저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
필라델피아 반도체지수(SOXX/SOX) 52주 신고가와 엔비디아·AMD·브로드컴 등 AI 반도체 릴레이 상승을 근거로 반도체 강세를 주장. 월봉 이동평균 수렴과 이중 천장 돌파 여부를 기술적 근거로 제시. 메모리 반도체 사이클 반전(재고 감소, DRAM/NAND 가격 상승)과 2025년 피크 전망, 삼성전자 외국인 지분 53%를 긍정 근거로 듦. 내년 상반기까지 증시 랠리 지속을 예상하고 FOMC 금리 동결 가능성을 높게 봄. 마이클 버리 숏 실패를 인간 지표로 해석.
다듬은 글
Which sector will lead the next stock market rally? The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is showing great strength, hitting a 52-week high. It has reached its highest level since January 2022 and has even surpassed its previous high. Just as semiconductors, led by Nvidia, led the index rally, let's take some time to look into the sectors that will directly generate profits for us.
I have several criteria for selecting leading stocks. First is the issue of valuation—whether it is cheap or expensive. This applies to both the index and individual stocks. Next is supply and demand—specifically, how strongly buying pressure is coming in. Then there is chart analysis. I have already discussed how to find leading stocks through chart analysis in my online course on loss-free stock investing; students must practice this process every single day.
Additionally, there is a method to identify the trends driving the current era and to find the next bullish sector based on the economic cycle. The current market has been driven by AI. Led by MBD and Nvidia, which have directly benefited the most from AI, the semiconductor sector as a whole is showing very good performance in terms of the current big cycle chart and supply and demand.
Representative semiconductor index ETF in SOXX Now, there are many people saying that the current double top is dangerous. Is this the peak of the double top, or is it a point where a new all-time high could be reached? I will share my thoughts later. The Sachs ETF is composed of famous semiconductor companies.
It includes a large number of very well-known stocks such as AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, and Intel. In particular, among these, AMD and Broadcom are hitting 52-week highs. This 52-week high is extremely significant. It is impossible to reach such a high without strong momentum. In the case of Nvidia, it has already led the last bull market.
This means that these stocks account for a significant portion of the portfolio. And regarding memory semiconductors, such as Micron—I view the memory semiconductor cycle very favorably—these 10 stocks account for 59%. Furthermore, they are all companies that benefit from the AI industry, and they are all showing upward earnings growth driven by these benefits.
Now, let's take a look at three companies. Here is the monthly chart for Nvidia. Nvidia is the only major corporation that has directly benefited most significantly from the AI industry; there is no other company whose earnings have surged so dramatically directly like this. The AI industry's This chart pattern appears because it has directly benefited.
It has already surpassed its previous high from 2022 in an instant. It has more than doubled from the $100 range to the $470 range— over 400%. What about AMD? It is currently closely chasing Nvidia. Its stock price has risen sharply recently due to AI, the resulting earnings growth, and especially the release of new products.
Although it has not yet reached its previous high, the recent trend is strong. Having surpassed the previous high, it has hit a 52-week high. Here is Broadcom's monthly chart. It is tremendous; you can feel it just by looking at it. The fact that it shows this pattern on the monthly and daily charts means the sheer magnitude of its strength is different.
Now, Citigroup has changed its recommendation to "buy." In particular, the approval for the VM acquisition took place in China. It is a company directly benefiting from earnings and AI growth. Citigroup has set a target price of $1,200. It is currently at $172, opening up a 12% upside. It has easily broken through its previous high as well.
If you look closely, starting with Nvidia, a relay rally is continuing with AMD and Broadcom. When one hesitates, the other surges. It is driving the semiconductor index through a relay rise in this manner. Another reason I view semiconductors favorably is that Michael Burry shorted the semiconductor sector—specifically the Suggs ETF.
He shorted it here, but it has risen now, resulting in a loss. Michael Burry had previously shorted the SNP 500 and the Nasdaq, and those also resulted in losses. This serves as a human indicator and is one of the reasons I view semiconductors positively. A characteristic of Michael Burry is that he cannot get the timing right.
Ultimately, looking back, just like with Tesla, he does get the shorts right. However, after a long time has passed and he has cut his losses, he ends up with a huge short position. Even when he made a fortune by shorting during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, he held on for several years. He shorted too early.
There is a reason why people say that it is safe for a certain period after Burry shorts. Above all, the semiconductor market is growing tremendously, driven by the development of the AI industry. The semiconductor market is expected to rise sharply by 17% from this year to next, and by 15% through the next two years.
Especially The memory semiconductor market is tremendous. It is projected to grow by over 66% next year after falling in the negative this year, reaching its peak in 2025. Since the stock market is a "pre-emptive" market, this is expected to be reflected in advance. Pre-emption is already taking place right now, and the current rally is also part of that process to some extent.
In particular, there are many forward-looking predictions that the volume of memory semiconductors installed in AI semiconductors will increase rapidly. I have shared many positive outlooks on Samsung Electronics' future stock price in my recent videos, and the foreign ownership percentage has already risen to 53%.
It has reached the level seen in June 2021. Foreign investors sold off everything and then bought back up. They started accumulating a large volume, especially at the peak of the exchange rate. Next year is expected to be a year where Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will particularly benefit. Semiconductor equipment sales are also similar; while they experienced negative growth last year and this year, they will surge starting next year, reaching record highs across the entire process.
