저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
21세기는 아시아의 세기이며 아시아 저축·투자 문화가 성장을 이끈다. 지정학적 긴장(전쟁, 무역전쟁)은 우려 요인이다. 전 세계 주식시장이 사상 최고치 부근이라 과열 신호로 보고 경계하며, 신규 투자자에게는 핫한 종목을 피하고 잘 아는 것에만 투자하라고 조언한다. 금과 은은 보험 성격으로 보유하고 은이 금 대비 저평가라고 본다. 비트코인과 암호화폐는 트레이딩 수단으로만 언급하고 본인은 보유하지 않는다. 아르헨티나는 과거 호황과 붕괴를 반복했다는 점을 상기시킨다.
다듬은 글
whether we like it or not the 21st century is going to be the century of Asia I mean it's already happening especially because of what's happening in China but there are a few billion people in Asia they're all smart save their money work hard and save for the future and love investing and if they start a successful company many people will invest in that company I mean you heard of Sony for instance when I was a kid growing up Japanese cars were a joke Japanese motorcycles were a joke not anymore you know the world changed a lot and the world learned and the world adjusted and that's going to continue as far as I can see next few decades are going to be the Decades of Asia yes other places will do well but the future is Asia I read the same press you do and I can see that there are various inry small Wars but if you look back in the past that's how big Wars started there would be a small War here and a small War there and people would ignore it the next thing you know those small Wars turned into big Wars today look terribly similar to what happened before the second world war when all these small countries were hitting at each other and the next thing you knew was out of control now I hope it doesn't get out of control again because if we have another War oh my gosh but you know as well as I do that we have a war in Ukraine right now we have a war in various other places so I am not optimistic IC that we're going to avoid Wars certainly in your lifetime history shows that when you had two top powers and one stable or stagnant and maybe even declining they have often clashed I'm not suggesting America and China will be at War but they have often in the past done so just because politicians always want to hit somebody else and show how tough they are and conceivably that could happen and I don't know why Washington thinks they have to control the world I don't know why they think they have to put sanctions on everybody I don't know why we have to have trade Wars but somebody in Washington thinks that's good the United States has been around since 1776 in all but 19 years since then we have been at war with somebody there's been a small War big war some War somewhere I don't particularly like it it doesn't do us any good but conceivably if America and China work together as we did for 20 or 30 years China made a lot of money we made a lot of money everybody would be better off I hope that happens again I have sold my shares in both countries I'm still long usbekistan and I hope I will buy more usbekistan I still am long China nearly every stock market in the world is at an all-time high or near an all-time high now I've been around long enough to know that when everybody is making a lot of money somebody better look out the window and get worried so I look out the window and I'm getting worried there's too much happening it's too much good times too much money around the world what always happens is everybody gets very happy many new people get drawn into the markets lots of you know young people they call their friends and say I've discovered this new thing called the stock market and it's fun you can make money and it's easy not just in the US just about everywhere look at Japan Japan Market was down for 35 years that's not a typo now it's making all-time highs so just about everybody in the world is join joed in now and who knows what's going to happen but I've been around long enough I've read enough to know that when everybody is making a lot of money and everybody's piling in it usually means things are going to go bad soon now I have not started selling short because the madness doesn't seem enough yet but I am certainly very worried one point I did a genius move I triped my money when everybody else was losing their shirts needless to say I knew I was the best there was and six months later I lost it all so the market has a habit of teaching what you don't know and that's what I would say to new investors young people be very worried be very careful and what I learned was while I knew a lot the thing I didn't know at that time was much about trading I knew about fundamentals I could do great research but I didn't know much about trading I assumed everybody knew what I knew I found out very quickly they didn't and it cost me money because they invested on what they thought and what they you so my advice to everybody is please don't listen to other people don't listen to hot chips avoid hot chips and invest only in what you yourself know a lot about now I tell some people this and they say but that's boring and my advice is be boring if you want to be a successful investor don't worry be boring and you'll probably be successful well I own silver here's some right here just to prove it to you but I mean you know as well as I do that gold is making all time highs and silver still down 40 or 50% from its all-time high now they often move together they move in tand at time so in my view buying something that's down 40 or 50% from its all-time high is better than buying more goat so it's that simple I know from history and you too that the world's going to have problems again of some kind whether we like it or not and when the world has problems I mean I'm an old peasant I'm from the backwoods of Alabama I know when there's a problem it's nice to have some gold under the closet have some silver in the closet because no matter what many people will turn to gold and silver in times of turmoil I hope I'm smart enough never to sell my gold and silver I'm hope I'm smart enough to buy more in the future could be a hot investment idea but it's certainly insurance if nothing else Argentina 150 years ago was the great success story in the Western Hemisphere you know people in Paris if if somebody Rich came in people would say oh my gosh that guy's as rich as an Argentinian argentinians were unbelievably Rich at times in history they've also been unbelievably poor at times and bankruptcy they have politicians at times worse than we do and that's hard to believe that anybody could have politicians worse than we do but at the moment the people running Argentina are doing a very good job my only problem is I've seen this before I've certainly invested in Argentina at times I don't have anything there I admire what he's trying to do I hope he can pull it off my problem is there have been four or five times in the last 100 years when Argentina has done extremely well and then collapsed I I'm not predicting it's going to collapse again I'm just reminding people this has happened before I guess I'm not smart enough I have never figured out the rationale or The Logical use of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies they're great trading vehicles I know a lot of people are TR of course many of them have already disappeared and gone to zero but if you're a Trader it's wonderful I am not a Trader I don't particularly like it I'm not any good at it because of that so I do not have long or short any cryptocurrencies and never have one of the things I learned was that I love adventure and so that has certainly shaped me yes if you can propose adventure to me that's going to be educationally well one of the great things about travel is seeing the world you learn a huge amount about the world and therefore about yourself too so I will tell you if you have the time and the money I encourage everybody to do as much travel as you can you don't have to go first class you don't have to stay in five-star hotels there are lots of ways to travel the world but you will be astonished how much you will learn about yourself and about the world and if you're an investor you will probably also find some good investors because you will see see things and you'll say oh my gosh look at that how do I invest in that you won't see that sitting in your apartment in New York
Comments 0