저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
2023년 투자 환경을 버핏 지표와 금리 인상 사이클로 분석한 영상이다. 결론: 2023년 상반기는 변동성이 클 가능성이 높아 신중한 접근이 필요하다. 버핏 지표(미국 시가총액/GDP): 1950년 이후 추세선을 기준으로 현재 약 +1 표준편차 수준이며, 2010년 이후 +2 표준편차 부근까지 올랐다가 조정을 받은 상태다. 과거 +2 표준편차 돌파 후에는 큰 하락이 있었다는 점을 근거로 추가 하락 가능성을 언급했다. 금리: 연준의 기준금리는 과거 50년 기준으로 역사적으로 아주 높지는 않지만, 1983~2022년 금리 인상 사이클 중 가장 공격적인 편이며 대부분이 최근 6개월에 이뤄졌다. 이 때문에 2023년 상반기 시장이 더 떨어질 수 있다고 봤다. 버핏 포트폴리오: 약 3000억 달러 규모, 49개 종목이며 상위 7개에 집중. 현금 보유 비중이 높고, 2022년 급락장에서는 매도가 아닌 매수를 했다. 최근 매수 종목: 에너지주 확대. 옥시덴털 페트롤리엄(약 +90%), 셰브론(약 +45%)이 상위 7개 편입 또는 비중 확대. 교훈: 버핏이 현재 보유한 종목보다 최근 매수 종목을 보는 것이 중요하다. 배당주 선호, 현금 보유를 통한 기회 대비 전략을 강조했다. 영상은 중간에 핀니코 은행 광고를 포함한다.
다듬은 글
this video is sponsored by finnico Bank a multi-award-winning trading and investing platform with 2022 now drawing to a close all eyes and now looking to 2023 and with investors facing one of the most difficult investing environments in decades including High inflation ever increasing interest rates and a recession looming it can be difficult for investors to know what to do and so in this video we'll be taking a look at arguably the world's greatest investor Warren Buffett and seeing how is Mr B Investing For 2023 and including what is the famous Buffett indicator saying right now then we'll take a look at Buffett's portfolio to see how is he positioning himself full 2020 three and then we'll highlight any key insights and takeaways lways appreciated okay first up let's start with the big picture view of the investing environment and we'll see what is the famous Buffett indicator saying right now with 2022 being a very turbulent year for investors it becomes even more important to build your Investment Portfolio on a solid platform well good news for everybody in either UK or Europe there is a very good option with finico bank named one of the world's best banks by Forbes finico is a multi-award-winning trading and investing platform and bank and here are three things I like about finico number one the stocks and shares I Surfer tax-free investing comes with very low fees especially the annual platform Fee number two investing on thousands of UK us and international shares without the currency conversion costs and then number three your money is protected the amount depends on where you live but in the UK it's 85 000 pounds and open an account before December 31 first and you'll get 500 pounds worth of trading commission to use in your first three months so starting things off with the Buffett indicator and name cell as Warren Buffett said it's probably the single best indicator to know where we are with stock valuations and basically it adds up the value of the US Stock Market and it divides it by GDP so the output of the country and then it kicks out a percentage and here you can see it goes back to 1950 and we get this nice historical trend line going through the middle and we get these over valuations under valuations where things are overbought and oversold so what conclusions can we draw well first thing to point out is that the highest that it seems to go in the last 50 years is this two standard deviation line and once it had broken that you can see there was a significant decline over the next decade and almost went to two standard deviations below then we have the infamous.com crash and again it just broken above this two standard deviation line and this time came all the way down close to one standard deviation below before recovering and then we went into the great financial crisis taking us down a lot lower now we've had this epic run starting 2010 which brought us all the way back up to two standard deviations above and we have had a big correction into bear Market territory but we're still sitting around this one standard deviation line so it certainly hasn't corrected back to the historical or anything below so for me this stays that next year we definitely need to proceed with caution as there's a very good chance markets could take another other leg lower especially with what's going on with the interest rate hikes so let's just take a quick look at that so as you'll know the fed and Jerome Powell has been aggressively increasing the FED funds rate and if you look back to 2019 it looks like a very aggressive hike however if we scroll out and look at the past 50 years then where we're at today is actually historically not that high in the past 50 years it's been a lot higher it's just that from 2010 investors have been treated to this long period of very very low rates and cheap borrowing that now it looks quite High having said that this shows the rate height cycle for 1983 88 94 99 2004 15 and 22.
and what you'll notice here is that it's the most aggressive rate height cycle out of all of these time periods and most of it has come in just the last six months so this says to me the first half of 2023 is going to be very turbulent and quite likely we will see the markets falling even further as it does take time for these rate hikes to get into the economy moving on to Warren Buffett's portfolio and here is how it looks right now so currently valued just under 300 billion and it's made up of 49 positions now if we jump just looked at this it looks like apple is a significant portion however the more pieces to someone's Investment Portfolio the better picture we get so I always go away and we can grab Buffett's cash position as well and when we add in the cache you can see it's just as big as his Apple position so one of the key points is that he keeps and holds a strong cash position in times of uncertainty a second point to note is that although his portfolios made up of almost 50 positions the vast majority is just held in seven positions so he's a big fan of holding a lot less stuff but higher quality and the third point is a mistake I think many new investors would make they would take a look at Buffett's portfolio and they'd probably try and copy and they'd look at Bank of America or Coca-Cola American Express and just buy them at today's prices but the big mistake is that many of these were bought many many years ago and in fact even decades ago so it's more important to look at what he's been buying recently now let's just take an example like Coca-Cola before you run out and buy Coca-Cola take a look at this so this is the stock price of Coca-Cola um going back all the way to 1983 and where do you think Warren Buffett made a significant investment it was all the way back in 1988 and from there he's made a cool 233 return so buying at these prices very different to these prices so what is recently been buying is a lot more important than what he holds so what has Warren Buffett been buying over the past year well he's been significantly increasing his investments in energy stocks one of the major ones being Occidental Petroleum and this is how Occidental has done this year has the world's been crashing Occidental is up still almost 90 percent and the second one is Chevron and again when everything's been crashing down Chevron is up 45 and you'll notice they are now in his top seven we have Chevron here and Occidental so those are the two that are the big changes over the past year and finally this just highlights what he's doing with his cash position so all the way to 2020 2021 he was holding a record amount of cash and you'll notice when all the Panic selling was going on Warren Buffett made significant Investments so he did spend a big chunk of his cash position in 2022 he was a buyer living up to his famous quote be greedy when others are fearful so after analyzing Warren Buffett's portfolio what conclusions can we draw well here are five number one he likes and continues to keep a strong cash position obviously to take advantage of any crashes and low prices number two in 2022 when everything was crashing Buffett was a buyer notice he didn't do any Panic selling number three for most people it's more important to take a look at what is recently been buying and not necessarily what he's currently holding as you make the money when you buy number four the biggest Investments he has been making over the past year is in the energy sector being Chevron and Occidental Petroleum and number five he really does like dividend paying stocks and this way he continues to have a strong income especially in a recession which also then fuels his big cash position so there you are guys hope you enjoyed tell me what do you think about Warren Buffett's strategy let me know below if you do live in Europe or UK then check out finico as it is a solid investment platform for your consideration ]
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