저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Fundstrat의 Tom Lee는 실적 성장과 시장 회의론 속에서도 S&P500이 여러 충격을 견뎌내며 상승해 왔다고 보고 주식시장에 긍정적이다. 3분기 S&P 실적은 12% 성장이 예상되며 인플레 재가속 신호는 뚜렷하지 않다고 주장한다. 비트코인은 금을 대체하는 자산으로 장기적으로 100만 달러까지 갈 수 있고, 연말 20만~25만 달러를 전망한다. 기업 비트코인 트레저리는 승자와 패자가 갈릴 것이며 마이크로스트래티지 모델이 대표 사례라고 설명한다. 연준 금리 인하 방향에는 의견을 밝히지 않았다.
다듬은 글
Hey everyone, welcome back to the show. Joining me this week is the one and only Tom Lee. He is the co-founder and head of research for Fundstrat as well as the chairman for Bitbine, one of the most bullish people I know and have had on my show. Tom, thanks for joining me. Great to see you. So, how are you feeling about these markets?
Because it seems like uh well, stock market at an all-time high. Um data points coming out that all seem very very positive, but I just had an analyst on saying that we're in a silent recession. So, what's your take on all this? Uh well, we're we're constructive and I think it is a good sign that many people are skeptical because I I you know, we we believe this is one of the most hated V-shaped rallies and uh we are making new highs and instead of people justifying new highs, we have many people saying markets should not be here because the Fed is not cutting rates or there's tariff uncertainty.
So that skepticism is healthy for markets. Why is it healthy for markets? Well, you know, it's a sign that there's still price discovery underway because if people were all bullish in in the public realm, when everyone's bullish, then it's probably in the price. But when there's plenty of skepticisms and reasons to be skeptical, that allows markets to have positive surprise.
And um and I think that's true of crypto. you know, Bitcoin, you know, is making all-time highs. It's kind of silent, right? Well, when a lot of other people have been bearish and almost anticipating a crash, you've been sort of one of the people out there in the public eye saying, "No, we're going higher.
We're going higher in the S&P. We're going higher in Bitcoin. You're predicting, I think, even higher prices by the end of the year." So, why do you feel that way? Well, uh, for equities, it's it's really straightforward. Um, number one, the economy has proven to be incredibly resilient. I mean, I don't I don't think people should take a half empty take.
We've thrown massive tariffs. We had essentially a a Cuban missile crisis moment. And yet, S&P earnings are going to grow 12% this quarter. And there's not any signs really of sustained or a reigniting of inflation. There might be some inflation temporary but that's very different than inflation dynamic taking root.
And the second is people says that that deficits and this current budget are so bad that no one's going to buy our debt but yields are behaving. You know 10ear yield was 5% 2 years ago it's 4 and a.5% now. And in terms of multiples I think people are getting this wrong. There's a lot of people saying the market's expensive because the PE of the market should be the average of 16 or 17.
Now, I've been an equity analyst for 34 years and I used to cover stocks. I was a tech analyst for 17 of those years. I never once found an analyst who made money saying you should trade at an average PE. Like literally there's you either have arguments for PE expanding and then you just have to determine when you've hit bubble or pees contract when the story is getting worse and there's no bottom.
And we just threw six extinction events at this S&P 500 in the last 5 years. COVID then a bull whip supply chain effect that normally should bankrupt businesses. We had the fastest surge in inflation in two generations. the fastest Fed hikes in history. We had tariff Armageddon. I mean, literally a Cuban missile crisis moment for the stock market this year.
And then the US bombed Iran's nuclear facilities. Each of those should have caused a crash in the stock market. And yet the S&P recovered every time. If you if we were talking about this as a single stock, we'd say, "Look, if you threw six things at a at a company and it survived, it should have PE expansion." And yet, most people think the market's expensive.
