저자: 미상 · 외국인
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워런 버핏의 현금 비중 확대와 버핏지수(215%), 미국 주택가격 버블, 쉴러 PE(40대) 등 세 가지 경고 신호를 근거로 미국 증시가 과열되어 큰 조정이 올 수 있다고 주장. 버핏 포트폴리오는 주식 40%·현금 60%로 역대급 디리스킹 중이며, S&P500의 최근 3년 연 25%대 상승은 블로우오프 톱의 전형이라고 진단. 다만 조정 시 저가 매수 기회가 될 것이라는 낙관적 결론으로 마무리.
다듬은 글
Warren Buffett, arguably the world's greatest investor, is sending all investors a major warning. He's making big changes to his portfolio, likely anticipating another major crash in the stock market. And so, in this video, we'll be covering the three warning signs that show that the stock market is considerably overvalued right now and due a major correction.
Then what is Warren Buffett doing to his own portfolio to make sure he makes even more money in a crash? And then we'll finish with one of the major telltale signals that the market is moving into the blowoff top phase. Okay, so with 2026 just around the corner, let's start with the three warning signs as to why a major correction could be coming our way.
Okay, jumping in with warning signal number one. And where best to start than the Buffett indicator itself. One of Warren Buffett's favorite indicators which shows whether the stock market is overvalued or undervalued at any given point. And essentially, it just divides the stock market by GDP. So if there's a high percentage, this means that the stock market is overvalued.
And with a low percentage, it means stocks are a great buy. With this line being the average going through the middle here. So, I think people can instantly see that we're at a super high reading. But let's just jump back to this big spike here. This was the dot boom and it gave a reading of 160% which caused a massive crash slashcorrection down into a good buying opportunity.
Now, the 2009 financial crisis only brought us above the average before crashing back down, giving a great reading of around 70%. Obviously, since then, we've been on a crazy run. This was the record high set here where it got to almost 220%. So, I think it's fair to say anything past 200% would be a sign of a major bubble.
And where are we right now? 215%. So this certainly is warning indicator number one. Now warning indicator number two has to do with the US home price. And this is a great chart as it also takes into account inflation adjusted home prices. And you can see the average being down here going all the way back to 1890.
Obviously from about year 2000, this also has shot up as well. The last bubble gave a reading of 266 before a major crash. And then this is where we're at right now. Just another big bubble sign. And even Jerome Powell in the last Fed meeting was calling out the problem going on in housing. And then another way to look at it is the Schiller PE ratio.
So, it's the price toearnings ratio, but it's also inflation adjusted, so a better reading. And similar to the Buffett indicator, it's just showing a super high reading right now. So, the average, just to put all of this into context, is around 17. So, there's your historical average there. This being overvalued, this being undervalued.
And then once it gets really past about 30, this is when it's starting to go into a bubble. So just putting that reading on there. So now you can see touching bubble territory here. The 1929 great stock market crash there. Obviously it breached it here in the dotcom bubble. And right now with a reading of 40, this is your third warning sign that the stock market is very overvalued.
And this goes back all the way to 1880. So the big question is, well, what are the greatest investors doing about this themselves? Well, let's take a look at Warren Buffett's portfolio. So I jumped in, grabbed the data and have just put this together on his latest Burkshire Hathaway portfolio. Now the last time I did this, the position in Apple was almost 50%.
So he's seriously cut that back. But still half of this portfolio is in just three stocks. So, you'd have to say Buffett is still a fan on Apple, American Express, and Bank of America. And as he's close to retiring, a nice stock portfolio of $267 billion is pretty damn good. But this is not even half the picture as we don't just want to look at where they are invested.
We want to see what they're doing with their entirety of their money. So we also need to take a look at what is he doing with his cash and cash equivalents. So this is cash on hand and this is probably the major warning sign in one chart. Historically pretty low and then all of a sudden in the last couple of years he's really ramping up his cash position and getting out of the stock market.
And he really doesn't do this very often. And in fact, this chart is already a little bit out of date as it's 380 billion in cash. So it's more like sitting up here. So this is Buffett's warning right here. And then when we put this together to his total portfolio, this is a clearer picture of what he's doing with his own money.
Now, historically, Warren Buffett has said that as a rough gauge, it's good to be 90% invested and 10% in cash in case of any crashes. Last time I covered this was about a month ago and it was pretty much 5050. He was 50% in cash and 50% invested. But as of right now, he's gone even more in cash and it's now 6040.
And I'm not even sure Warren Buffett has ever been this low in stocks and this high in cash and cash equivalents before. So this is someone who is de-risking on a massive level. But the great thing is he still gets to win either way. If there is a big crash then he's able then he's got plenty of cash to buy the bargains.
And if the market just continues to grind higher, he's still 40% invested and making a ton of money from his short-term bonds. So, always good to keep an eye on Warren Buffett and see what he's doing. And to finish up, we're just going to take a look and see what does a blowoff top look like before the big crash.
Well, you don't want to see just a a slow progression up. A blowoff top obviously gains momentum and has a final crescendo. So, bearing that in mind, this is what the S&P 500 has done yearto date, just over 16%. And we have to remember that the historical average going back about 20 years is about a 10% return.
So, as long as the S&P is doing about 10% a year, then this isn't bubble territory. However, if we go back and take a look at the last 3 years, what do we see? Well, in 2023, the S&P did 26%. 2 and a half times the average. The blowoff top began, but surely this was just a one-off, right? Well, in 2024, it did another 25% 2 and a half times the average.
And then as mentioned this year, and this is with dividends reinvested, so it's closer to 18%. This is pretty much what a blowoff top looks like where it accelerates upwards into the blowoff top before the major correction. So definitely something to bear in mind. So let's wrap up, summarize, and I'll then I'll finish with the good news.
Warren Buffett, arguably the world's greatest investor, is sending all investors a major warning. The Buffett indicator is back above 200%. There is a major bubble in US housing and inflation adjusted PE ratios are also screaming overvalued. Historically, Warren Buffett has recommended a 9010 portfolio being 90% invested in stocks.
However, as of right now, he's only 40% invested. And the S&P 500's annual return is around 10%. And with the last 3 years of gains being 26% followed by 25% followed by again almost 20%, this is what a blowoff top looks like. However, let's finish up with the good news. And we have to remember that with investing, the money is made when you buy.
So even with the worst case scenario, this would present one of the best buying opportunities for a number of years. So there are guys, hope you enjoyed. Now, if you did enjoy anything in the video, then drop a like and I'll see you in the next video. Bye for now.
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