저자: InvestingMadeSimple · 외국인
요약 보기
워런 버핏이 최근 분기 보고에서 애플 보유분을 절반 매도하고 현금 비중을 약 50%로 높인 것을 짚는다. 장단기 국채 금리 역전과 단기 국채 수익률 5% 수준을 근거로 현금 선호를 설명한다. 버핏지수 200% 근접, 연준 고금리 장기화, S&P500 연초 대비 강세를 과열 경고 신호로 제시한다. 결론은 버핏이 폭락을 예상하는지 혹은 은퇴 준비인지 시청자에게 묻는 형태다.
다듬은 글
hey guys welcome back now Warren Buffett is arguably the world's greatest investor with a net worth of around $136 billion he made his wealth mainly through the US Stock Market now every 3 months due to regulatory filings we get to see how Mr Buffett has been investing and this is something I've been personally following for the past few years normally his buys and sells are relatively small less than 1% of his portfolio however just last week he made an enormous change to his portfolio 30 times the size of what he normally does and so the question is does Warren Buffett see a market crash on the horizon now although he hasn't come out and said those exact words normally what people do is a lot more valuable than what people say and so in this video we'll be looking at the big move just made by Warren Buffett and now what his portfolio currently looks like then we'll try to uncover the why does he see a market crash on the horizon and then we'll finish up with a bit of a bonus a quick way to see over a 100 different investment portfolios and we'll look at a onee threeyear 5 10 and 20e time Horizon and we'll see which one ultimately has been the best okay so first up let's take a look at the massive move just made by arguably the world's greatest investor Mr Buffett and what his portfolio now looks like and so first thing to point out is the enormity of what he's just done so Warren Buffett's Burk sheia Hathaway portfolio each quarter we get to see what he's been doing so the latest one was Q2 for this year um this was last quarter then Q4 going back and what you'll notice is that when we look at it as a percentage change to his portfolio normally even though they billions of dollars they're normally a very small percentage of his actual portfolio and as we go back most of the time it's not even a 1% change so they're just little tweaks however just last week Warren Buffett made a change to his portfolio to the tune of 30% by selling half of his largest position in apple and reducing it by 50% so this was an absolutely huge move by Warren Buffett and it begs the question why has he done this so just jumping in and this is what Warren Buffett's portfolio now looks like and it's valued at around $280 billion so if you haven't seen Warren Buffett's portfolio before or you've not seen it for a while essentially it's made up of 40 positions now these are the top 20 and then for obvious reasons I've grouped the last 20 positions into just this last slice here which I've classed as other so really it's made up of 20 positions and in fact you could probably even just take the top 10 and pretty much have his entire portfolio so 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 so we can probably say the vast majority of his portfolio are just these 10 positions and the Epic move just made was reducing his Apple position by half so when it comes to portfolios it's always good to get the most information as possible as if you're missing one or two pieces it can completely change what you're looking at so knowing what his cash position is we can now take a look including his cash position so this is a more of a clearer picture so now we clearly get to see that he's 50% invested into the market and he's 50% in cash more precisely he uses short-term government bonds which we'll take a look at in a second so it's a cash equivalent now one of the interesting points is that historically Warren Buffett has recommended to be 90% invested and 10% cash and then over the past few years this cash position has been increasing but to be 50% in cash this is something not seen in a very very long time so speculators like myself are wondering what does Warren Buffett see so that was the latest big move this is his current portfolio now let's just take a little look at this cash position so this is the US Treasury yield curve and this is what you get by investing into government bonds and Mr Buffett is putting his cash position into short-term government bonds and right now the yield curve is broken and this is getting lots of headlines because the yield curve is backwards so you can lend your money to the government for 1 month 3 month 6 month all the way to 10 years 20 years 30 years and if you're going to lock your money away for 30 years then you should be getting the highest yield so the yield curve should be going from low a nice curve into high as you take more risk however right now the bond market is broken the yield curve is inverted and you can get the most amount of money the best yield by only locking your money away for one month which is crazy so there's no incentive to lock your money away for a long time so people like Warren Buffett as just taking massive amounts of cash they're just putting it into a one-month Government Bond getting over 5% and then a month later you still have access to the money and you can just keep rolling it over month later just roll it back in milking these super high rates and because Warren Buffett's cash position is so high when we look at what 5% of it is it comes out to a huge $4 billion so essentially by making this move Warren Buffett is making over a billion dollar each and every month by pretty much using a risk free investment so that is certainly one of the reasons why he's going Into Cash you get a guaranteed 5% by taking no risk now what else could be worrying Warren Buffett about the US Stock Market so three things to look at and the first one is the classic Buffett indicator and Warren Buffett has said that this is one of the best ways to see whether the stock market is overvalued or undervalued valed at any given point and essentially what it does it takes the US Stock Market and it divides it by GDP and then you get a percentage now I'd probably split this up from 1950 going all the way to the year 200000 as I think year 2000 marks the new age going from the Industrial Age into the digital age and you'll notice from the year 2000 the readings completely change so I do think we're now in the digital