The ECONOMY Is Getting MUCH Weaker | Peter Schiff

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01. most of the tax cuts are geared around giving people more money to spend so the way tax cuts are supposed to actually grow the economy is not by stimulating spending and consumption but Savings in investment but cutting taxes for retirees and waiters and waitresses bartenders whoever works on tips I mean most people that earn tips they're struggling right now so they'll just use the extra money you know to buy to pay their bills that doesn't grow the economy what grows the economy is more investment more savings investment we're not going to get that much of that the marginal tax rates even though they come down they're not coming down dramatically but you also have to look at the impact of the larger deficits on restraining economic growth because when the government borrows money all of that money is at the expense of investment because the government has to tap into the pool of savings that might otherwise Finance real economic growth so when the government Cuts taxes and borrows money almost all the tax cuts go to fueling spending and all the deficit iits take away from investment and economic growth so it's not true that you could just slash taxes and have economic growth if at the same time you have larger deficits the way to have economic growth from tax cuts is to also cut government spending so you don't negate the benefit of the lower taxes with higher deficits and I think the bigger deficits actually are a bigger drag on the economy than the tax cuts are stimulus so what will actually happen if we get these tax cuts we will get bigger deficit but we will also get bigger trade deficits because people are just going to take their paychecks because they have more money now because they're paying less taxes and they're going to buy more imported products CU that's what we got to buy right you know because we're not making the products they're being made abroad it's not going to work the nomal numbers could go up but we've been having this fake economic growth ever since the 1990s with Allen Greenspan because all we do is get higher numbers like the Dow Jones and you know it's a little bit better now but the Dow Jones so far since 2021 is up a little over fourfold and gold is up Eightfold so what does that tell you was actually happening the market was going down the GDP if you measure it in Gold real money has been collapsing but if you measure it in fake money in dollars the GDP is going up you know all the pundit especially the Democrats they can't understand why Harris didn't win because the economy is so great just look at the government numbers and that proves it look at our strong GDP look at our low unemployment all these numbers are a function of you know inflation masquerading his growth the real economy is weak it's been weak for a long time that's why people are struggling that's why they have no savings that's why people are working two or three jobs just to pay the bills despite the fact that they tell us that the GDP is up and the econom is getting better so yes we could get more fake economic growth but at the end of Trump's term and all the problems he was elected to solve will just be worse and now that we're going to have to elect a Democrat because it's going to now we need change right we keep going Democrat Republican Democrat because you always want to throw the bums out because the problems keep getting worse because nobody wants to actually solve them because solving them requires some short-term pain Trump didn't promise any short-term pain he said you elect me and it will boom immediately it'll be a huge economic boom and you're all going to be rich that was what he was selling to the voters again it's everything is risk on right gold is risk off so people think the us econom is going to Boom the stock market's going to Boom why do I want to own a Safe Haven like gold when I can make a fortune in the stock market in this booming economy they also think that the strong economy is going to mitigate the rate Cuts so we won't get as many rate Cuts as the market might have thought so they think that higher interest rates are negative for gold also supporting the dollar we've had a big rally in the dollar since Trump won and so that is weighing heavily on gold also we've had some comments you know and speculation that the Brick Nations and other nations that were mov away from the dollar are now going to embrace it because they don't want to piss off Trump because he's threatening all these tariffs and so maybe because now we got a new sheriff in town that the move out of the dollar is going to slow and that the Central Bank buying of gold because if central banks try to be more friendly to the dollar to appease Trump and hey we're not selling our dollars right don't tariff us look we're your buddies if they're going to stop selling their dollars they don't have to buy as much gold so there's a lot of reasons that people are thinking think hey this is going to be bad for gold now look gold went up by about 40% during Trump's first term about 10% a year and so wasn't like you know gold didn't do well when Trump was president but I think it's actually going to do a lot better despite what the markets are saying right now I think the markets are wrong again on this I think a trump presidency is very inflationary but that's not bad for gold because the FED is not going to fight the inflation in fact if it tries Trump Administration is going to beat up the FED pretty bad and then put a in there when Pal's term is over if Pal doesn't cooperate because Trump wants low interest rates if you remember when he was president the first time he was very critical of pal for raising rates he demanded lower rates he wanted rate Cuts he wanted negative interest rates he was upset that Europe had negative interest rates and we didn't he wanted more quantitative easing and the only way to finance these tax cuts without skyrocketing long-term interest rates is to go back to quantitative easing so I think that this is going to be an INF AR 4 years and I think the short-term impact of the tariffs of kicking out the illegal immigrants and the tax cuts is going to accelerate an inflation that was already on the rise so I think the Dollar's rise is going to be shortlived just like Gold's decline Now by short lived could it go on for weeks could it go on for months sure I don't know like I don't have a crystal ball as to when the markets are going to turn now Bitcoin is rising and it's interesting because with everything that I'm describing you would assume Bitcoin would be going down right because Bitcoin was sold to people as hey this is a safe haven asset because the US dollar is in trouble we have big deficits we're going to have a lot of inflation they're going to print a lot of money and buy Bitcoin because it's a better store of value than gold it's digital gold well actual gold is tanking so why isn't digital gold tanking because Bitcoin isn't digital gold it's really anti-gold Bitcoin is a risk on asset but the reason it's rising now is because everybody expects the Trump Administration to basically do all these great things to get people to buy Bitcoin such as eliminate all the capital gains taxes on bitcoin hey you can make a lot of money on bitcoin it's all taxfree and they're thinking that they're going to start a US Bitcoin reserve and they're going to go into the market and print even more money created even more inflation to actually buy Bitcoin like the last thing we need is the US government to go into deeper debt to buy nothing to buy worthless tokens but that's great for the people who own those worthless tokens because they can sell them to the US government who doesn't give a damn how much money they lose buying these things cuz it's not their money and what they'd be doing is they're rewarding