Tom Lee: Trump vs. Elon Feud Doesn’t Change $TSLA Multiple Advantages | Market Dips Remain Shallow

요약 보기

트럼프-머스크 갈등으로 테슬라가 급락(고점 대비 약 7%, 트윗 직후 14% 하락)했으나 장기 구조는 유지된다고 주장. 테슬라는 EV 설계·제조, 로보택시(1/4 비용), 옵티머스 로봇 등에서 경쟁 우위를 보유. 최근 3개월 GRNY가 S&P500 대비 초과수익, 주간 GRNY +1.7% vs S&P +1.9%. 상위 종목은 팔란티어·오라클 등, 테마는 에너지·사이버보안. 시장 조정이 얕은 이유는 가장 미움받는 V자 반등 랠리이기 때문이라고 진단.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. lead portfolio manager for Fund Strat's US Large Cap Ranny Shots ETF, ticker GRNY. This is the update for the week of June 5th. First, let me cover some particulars. At the end of the period, price was $20.81, 81, net asset value of $20.83, and total assets of $1.12 billion. For the past week, Granny Shots rose 1.7% while the S&P rose 1.9% or roughly 22 basis points of underperformance.

02. 450 basis points. And as you can see here, in each of the last three months, Granny Shuts has outperformed the S&P 500. On today's macro, I do want to just focus on the feud between President Trump and Elon Musk and its effect on Tesla, which is a granny shot. The dispute has a lot to do with uh President Trump's one big beautiful bill.

03. Elon Musk has claimed it is expanding the deficit and it's wasteful and of course this would lead to a feud and it escalated fairly quickly on Thursday. It started with again the usual criticism by Musk and President Trump then said Elon was wearing thin and claimed Elon Musk was just upset because the EV mandates were eliminated.

04. Now, this enraged Elon Musk who called him a liar. And Trump responded by saying that they would end government subsidies and contracts with Elon Musk. And then Elon Musk took this another step and said that President Trump is in the Epstein files. And of course, um, this took it to another level. And President Trump didn't escalate it from there.

05. He just says, you know, uh, you kind of wish Elon Musk had left earlier. And then Elon followed up his tweet with another saying that he is going to decommission the Dragon spacecraft immediately. So of course uh this got uh many people worried that this needs to deescalate quickly. Now Bill Aman for instance said he supports both sides and that it's better to make peace.

06. And Elon actually responded that saying you're not wrong. And Elon showed some humor. This is a tweet about DNC headquarters. And Elon Musk responded but with a laugh. And even somebody with only 17 followers said, "This is a shame this back and forth. You're both better than this. Cool off and take a step back for a couple of days." And Elon Musk responded with good advice.

07. Okay, we won't decommission Dragon. So, it looks like things uh are cooling off on Elon Musk's side, but there was a lot of damage to Tesla's shareholders um with the started with Elon's tweet about the Epstein files. Um Tesla, which has been down roughly 7% from its highs, fell 14% almost immediately after that tweet.

08. And that's because investors thought this was actually taking this to a new level. And of course, I think Tesla investors are used to this. But if you take a step back and look at Tesla from its 2010 to now when it went from a dollar to $280 today, that decline that we're seeing recently really looks like it's just coming back to support.

09. So, I don't think the long-term picture really has changed all that much for Tesla. And let's just review the competitive strength. Tesla has a lead in EV design. a lead in manufacturing electric vehicles. They have a robo taxi product coming soon. It's going to start next week. And they have a competitive, vastly more competitive robo taxi design that costs roughly 1/4th that of the nearest competitor.

10. And Tesla is planning to launch or to introduce Optimus robots that actually have not only finger dexterity, but as you may have seen in some of these videos, a lot of movement dexterity. And of course, there are drones potentially in the future. So when you look at the suite of products that Tesla has, it is pretty unmatched.

11. And then there's the possibility that they may merge XAI, which is their AI unit, which also owns the platform X.com, formerly known as Twitter. And with all that, I would say that Tesla, of course, uh still holds all of its advantages. And so, we aren't too concerned about the decline. Now, I thought we'd visit uh a name that fell last week and we talked about which was FICO.

12. And that because it it became part of the bullseye of the White House and we said give it a week or two to see what would happen. Well, FICO had already started to bounce last week and in the past five trading days has gained another 6%. So it is now up 20% from its lows and so it's not great looking from what I'd say technically, but it still has a place in Granny Shots for now.

13. And now in terms of the broader granny portfolio, um the top five performers in the past week were Palanteer, Oracle, GE, Robin Hood, and Crowdstrike. The bottom five performers were Micro Strategy, Eaten Corp, Bank of New York, Arista Networks, and Cadence Design Systems. From a theme perspective, the best performing theme um has been energy and cyber security led by Palanteer.

14. and then our style tilt which is a seasonal uh product or sorry a seasonal portfolio. And bottom line just keep in mind this remains the most hated V-shaped stock market rally and I think that's what keeps pullback shallow. I'll speak to you soon. Thank you.