age and any data before this will quickly soon become irrelevant however in the dot boom when everything was first kicking off it set this massive reading of 162% so you'd have to say that this was very overvalued even for the year 2000 and a low point in the more modern era would be 69% however when when covid kicked off we can see it shot up to a crazy over 200% it did revert back down however right now again we're getting close to this 200% Mark so you'd have to say that the US Stock Market is looking very overvalued it's way higher than it was in the dot boom and then crash so this is certainly something on his radar number two this has to do with the US interest rate the fed's funds rate and what this shows is from the year 2000 when you keep interest rates very very high it leads to a nasty recession because High interest rates are not good for the economy it makes borrowing a lot more expensive and by borrowing this is how businesses grow and it's the businesses that employ people it's the businesses that need to sell product which make up GDP so high rates not good and what does it do lead to a massive crash year 2000 and in nasty recession and we see the same thing here High rates keeping them higher for longer this led onto the great 2008 financial crisis and a nasty recession this was the track that it was going to take before we had this covid crash and recession and then this is where we're at right now so this is again probably something Warren Buffett is keeping an eye on higher rates mean two things it's bad for the economy meaning it increases the likelihood of a crash and you get the benefit of Savers now become the best investors because you can get a guaranteed 5% by taking no risk so this two is certainly something that he'll be looking at and then number three it's what's going on with the S&P 500 right now and looking at the S&P 500 first of all we can see that it's done almost 177% so far this year and for context on this the S&P 500 normally does about 10% for the year so it's massively ahead now at one point only a couple of weeks ago this did get up to almost 20% and this was just in July so obviously there was a big pullback and this went down about 9% but again the market has bought the dip and just ripped it back higher so overall the S&P 500 for the year is well above 10% its normal average and we're only in August so again this is probably concerning for people like Warren and buff it the market is looking quite bubbly so those are the three warning signs probably been looked at by Warren Buffett and then as mentioned we're going to finish with a bit of a bonus looking at over a hundred different portfolios and seeing which one in hindsight has been the best one so there's a great website called lazy portfolio ETF and what they do is they put together all the most well-known portfolios so this includes just investing in stocks just investing in tech stocks it looks at the Warren Buffet strategy which is normally 90% invested 10% government bonds it has the 640 portfolio and then if anyone has ever studied portfolio Theory before you'll probably notice ones like the core 4 portfolio we have the Yale endowment portfolio we have the classic three fund portfolio The Golden Butterfly portfolio Mark Farber another billionaires portfolio we have Ray Doo's classic all weather portfolio and so on and so on and there are many many different kinds and we can look at the performance of all these portfolios over a time period of one year 5 year 10 year and 30 year and see in a few seconds which one has ultimately been the best one so pretty cool stuff now in the short term let's just look at the past year and it's saying that us momentum portfolio 100% invested has been best clearly showing that the US Stock Market is having an incredible year and is probably looking a bit bubbly and even gold has been in the top three in the short term with going up 20 5% this year now as investors we do want to think a little bit more long term so over a 5-year period we now see tech stocks the NASDAQ 100 outperforming everything else 20% but it's still US stocks and Warren Buffett that's coming in a close second now over a 10-year period it is still tech stocks it's still US stocks and Warren Buffett's strategy coming in top but tech stocks getting about 18% then over a 30-year period what do you think has done best well again it's tech stocks technology stocks with a simple one ETF strategy of triple Q has given almost 15% a year for 30 years and this is crazy followed by US Stocks so as you can see this has been the theme for not just 30 years but 10 years 5 years so very interesting indeed now the only thing is what this would look like if we start adding some crypto into the portfolios as if we look at Bitcoin well Bitcoin hasn't been around 30 years but for 10 years Bitcoin would be ahead of everything else 5 years it would be ahead of everything else one year obviously it's very volatile but it would be great to see what these portfolios would look like if we included some crypto Warren Buffett is arguably the world's greatest investor and he has just given a bit of a warning through his latest move he recently sold half his position in apple to the tune of $80 billion a huge drisking and now his asset allocation is 50% invested and 50% in cash and for context Warren Buffett is quite famous for recommending being 90% invested and 10% cash so he's clearly moved to a massively defensive position with interest rates still above 5% it means he's now making over a billion dollars each and every month pretty much risk free which is crazy so there you are guys hope you enjoyed now you tell me does Warren Buffett think a crash is coming or is he maybe just winding down into retirement let me know below however just remember to get rid of 100% of the comment spam and trading Bots that Plague YouTube comments we are trying out the new super thanks comment system so to get your question or comment read and replied to or just to say thanks then use super thanks below and for now just to say if you did enjoy anything in the video then drop a like and a big thank you to everyone who does and I'll see you in the next video bye for now
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