people who voted for them you know Trump when he was president the first time said Bitcoin was a scam he said it was a fraud said it wasn't currency it was a threat to the dollar to the US Financial system he couldn't have said more negative things about Bitcoin why did he change his mind did he really have this Epiphany no he changed his mind for the same reason a lot of other people have done a 180 it was the money the money that Cor corrupted him so he wanted to run for president and these Bitcoin guys are like hey you promote Bitcoin and we will write you huge checks we will be your biggest donors if you just come out and support Bitcoin and what Trump needed young voters because the Republicans don't do as well in the young demographic because usually you need more life experience to be a republican right there's an old saying you know if you're not a Democrat by the time you're 21 you don't have a heart if you're not a republican by the time you're 28 you don't have a head right so younger people they're naive they're idealistic they believe all this BS by the Democrats but there's a lot of young people who own Bitcoin and Donald Trump promised to make them Rich vote for me and I will buy your Bitcoin and you'll be a millionaire and I've said that before I mean the price can go up as long as people are dumb enough to buy it now obviously the people who bought it if they sell it and get out they look pretty smart but the thing is most people don't sell their Bitcoin that's the whole idea buy it and never sell it that's why it keeps going up but eventually they're going to want to sell it they're going to want to buy it new car they're going to want to buy a house or want to take a vacation I mean you eventually got to sell but the other thing that's driving up the price of Bitcoin is you got that mad man Michael sailor who says I'm going to buy $42 billion worth of bitcoin so people want to front run that people want to buy Bitcoin to sell it to micro strategy if the dollar keeps Rising that is negative for emerging markets it's because I don't believe the dollar is going to keep Rising I also think the tariffs people are afraid that the tariffs are going to hurt Emerging Markets the tariffs are going to hurt us tariffs hurt the most the nation that imposes them that's always the case now some foreign companies will be hurt by our tariffs because they'll have to sell their products to somebody else for less money than they would have got selling them to us but those foreign consumers are going to catch a break a lot of people outside the United States are going to get the benefit of our tariffs because they're going to buy Goods at lower prices that otherwise would have been sold to Americans but we're not buying them because the tariffs made them too expensive but also I think that if the tariffs are really high right A lot of these Emerging Market countries are going to just develop better trade relationships with themselves as they buy and sell Goods to each other instead of the United States that means there's less demand for dollars and ultimately the tariffs backfire and the dollar weakens and the weaker dollar is good for the emerging markets and again to the extent that foreigners don't sell us as much stuff because of the tariffs they're not going to buy as many treasuries because that's how we pay for our Imports with our we have a trillion dollar plus trade deficit and if foreigners aren't selling us stuff they're not earning dollars and if they're not earning dollars they don't need treasuries or US dollar denominated debt and so I think the rest of the world is going to be a lot better off if they buy less of our debt and Loan us less money and instead they keep their product so a lot of the products that are now being produced in factories and Emerging Markets are going to stay in those emerging markets and the people that live there are going to get to buy those products what Americans are going to have is our money so we're going to print more money and we're going to have that but we're not going to have all these products that we used to have because they're going to be you know outside the United States so my story on the Emerging Markets is still intact I still think they're going to do really well it's just that again you have another delusion in the market speculators are piling into Dollars betting on a reality that's not going to exist and so while that's happening that does work to undermine those investments in the short run and so I just think it creates a good buying opportunity for people I mean right now you got a great opportunity to sell the Trump trade and fade it and buy the stuff that's going down and sell the stuff that's going up often times but on a smaller time frame markets will do one thing as a knee-jerk reaction and then they'll do the other as the real reaction and so this could be a knee-jerk reaction that spans many days or many weeks or maybe even many months but I think when we look back at it we're going to find that the people that bought into this made a mistake people crowded into the wrong trade because what everybody is assuming is going to happen is not going to happen and therefore the positive things about the assets that people are buying are not going to happen and a lot of the negative things about the assets that they're selling are not going to happen it's clear that the reason that Trump would want to fire pal is because he's not cutting rates fast enough because he's not doing quantitative easing so that should be bearish for the dollar that should be bullish for gold if Trump really wants to get rid of pal and replace him with somebody who will just be his Yes Man cuz you know when he ran for office initially he criticized Janet Yellen for being political for being keeping rates artificially low to help Obama but then he criticized poell for not doing the same thing for him and now he wants the FED chairman to do the same thing for him you know it's funny there are people now saying hey yeah the government should take over the FED oh you know the FED is unconstitutional which it may be but for not for the reasons they think but they think the US government should you know be in charge of printing money and interest rates that would even be more unconstitutional what we have now but people don't understand the US government has no constitutional authority to print money the framers called that emitting bills of credit they don't have the power to do that they can only coin money and what coining money means is taking gold and silver and making a coin out of it admitting bills of credit they can't do now the states are also prohibited from admitting bills of credit and they're prohibited from coining money the only thing the federal government can do in the constitution is coin money if it doesn't give them the power to emit bills of credit they can't do it and in fact the first couple of versions of the Constitution it was in there they took it out they didn't want the federal government printing money and the federal government also doesn't have the power to make anything legal tender only the states can declare legal tender and they're limited to gold and silver that's it but the way they got around the Constitution is they set up the FED as an independent banking Syndicate and so the Fed was issuing bills of credit not the government because the FED is not part of the government it's totally separate and the initial Federal Reserve notes they were redeemable in real money which was gold and silver coins that were coined by the government but they were notes promising to pay dollars that were made out of gold and silver and so that's how they justify the constitutionality but if they try to have the government do what the FED does it's totally unconstitutional because there's nothing in the Constitution that authorizes the government to do what the FED does