The cloud market is also massive. It is expected to reach 900 trillion won from this year to next, representing a 20% growth in exports. The AI supercomputer market is also similar, projected to grow by a whopping 22% by 2028. You can see that this cold weather is rapidly rising from this year through next year and the year after.
I have shown you this chart several times. If the semiconductor cycle hits bottom and starts to rise, stock prices reflect it in advance and rise beforehand. This means that the growth trend for next year and the year after is already being reflected in advance. When the semiconductor cycle hits bottom, stock prices are already in the process of picking up.
That is the time. In particular, regarding the semiconductor cycle driven by supply and demand for memory semiconductors, I have explained a lot recently that the basis for a turnaround from the bottom is that inventories are decreasing and DRAM NAND prices are all starting to rise. The fact is that a turnaround has already occurred in September, October, and November.
Furthermore, even excluding this supply and demand cycle, we are currently at the beginning of a big AI cycle. As the AI industry develops rapidly, a big cycle could emerge simultaneously. This is similar to the initial stages when PCs and smartphones were released. The key question is whether corporate earnings will increase directly through AI.
With PCs and smartphones, this directly connects to corporate earnings. However, currently, with the exception of Vidia and a few other companies, the cold weather where corporate capital is actually flowing in... The point is that it is n't significant yet; this is the crucial part right now. If you look at the monthly chart, it is very good.
The moving average arrangement and candles are all favorable, indicating a medium-term trend or higher. The important thing about the double top is whether it breaks through this point. However, it has already surpassed the previous high. It doesn't look like breaking through the high will be as difficult as expected.
The problem lies here in terms of technical patterns. It is currently in this state. Look, there is a high point here, right? If the stock price breaks through here and falls back down, there is a possibility that the price will drop significantly more than expected. There is a possibility that it will break this neckline.
However, unless it is a whipsaw, the trend could be stronger and move faster than expected. Also, regarding the SOX ETF, which is a 3x leveraged product, if you look at the monthly chart, you can see that the moving averages are all converging. It is in a convergence process right before transitioning from a downtrend to a uptrend.
Power is heavily condensed right now, and because it is leveraged, it drops more sharply when it falls. Even though the 1x product is near the previous high here, the impact is greater because it is a 3x leveraged product. So, we have only just reached the intermediate stage. However... The monthly chart looks promising.
It is a zone where trends and momentum are gradually converging, and once it starts surpassing previous highs, there is a possibility that the trend will be strong and move forward faster. So, how much further will semiconductor stock prices go? They wo n't keep rising indefinitely; there will certainly be a limit.
When will that be? The current semiconductor cycle and the increase in demand driven by the expansion of the AI industry are undeniable facts. It still appears to be the very beginning. However, the important thing is that the valuations (PERs) of these semiconductor companies have risen more than expected.
Even the SNP 500 has a PER above average. As I showed you, the companies have risen faster than anticipated, which is why their valuations are somewhat higher than average. The crucial point, as I mentioned earlier, is whether the expansion of the AI industry will directly translate into corporate earnings.
Just like with Dia, I believe we are in a transitional phase where this will actually translate into corporate performance. However, the AI industry is still in its early stages; there is still a long way to go. While there are factors driving stock price increases, there are also factors causing instability.
But for now, I expect the stock market rally to continue next year, at least until the first half. I mentioned that this is the case, so the semiconductor sector will likely move along with it. It won't be left behind on its own. There is a high probability that a value correction will occur alongside the index correction.
In other words, even if there is a short-term correction for the time being, it seems highly likely that the upward trend will continue. We just need to keep watching this. Also, there is an FMC meeting early tomorrow morning our time. We need to see what Powell says there and how the dot plot turns out.
Of course, since the CPI indicator came out in line with expectations, there does n't seem to be any major difficulty. However, because the job market has shown strength again, we cannot rule out the possibility of somewhat hawkish remarks. For now, the likelihood of interest rates being frozen is almost 999.9%, and it will depend on his remarks.
In particular, regarding Samsung Electronics, there are currently a lot of detractors. There are many people saying negative things, but as I mentioned in previous videos, Samsung Electronics rises very strongly and quickly when it goes up. However, that period is very short, and outside of that, the periods of sluggish correction and sideways movement are much longer.
Therefore, if you miss this period of rapid surge, you miss everything. Since we don't know when this short surge period will occur, this is ultimately a matter of waiting. Because such periods appear once every two or three years. However, as I mentioned, that phase for Samsung Electronics is not far off.
Ultimately, this cycle plus the AI Big Cycle— PC, smartphones, autonomous driving, AI, and cloud—will benefit the semiconductor industry from all of these. Just as people who sold pickaxes, tag, and jeans earned more money than the gold miners during the California Gold Rush, semiconductors are that kind of entity.
The KOSPI is significantly weaker than the US market. However, when a point like this arrives where Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix surge strongly, the KOSPI could also enter a phase of very strong and rapid growth. Ultimately, it is about waiting. There is no other way than to find good stocks, good industries, and good timing through study.
I will leave a link in the pinned comment, so please take away a lot of know-how from my loss-free stock investment lectures and I hope you receive great help in your successful investing. Thank you for watching this long video until the end, and I will see you next time with an even better video. Thank you.
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