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Isn't I mean, what are we going to do to solve the debt when all of this is essentially just pumping up stocks? when I graduated college and uh I moved to New York City and then at Union Square there was this billboard that had the national debt and it like went up every day and I worked at Kder Peabody and we had people saying does anyone realize how big the national debt is?
How much it is for every man, woman and child? That was 35 years ago. So 35 years later I hear the same exact conversation. So I think it is a problem. I obviously don't want the US government debt to grow, but is it a crisis? It seems like fun capital markets are functioning. So yes, it's a crisis, but I don't know when it's a crisis.
That's a good point. Um, so do you think that the Fed should lower interest rates? And if they do so, let's say in September, what will the market reaction be? Um well part of Funstrat's sort of framework is that we don't say what policy makers should do. Okay. But I can offer a separate opinion. Um and the reason is that we just have to respond to what the mark to those market conditions and that's why um for instance I think people got really tripped up this year because there is trumped arrangement syndrome and so they viewed policy actions like tariffs as policy errors whereas at Fundstrat we just simply wanted to see how we should treat the market and trade that market and with the Fed I don't have an opinion of Fed should be cutting or not because Powell is Fed chair and whatever he decides is correct.
But if I was a computer and using AI to make policy decisions, then I would say that the real interest rate is super restrictive right now because core CPI is 27 or core PCE will get it tomorrow and Fed funds is 4 and a half. That's 200 basis points real. The housing industry is getting strangulated.
And the only reason both core PCE and core CPI are elevated is because of that what they call a statistical residual way that rent is calculated, shelter is calculated. Housing is deflating, but it's still treated as inflating in CPI. So the Fed is literally making a policy decision based on something that's 18 months stale.
So, if they were to lower interest rates, um I mean based on past experience, I feel like if they hike interest rates, that's riskoff, but also when they lower interest rates sometimes all of a sudden the market gets spooked and and people sell off and go into safety. What do you anticipate? I mean, I don't think that they would even cut more than 25 basis points.
But if they cut more, wouldn't that signal something to the market? Uh, you know, I think everyone has a different interpretation. Like again, that's why like I don't have an opinion what the Fed should do. Yeah. But if the Fed were to resume cutting, there's a bearish and a bullish take you can make cuz like the bearish take is, oh man, the economyy's in trouble, but the bullish take is,
well, the Fed's finally getting that inflation has to get cut. And how the market ends up interpreting it. We'll find out. I don't know. So, what's your take on Bitcoin as we head into say the the fourth quarter eventually in the fall? Do you think we're going higher? Well, I think that to me the the most the simplest way to think about Bitcoin is that it's gaining traction as replacement for gold.
I think that I think that if someone wanted to understand the use case for Bitcoin and there's many but they but they're not too they don't have a lot of conviction around something to me I can say easily it should supplant gold and so I think Bitcoin should be you know over a million over time and and then I kind of prescribing to the view that there's probably a chance that maybe the four-year cycle is ending for Bitcoin because of the way institutional adoption of that thesis is taking place and so you have institutional and perman essentially permanent holders of Bitcoin coming in so uh should be good I mean so I think Bitcoin should really build upon this 120 before the end of the year so you know 200,000 maybe 250
you think by the end of the year I would love to get your take on the corporate Bitcoin treasuries because we're seeing so many more emerge um you know some people are a little nervous and they don't think that all of them can survive or that it might create some sort of a bubble similar the.com era and others are extremely bullish on literally all of them.
So where are you at? Well, you can't create a bubble because you're you're buying Bitcoin. So unless you think Bitcoin's a bubble, it's not a bubble, right? Um I think the crypto treasuries are going there's going to be winners and losers. Uh because there is a scarcity to it actually. Um, so Bitcoin is scarce and so it's proper for companies to have Bitcoin on their balance sheet over time and I think banks will because banks as Bitcoin really does get recognized in its proper place as how you move money in the financial system then the banking sector will actually stake Bitcoin as well.
