저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Granny Shots ETF(GRNY) 출시 후 구조와 운용 방식을 설명한 인터뷰. 결론: 35개 종목을 여러 테마(사이버보안·밀레니얼·AI·Fed 사이클 등)에 걸쳐 보유하는 장기 보유형 ETF이며 분기 리밸런싱으로 동일가중을 유지한다. [운용 구조] 종목 수는 대체로 35개로 고정되어 왔고 분기마다 동일비중으로 리밸런싱한다. 연간 회전율은 100% 미만으로 세금 효율을 강조. 리밸런싱을 더 자주 하면 상위 종목 수익을 깎고 변동성은 줄이는 양면성이 있다고 언급. [종목 선정] 여러 테마에 걸쳐 있는 종목만 편입(최소 2개 테마). 정량 모델(DQM, 과거 JP모건 시절 개발)과 기술적 분석(Mark)을 결합하고 테마 적합성을 정성 검토. 회계 문제 발생 시 즉시 제외 원칙을 설명하며 과거 슈퍼마이크로 사례를 언급. [편입 종목] 상위 10개: Progressive, Apple, Abbott, Garmin, S&P Global, BNY Mellon, Costco, Palo Alto, Microsoft, Netflix. 엔비디아는 2019년부터 편입. 크라우드스트라이크는 AI·사이버보안 테마로 편입. Progressive는 밀레니얼 금융서비스 지출 성장과 계절성(PMI) 테마로 설명. [가격 전망] 이 영상에서 대상 자산(삼성전자, SK하이닉스, 금, 엔비디아 등)의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 확인되지 않음. 엔비디아는 편입 근거로만 언급. [투자자 소통] 주간 영상 제공, 약 3.5만 명 구독 리스트 운영. 손실 구간에서 투자자 이해와 보유를 돕기 위한 소통이 중요하다고 강조. 타이틀(Title) 등 외부 플랫폼과 제휴 및 국제판 Granny Shots 확장 논의.
다듬은 글
Right, let's talk about Granny Shots. Yeah. So, you launched an ETF. I told you not to do it, but I only told you not to do it because I'm so protective of you. What I said was, "Oh now he's going to have a quote unquote public track record that people are going to harass him about when the market goes down." But you didn't care.
You're not afraid of what people think. And and and you you plowed through and the thing was received pretty well. People almost a billion dollars in assets and you kind of just launched it. That's incredible. That's amazing. Thank you. All right, so let's let's for people that haven't heard your previous appearances here and are unaware of the concept here, these are stocks that you think are like layups basically a granny shot like shooting a free throw underhanded like Rick Barry.
Yeah. And you want to own it uh you don't you're not trading them. Yeah. So we we're trying to find essentially what's equivalent of like you know like your per your idea of permanent stocks. Um but we do rotate it. But the the reason we sort of have this idea is we have themes that like span multiple decades.
You know, cyber security, millennials, AI, Fed cycles. Okay. So your idea is that these are stocks that are enduring. The story behind that is is bigger than the stock itself. Yeah. They're linked to generational ideas. Okay. I love that idea. And we but we only add a stock that appears in more than one theme.
So you you so you want to say like hey these are the stocks most linked to cyber security but let's say that's 50 stocks but then we want to say is it linked to any of the other six themes. So it has to be appearing at least two themes because then we figured there's two legs to support why the stock so if one story goes away there's still it's on there for a reason.
Yeah it's anchored. Yeah. Does that mean that you wouldn't own a stock like Crowdstrike which is like purely in one theme? Well, Crowd Strike is actually a granny shot. AI and cyber security. Yes, that's right. You're good, Josh. Yeah. All right. So, I have a million questions. How many holdings? There's 35 stocks.
Is that static? It will always be 35. It's uh it's not a predetermined number, but has always ended up averaging around 35. How close are you trying to get the initial position waiting to the other waitings? Are we trying to equal weight or not? Yes, it's it's quarterly rebalance to equal weight. Okay.
And it would have done better as you would know if we never rebalance because Nvidia has been part of the Granny Shots list since 2019. But that's what you're you're telling people I'm rebound. In hindsight, would you have done a semiannual rather than a a quarterly? Because you're going to throttle the best stocks, but you're also going to reduce volatility.
