저자: TomLee · 외국인
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5/16 주간 Granny Shots ETF가 S&P500을 102bp 상회. 무디스 미국 신용등급 AA1 강등은 신호 약하다고 평가. 시장은 증오받는 랠리 중이며 신고가 돌파 시 강세 전환 예상. 매니저 언더웨이트·헤지펀드 숏 증가를 역발상 강세 신호로 해석. 비트코인 신고가가 S&P 선행지표이며 글로벌 유동성 증가가 동인. 과도한 타이밍 매매 자제 권고.
다듬은 글
lead week of May 16th. I want to cover some particulars first. Um, at the end of uh May 16th, the price of the ETF is $21.7, net asset value of $215, and total assets of $1.086 billion. Over the past week, Granny Shots gained 6.36%. The S&P gained 5.33%. Which means the Granny Shots outperformed by 102 basis points.
323 basis points, of which um since April, uh Granny Shots has outperformed by 843 basis points. I want to give you some thoughts on the market. Um, I think that this is the second week that I feel like things have returned to normal or the second consecutive week that the the stock market has felt normal.
And what I mean by that is um we haven't had disruptive events. For instance, there haven't been any tariff provocations, no controversial truth social posts, no Fed versus White House spats, no CEOs getting lambasted. However, we did get Ammood's downgrade of the US government from AAA to AA1. Now, this ratings action took place on Friday, May 16th, so just about a week ago.
But we don't believe there's much signal here. One of the reasons is that Moody's is the last to downgrade the US from AAA. The first one was the S&P standard and pores in 2011. That was a lot of signal. The second one was Fitch when they did this in August 2023. And of course, now we have Moody's. So they're really the third ones.
I mean, in some ways, let's let's be realistic. The stock market and the bond market would have already figured this out. Like I said, the bond market anticipated the ratings change and the US essentially lost its AAA status because of the way split ratings work in 2023. And realistically, the corporate cost of debt is largely unchanged.
I mean, even high yield has barely moved. Corporate earnings visibility is largely unchanged. Demand by consumers isn't really going to be affected by this downgrade. And I think bears want the stock market to fall. But to me, this is purely just incremental. And I don't think there's much signal. And that gets us to this point, which is in many ways, this remains one of the most hated stock market rallies.
You know, it it seems like investors are looking for reasons for stocks to fall rather than for stocks to rise. And part of this is understandable. We had a black swan event in post tariff liberation day and a black swan event meaning an unexpected event and we had a 20% fall in stocks in a very short period of time but most hated rallies are not something new after the co low um that was a most hated rally when stocks began to rally after March 2020 many fund managers said we're still in a bare market.
And recall in the fall of 2022 after the markets made its low in October 2022, a lot of investors were saying that this was just another bare market rally. Investors are about to make a mistake again. So again, a much hated rally. And of course, we have the same chorus of skeptics saying, "Stocks have had a good bounce, but we think we're going to retest the lows." But here's the reality.
Investors flip bullish as soon as you make an all-time high. So in other words, investors generally fight after a decline, they'll fight the rally until you make a new all-time high. So basically, what happens? Well, at a new high, they turn they turn around and become bullish. And I think that that's going to happen.
That as soon as markets make a new all-time high, they turn bullish. And here's where things stand today. We're more than 17% above the lows and only 3% away from the highs. So, it won't take a lot for investors to turn bullish if we can reattain that 6147. So, is there firepower to drive this? Yes.
Um, for instance, in the latest Bank of America fund manager survey, the US stock market is the most consensus underweight. In other words, most fund managers agree to underweight the US. Well, that's a contrarian signal to me because when they're all underweight US, that means that you've priced in a lot of bad news.
Similarly, hedge funds have increased their short futures exposure on stocks at the fastest pace in more than a decade. Again, to me, that's a contrarian bullish signal because you've already seen people position for stocks to fall. And I think at a minimum, this keeps pullbacks shallow in the stock market.
One of the leading indicators for stocks is Bitcoin. And Bitcoin hit an all-time high this week and it's continue to power through that. So Bitcoin's prior all-time high was January 2025 at 109,000 and on May 21st, Bitcoin made a closing high above that level and has continued to power higher. I think that's a leading indicator for the S&P because Bitcoin peaked about a month before the S&P did.
And they're both being driven by the same thing that global liquidity is increasing. And this tweet by Ral Pow really highlights this the relationship between Bitcoin and M2. As for Granny Shots, now when we break it down by themes, again, there's seven themes in the granny shots. Uh seasonality is the best performing relative to the S&P outperforming by 320 basis points.
Again, this is led by Palanteer. The second is global labor suppliers and that's led by stocks like Tesla, Nvidia, uh AMD and uh the third is energy and cyber security and that's led by names like Anet, Palanteer, uh Genova, Crowdstrike and uh Palo Alto networks. Finally, before I sort of close this video, just want to remind you that really if you look back at the last two weeks, but really since April, one of the lessons we've learned is it's been it really paid off to actually not do too much uh take too many dramatic actions.
I know it's really hard instinct to fight, but it's a reminder of the rule of 10 best days that if you miss the 10 best days in the stock market, you really have dramatically lower returns. And I've talked about this before, but to to give you an example, since 2015, the S&P's returned 12% a year. But if you miss the 10 best days, you've actually had 10% performance or 2200 basis points of underperformance.
So, please remember to not time the market. That's it for now, and I'll speak to you soon.
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