everyone can tell it's important. Everyone is putting their money behind it. And some of the greatest believers are the richest companies who can't buy enough of the chips from Nvidia.
The um spending programs of the seven great companies that they're like each company is like an a medium-sized country. you know, 70 billion, 105 billion in a year, 40 billion, most of it ending up in the coffers of Nvidia. The bare market that began in 2022 changed course overnight with the emergence of chat GPT.
The artificial intelligence narrative became so powerful that it dragged the entire market behind a few giant companies known as the Magnificent 7. The parallels between today's market and the peak of the dot bubble in 2000 are chilling. According to Morgan Stanley, the valuation gap between the Magnificent 7 and the other 493 companies in the S&P 500 is identical to what it was at the peak of the dotcom bubble.
At the epicenter of this bubble is Nvidia. They are the company selling the picks and shovels in this AI gold rush. But will this protect them from the same fate as Amazon in 2000? and um one of the mag 7, one of the guys spending 60 billion a year on AI. It's it's not just possible. I don't think it's even nearly probable.
I think at the very least it's highly probable. It it is the guy selling the shovels at the peak of the gold rush, isn't it? According to Granthm, it's not just a possibility, it's a high probability because competition is increasing and the smooth road the Magnificent 7 once traveled is coming to an end.
But the biggest danger of a bubble isn't the first major crash. The real danger is the bottomless darkness that follows. And Granthm is now waiting for that bottomless darkness. What the listener will not realize is that we have spent half the time since 1925 getting back to the old high, major highs, and half the time basically moving forward.
Well, we This is how we spend half our time and the other half licking our wounds and waiting to get back. This is Grantham's most striking statistic. Since 1925, investors have spent half their time just waiting to get back what they lost. The danger that a stock bought at the wrong time can ruin your entire life is hidden in these historical examples.
After the 1929 crash, it took 25 years to return to the previous high. After the 2000.com bubble, it took 13 years to truly see a new peak. After the 1989 Japan bubble, it took investors 31 years to get their money back. A painful reality, isn't it? The real risk of a bubble is not the loss of money, it's the loss of time.
Imagine the money you save for retirement not growing at all for 13 years. This is a fatal blow to the power of compound interest. You lose everything you've worked for. It's highly likely from a historical point of view that you'll reach a point where you would rather have been in cash. So, is there a ray of hope in this dark picture?
Yes. And that hope lies in the fact that you are not a professional. Now, let me explain this path to you. But before I do, I'd really appreciate it if you'd like the video. I'm so proud that you've watched this far. Let's continue. First, we must know these things. One, great inventions create the most dangerous bubbles.
Two, the system is rigged against you. Three, the real cost is time. So, what should we do? This is our amateurs advantage. One, the freedom to get out. When we feel the markets are overly dangerous, we can do what professionals can't. Step aside and wait in cash. Patience is our greatest weapon. Two, we must learn from history.
The four most expensive words in finance are this time it's different. Three, we must focus on absolute returns. You don't have to beat the index. Our game is to fund our lives over the long term. Now you understand the deep wisdom behind that opening sentence. It's not a prophecy, but a repetition of history and human nature.
When you can see past the noise of the markets and understand these fundamental truths, you can break away from the herd and write your own financial destiny. Jeremy Grantham has laid out a powerful case for a historic crash. But what if he's missing the most important part of the story? What if the AI revolution is so powerful that the old rules genuinely no longer apply?
In our next video, we're flipping the coin over. We'll examine the bold case for artificial intelligence and why many experts believe this isn't a bubble, but the beginning of the greatest productivity boom in human history. Click the screen to hear the counter argument and be sure to watch that video as well. Thanks for watching.
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