Cathie Wood: 21 Days To Economic Catastrophe 🚨

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결론: 미 부채한도 협상 지연과 은행 위기, 긴축으로 인한 유동성 축소가 위험자산에 불리하며, 비트코인은 안전자산 성격으로 강세를 보인다는 주장. 부채한도: 옐런 재무장관이 재정 고갈 시점을 6월 1일로 제시했고, 이전 예상(8~9월)보다 앞당겨졌다. 여야 예산안 간 격차가 크며 선거 해인 정치적 긴장이 크다는 진단. 결국 한도는 상향될 것으로 보나 기술적 디폴트 여부는 불확실. 투자 환경 변화: 과거 위험과 보상이 비례했으나 지금은 위험을 줄이면서 더 높은 수익(단기 국채·MMF)을 얻을 수 있는 역전 상태라고 설명. 정부 지출과 구축 효과: 은행 예금이 국채 기반 MMF로 빠져나가며 신용 창출이 멈추고 디플레이션 압력이 생긴다는 분석. 미국 은행 수가 많아 일부 은행 정리가 필요할 수도 있다는 언급. 유동성: 3월 M2 전년비 -4.1%, 4월 -5% 이상 예상. 연환산 기준 급격한 감소로 성장률이 하방 가속 중이며 2021년 2월 +27%에서 31%p 급반전했다고 지적. 비트코인: 과거 위험자산으로 분류되던 비트코인이 은행 위기 중 안전자산 수요로 1.9만 달러에서 2.9만 달러 부근까지 약 50% 상승. 탈중앙 화폐 시스템으로서의 가치를 강조. 전망: 위험자산에 대한 역풍이 계속되며 캐시 우드는 한 달 더 약세 쪽에 가깝다고 평가.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. the U.S banking system is in trouble Regional Bank stocks are crashing as depositors flee incentivized by higher yields the FED just made matters worse by raising interest rates yet again and then add to this mix the fact that the United States itself May soon default on its debt unless something gets agreed and quick now Kathy Wood of Arc investors just done her monthly update and so we'll take a look at the key points just made including why the US is not months away but days away from defaulting then the fact that liquidity continues to get sucked out of the system which is not good for risk assets then the investing landscape has just flipped into unknown territory and then we'll finish up with why Bitcoin and crypto are emerging as the beneficiaries in all this madness Okay first up you may have heard that in a few months time the U.S debt ceiling will be reached yet again and will need increasing or else as Janet Yellen has said we will get an economic catastrophe however this may be coming sooner than people think foreign this week Janet Yellen treasury secretary came out and said that she thinks that the government will run out of money to pay bills by June and so many people thought it would last through August but apparently tax revenues are not coming in as high as they thought and so the deadline is now moved from what many people thought could be August September to June 1st so this is all about the debt ceiling debate and we know there is a big divide between the president's proposed budget and what the house is coming up with we know they're going to raise the debt ceiling I think they've raised it every year except two I believe and the political Stakes are pretty high we are entering into an election year we think they'll figure it out I don't know if there will be a technical default or not but they're going to figure it out the debt ceiling will increase and the question is will they come up with a budget at any point in the near future next up something very interesting is going on in the world of investing now ever since I can remember investing has been like a coin with one side being risk and the other side being the potential reward and normally the more risk you take the more potential the reward however this has just flipped right now investors can get a higher reward by taking less risk so what is going on it seems like government spending is beginning to crowd out the private sector and what I mean by that this is related to the banking crisis actually if you look at what people are doing with their money as they leave Banks they're going into treasury Securities for the most part in Money Market funds safety and it is interesting that they think they're lowering their Risk by leaving the banking system and increasing their returns by going into treasuries that's not the way the world is supposed to work you usually increase your returns as you're increasing risk so the incentive to do it given the bank failures that seem to be occurring regularly nowadays the sensible thing to do is to go for the higher return and the lower risk deposits in a banking system can be turned round into making loans but funds flowing into money market funds backed by the government treasury Securities those can't do anything they can't be repurposed and so that's what I mean by crowding out um that's a really interesting point now when you deposit your hard-earned money into a bank they then use that money to make more money and normally this is through credit cards loans and mortgages and this actually adds to inflation as when they create a brand new mortgage essentially they're creating new money however with money market funds this is like a dead end so the money goes in but it just sits there and this is actually deflationary and maybe this is what the FED is wanting after all another question to ask ourselves is this maybe some banks in the U.S need to disappear what you may not realize is that there are so many more banks in the U.S compared to other places and what the US is doing is outside the norm okay next up not only is the Central Bank continually raising interest rates putting pressure on growth the money printer has also stopped in fact it's actually going in reverse as money and liquidity continue to contract and not once did the concept of money supply come up so it is interesting to note that M2 is accelerating to the downside M2 in the month of March was down 4.1 percent on a year-over-year basis and we think it'll be down five percent or more in April if you look at the first quarter and annualize it so from December to March and then annualize it money supply declined by 6.7 percent if you look at March alone and of course that's when the bank crisis started and you annualized that uh money supply declined at a 14 so growth rates are accelerating to the downside and we've never seen a swing in money supply like this one we've gone from 27 percent increase in February of 21 to now minus 4.1 percent so that's a 31 percentage point turnaround okay and to finish up what has surprised a lot of people is how Bitcoin and crypto has performed during this crisis now last year when Bitcoin and crypto was crashing down Bitcoin was deemed to be high risk however now it appears to be a flight to safety and then we've got Bitcoin and you know I think the shock of all shocks to those who do not believe in Bitcoin or think it's a Ponzi scheme or you know our blockchain not Bitcoin in their focus they're shocked that the Bitcoin has gone from 19 000 during the heat of the bank crisis in that second week of March to 29 000.

02. it's a flight to safety that's what this is It's a flight to safety and those who understand the value of Bitcoin as really the Bitcoin blockchain evolving a new Global monetary system that is not Hostage to any human decision makers more and more people want that and you know this is proof of concept Bitcoin came out of the ashes of 0809 and basically it was designed mind decentralized transparent auditable as an antidote a place again to go a monetary system to which investors can flee and that's exactly what's going on this move from 19 to 29 was not a flash in the pan we are still there with the regional Banks getting squeezed the FED continuing to raise interest rates and now the U.S maybe might be defaulting on its debt 2023 has had its fair share of problems and the summary is that everything is getting flipped the investing environment has flipped as now Banks seem to be high risk and now investors can get higher yields elsewhere the money printer has flipped now sucking money out of the system as the money supply and liquidity continue to contract and then Bitcoin is also flipped from being a high risk asset to now being a flight to safety up almost 50 percent since the start of the banking crisis so there you are guys hope you enjoyed now obviously the headwinds continue for high risk assets and Kathy Wood appears to be more bearish than bullish again for another month but let me know what you think below and for now just to say if you did enjoy anything the video then drop a like and a big thank you to everyone who does and I'll see you in the next video bye for now foreign