저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 피터 쉬프는 달러 약세와 워싱턴 혼란을 근거로 금 가격이 앞으로 크게 오를 것이라고 주장한다. 정치 상황: 스파이서 백악관 대변인 사임 등 트럼프 행정부 혼란이 금 지지 요인이며, 트럼프는 전임 오바마 경제를 물려받은 상태에서 주식시장을 자신의 성과로 내세워 침몰하는 배를 맡은 셈이라고 평가했다. 달러: 연초 이후 10% 이상 하락해 연간 신저점 마감, 차트가 매우 나쁘며 과거 강세 쏠림이 정점이었다고 보고 달러가 훨씬 더 떨어질 것이라고 전망했다. 이는 금 상승을 의미한다. 금 가격: 현재 1250달러대는 박스권 저항을 돌파하지 못한 상태이며, 1300~1350달러 이상으로 명확히 돌파해야 매수세가 붙을 것이라고 했다. 연말로 갈수록 금이 강하게 마감할 것으로 기대했다. 은: 최근 15달러 부근까지 급락한 후 반등했으며 지금도 훌륭한 매수 기회라고 주장했다. 주식 대비 성과: 금 관련 주식은 작년 최고 성과였으나 올해 최악이며, 본인이 운용하는 펀드 중 금 펀드가 가장 부진하다고 인정했다. 연말에는 금이 신흥국 펀드를 추월할 것으로 봤다. 트럼프 랠리: 작년 트럼프 당선 후 달러 랠리는 헤드페이크였고 허니문은 이미 끝났으며, 정책 실망이 나타날 것이라고 봤다. 연준이 QE와 금리 인하로 돌아가면 달러는 끝난다고 전망했다. 잼 로저스 비교: 로저스는 최악의 금융위기가 올 것이라 보며 단기적으로는 달러가 오를 것이라 보지만, 쉬프는 달러 랠리는 끝났다고 반박했다. 리스크/조건: 금 가격 상승의 촉매가 무엇일지는 명확하지 않다고 인정했다. 유로와 엔에 대해서는 선호하지 않지만 달러보다는 덜 나쁘다고 봤다. 금본위 관점: 금은 통화가 아닌 진짜 돈이며, 인터넷 시대에 금본위제가 과거보다 더 잘 작동한다고 장기적으로 주장했다.
다듬은 글
Washington turmoil is keeping a bid under gold. The metal is at session highs as news broke that Sean Spicer resigned as White House press secretary. August gold is ending the week up 2% at $1,253 an ounce. Joining us from Las Vegas, where he's speaking at the FreedomFest conference, is Peter Schiff, CEO of Europacific Capital.
Peter, good to see you. I wish I were there with you. It's a great conference. I don't know if you've ever come to Las Vegas in the summer. There's normally no reason to be in Las Vegas in July, but FreedomFest is worth the trip. We'll talk about it in a bit. I've covered it for many years. Unfortunately I can't be there this year, but let's talk about the turmoil in the Trump administration. What are your thoughts on the Spicer exit?
Well, I guess Saturday Night Live is going to have to come up with some other skits. I wonder if they'll get someone to play Anthony Scaramucci. But Trump is going to have a lot of problems. He inherited a disaster of an economy from Obama. The problem is he pretended the economy was great, and now he's claiming ownership of it. He's put his brand on the stock market. So I think he's basically taking over a sinking ship. He should have been more forthright after the election. As candidate Trump, he was very critical of the phony economic numbers. He was calling the stock market a bubble, and he should have continued that. Now he's taking the bait.
It's not just gold going up. The dollar is down. In fact, the dollar has lost more than 10% of its value since early January, and it's closing the week at a new low for the year. The chart on the dollar looks horrible. I think it's going a lot lower. There was a huge, very crowded trade: everybody was long the dollar coming into the year, and they were so enthusiastic about it that there were even cover stories about the mighty dollar. That was the top. We're going a lot lower, and that generally means gold is going a lot higher. In fact, I'm surprised gold isn't already higher. I think it's been lagging, and it has a lot of lost ground to make up. I'm wondering what the catalyst will be, but I do think it's going a lot higher.