So, it's a it's kind of a double-edged sword by rebalancing that frequently. Yeah. and it ends up being um under 100% annual turnover. Okay? So, it's not like we're turning over the portfolio and the ETF uh has the tax efficiency because no one's having to sit through capital gains uh through the rebalances.
So, that's advantageous. Okay. Uh so, it's all right. So, it's it's 35 names right now. They're roughly equal weighted and then during the course of the quarter they're going to move around of course. Yeah. So like for example your your top 10 names Progressive, Apple, Abbott, Garmin, S&P Global, Bank of New York Melon, Costco, Palo Alto, Microsoft, Netflix.
So you have MAG7 names in here, which makes sense. They probably address five themes. Correct. How does Progressive Corporation become the largest current waiting in the index? Uh part of that is just performance since the rebalance for insurance stocks are doing really well. Yeah. And uh progressive is actually linked to a seasonal theme.
So it is linked to uh the PMI power of Christmas. Uh no the PMI. So we we look at like what is correlated to PMIs for this period. Um so that's like what we call a seasonal rotation. Okay. But progressive is a millennial stock because u and I you know when you look at who like millennials will account for like 72% of all the growth in financial services spending.
Wow. So like so companies that are innovative are going to do really well because millennials essentially buy their it's like a growth industry within financial services. Okay. So progressive is of all the insurers that's the one that best represents that theme. Correct. How do you decide that is how much of this is quantitative versus like somebody like really looking qualitatively at these companies?
Um it's both. So we have a quantitative process. It's called DQM. So it it is actually it's the quantitative metrics. Sure. Yeah. Of my of all the work I did at JP Morgan, we we built a single quantitative model. And so that is what runs to improve the quality breakdown. And then we do have a technical view from Mark.
Okay. And then we of course look at the company, make sure it actually fits the theme. So we do it's a multi-step process. Are there knockout factors like if one of these companies says, "Oh we have to restate threequarters worth of earnings." Will you guys immediately get out of it so that there's like this quality?
Yeah. In theory, super micro in the in the research version of Granny Shots, it used to exist in it and it was a very big performer, but then as soon as you know there was auditing and compliance, it it couldn't qualify. So you guys will get people out of those names immediately if there's some sort of some sort of factor that is just like we can't be in this while that gets sorted out.
Now that's there was a draw down uh with super micro so but it it already produced a lot of returns for the granny. Okay. What kind of feedback are you getting from the uh investors in the there's probably a lot of people that don't buy your research but they're fans of yours because of you you appear and you make commentary so now people feel like they can like invest in some of your ideas.
Yeah. What kind of feedback do you get from those people? Uh it's been very good feedback. Um wait till the bare market. Yeah. Well there is a lot of handholding that's required as as an ETF. Huh. Yes. And so what we do what do you do webinars? I do a weekly video that is available to the public, but we have I think 35,000 people who signed up for the Granny Shots distribution list which you can from the website grannyshots.com and we push out a weekly video so they know what's happening to holdings and that's what you should use AI for.
You should not be forced to do that. Weekly videos a lot. It is. But we found people say it really helps them understand that what's happening with their money. It so it helps them hold the fund. Yeah, that's really critical for them. Yeah. So, we're not hiding that there might be some, you know, Palanteer hit or Nvidia hit, but then in their minds, they know that how to contextualize that and it's not a mysterious.
You know what else is useful about that in the in the process of talking about the fund over time, people could get a better and better sense of how you think about the the holdings themselves and the the way that you invest. Yeah. Like not just the companies specifically, but like what would make you sell it?
What would make right or what would make you keep a stock? So that takes time for people to really learn. Yeah. Like the in the video we just released, we explained the whole idea of millennials and how much they're going to represent of like babies born and cars and why if you did a similar generational bet with the boomers, you vastly outperformed the market.
So you want to find the stocks that are most tied to millennials right now. Is this the start of a product suite? Who who'd you put this out there? Is this Title with? Yes, we worked with Title. Okay. So, it's Title calling you like every day. Hey, Tom, your next billion dollar idea, please. Like, we're we're we're ready.
What do you got? Yeah. And it's Title and and many other providers have contacted us with International Granny Shots. I think International Abuelita, right? Spanish for Abita. You don't hate it. Small granny's. Small little granny's. Young granny's uh Tomid granny's granny aristocrats grandpa grandpa
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