They're going to want to own it. I mean and uh so these treasuries are doing what other businesses will eventually do but for them to get a premium to their Bitcoin because of how they're executing a strategy that is the scarce part. Micro Micro Strategy has already proven that their strategy works cuz they started in August 12th 2020.
Mhm. They bought 260 million Bitcoin stock was $13. Now they own close to 5% of the Bitcoin network. Yeah. And they announced a huge buy last week, but the stock is 400. It's gone up 30 times. So that's truly executed in a masterful way. I don't know if the 50 other Bitcoin treasury companies or I I don't know how many are I actually looked at that website.
Uhhuh. Bitcoin treasuries.net. Yeah. And there's like 50 companies. Not all of them are doing treasury strategies. Um, but I think a handful will emerge as winners, but not everyone. Are you bullish on some over others? Like, can you name any? Well, I would say again, I don't uh I don't necessarily want to necessarily recommend one or the other except for one that's in our granny shots, but um I would say that's there's been differentiation like there's a geographic differentiation.
So in Japan there aren't ETFs. So MetaPlanet's been amazing, you know, and in the UK there's a a handful of names and then there's one just emerged in Korea. So is a geographically diverse thing. They have an opportunity to uh distinguish themselves. But because of like what I've seen in treasuries there there is a certain like alchemy that like micro strategy has which is they micro strategy has made micro strategy shareholders into customers.
I mean he has turned he has orange pill every shareholder of Micro Strategy and and he has maintained a premium and he has transformed capital markets that is what needs to be done for these other treasuries to be successful and not everyone probably has that combination and which one's in your granny shot I think I know
yeah similar scientific is and full disclosure I'm on the board um why why did you choose that one in particular Well, I like what Eric's doing. So, he's taking a a slightly different approach. Uh, and and and you need to give it time to work, which is he wants to say, I want Bitcoin as a treasury strategy, and I'm going to use capital markets to to stack my Bitcoin, my sats, but he also wants to have a a profitable operation that can fund the cash flow into building more Bitcoin.
Now at at the moment it some shareholders are like that's not the micro strategy. I want pure Bitcoin treasury. Uh but but that's not Eric's approach. I think Eric I like Eric's approach. So you know you just want to give it time and he's brought some folks on board including you to really help amplify his message.
So you know for us as a granny smid granny it's in our re in our smidcap research portfolio. Uh, look, we don't think you can go wrong because Bitcoin is 120,000. You're buying $120,000 Bitcoin in Semler and he's acquiring more Bitcoin all the time. And if Bitcoin goes to a million, then Semar Scientific is going to go up proportionately.
So, we crossed 5,000 Bitcoin on our way to 10,000. So, we appreciate the bullish sentiment. Um, do you have a take on the preferreds that strategy has issued? Well, that's very novel. Uh and and it and it of course it has a framework. You know, Mike Michael Sailor's view is that Bitcoin is going to compound at a rate that justifies uh any level any relative level of liability that normally would be tough to stomach and um and so that's why he's created these structures, but they've been enormously successful products.
And of course, he could change and refinance them at any time. So I I think the main thing is is Michael Sailor Michael Sailor is changing the reality of the stock market. And um the reason is is that he probably will end up being the largest potentially the largest company in the stock market. Okay?
Especially if Bitcoin goes to a million. yet he doesn't generate gap net income to justify it. He's based solely on the value of his balance sheet. And uh but that that's not new to history cuz when I graduated college, the biggest stock in the S&P a top five name was Exxon Mobile and it was top five for 28 years, 30 years.
It's like an entire generation graduated, worked on Wall Street, a top five name was a company that was only valued on the value of its oil, not on its net income. So like Micro Strategy is like replacing Exxon in lore cuz you know for a whole generation people said Exxon is the biggest company but you don't value it on earnings.
Well, Micro Strategy could be one of the biggest companies in the world and it's valued on it's Bitcoin. Wow.
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