Well, we're ending the week up 2%, and many are saying we put in the bottom last week. What are you doing with it at these levels, and where are we going? Higher. We had a big washout in silver a week or two ago. The silver price went down about $15, and it's almost back up to $17, not quite, but I think we had a big sell order. We had a big special on silver. I got really excited when it got down near $15, and I still think silver is a great buy here. But what is going to propel it higher? Hard to say. There are many different catalysts that could do it. But I think we have to get gold out of this trading range. It has to get well above $1,300, or above $1,350. Right now, at around $1,250, people look at it and think it hasn't gone anywhere, it's just where it's been. So it really has to break decisively out of this overhead resistance, and then I think a lot of people will start buying.
If we compare to equities in the short term, equities are still outshining the yellow metal. A study from the Telegraph showed that since last year's Brexit vote, a portfolio with only 5% exposure to gold is up 32%, beating a 50% exposure, which is up 17%. Last year gold did really well. Gold stocks were my best performers last year. This year they're my worst performers. Even though they're up, they aren't up as much as my non-gold stocks. I manage four or five mutual funds, and the worst performer of the year is the gold fund. Even my bond fund is beating my gold fund. But I don't think that will last. Year to date, my emerging market fund is the star performer, but I do think gold will overtake it by the end of the year and have a strong finish. Last year gold had a weak finish because everybody got excited about Trump, and the dollar rallied on Trump. I said at the time that I thought it was a head fake and the Trump honeymoon wouldn't last. It's obviously already over, and I think you'll start to see a lot of disappointment, with many people who were enthusiastic about making America great again beginning to capitulate on those hopes. I'm not blaming this on Trump. He inherited a disaster. He's not making it better, but to make it better, a lot of things have to get a lot worse first. No politician wants to acknowledge that. That's why we can't get rid of Obamacare: no one wants to tell the truth, no one wants to tell the American public there's no free lunch. All the Republicans want to do is put their brand on the free lunch, but they don't want to take it away.
Peter, I interviewed Jim Rogers earlier this week, who's also a panelist with you at FreedomFest. When I asked him what his message to attendees was, he said, "Be careful, because we will see the worst financial crisis in his lifetime." Is your message as gloomy? Yes. We have the same opinion, the same conclusion. The only disagreement Jim and I had this morning is that even though Jim thinks the dollar will ultimately collapse, he still thinks it will rise first. He thinks the next crisis, which will be worse than the financial crisis, will once again cause people to buy the dollar. That's about the only thing I disagree with. I think the dollar rally is over. The dollar rallied in anticipation of rate normalization and a shrinking balance sheet. When the Fed has to go back to QE and cut rates, that's it for the dollar. I think the dollar has had its last hurrah. I hope Jim is smart enough to get rid of his dollars before they completely collapse, because he said he's holding a lot of dollars, and only because he thinks the euro and yen could be even worse in the short run. I don't look at the dollar only against the euro. The dollar is very weak this year against the euro, and it has been weak against the yen. The yen had a bit of a pullback recently, but that has reversed. I don't like the euro or the yen that much myself. I just don't think they're as bad as the dollar. But when I invest, the world isn't just those three currencies. There are many currencies you can own, so you can be out of all three, and there are many you can own that aren't nearly as bad. That's why I like gold, because it isn't a currency. Gold is real money. Currencies are just substitutes for money. Gold is the real deal. Even if people aren't using it as money today, they eventually will. The world has been on the gold standard for a long time. Every once in a while we go off it, there's a disaster, and we get back on, and that's coming. With the internet age, it's easier now to be on a gold standard than ever before. I think gold works better as money today than it ever has in human history, and it has worked very well in the past, and it's going to work even better in the future.
Peter Schiff, thanks so much for joining us from Las Vegas and the FreedomFest conference.
Thank you. Sure. And thanks for watching this edition of Kitco's Gold Report. We'll be back next week.
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