저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
달러 위기와 미국 과소비 구조 붕괴를 경고하며, 이는 미국 자산가격 하락과 글로벌 해방으로 이어진다고 주장. 금은 달러 가치 하락과 기축통화 재편으로 계속 상승할 것이며 4,000달러 가능성을 언급. 금광주는 금 대비·S&P500 대비 극단적으로 저평가되어 금보다 훨씬 큰 상승(최대 5배) 가능하다고 봄. 실물금은 당분간 매수 보류, 금광주는 매수 관점.
다듬은 글
Gold is heading for its best weekly gain since 2020 up nearly 7% this week alone and the US dollar is on pace for its worst week since 2022. Now China's decision to raise tariffs on US goods to 125% on Friday sparked a new wave of selling. Now Peter, you've been doing this a long time. Describe this week for us in historical terms.
Well, I mean this is something that I've been predicting for quite some time now. It was inevitable. I always thought it would be a external dollar crisis that would set these events in motion. I didn't realize that we would do it to ourselves. Uh but but we have. Uh we've pricked our own bubble and there's a lot of air that's going to come out of it.
You know, Donald Trump looked at our huge trade deficits and just concluded that the trade deficits themselves were the problem and that they must be the result of foreigners cheating us and ripping us off. Uh well the the reality is the trade deficits are the symptom of the problem. The problem is here in America and we're not getting ripped off by anybody.
Nobody's cheating. Uh the the problem is we as Americans for decades now have lived beyond our means. We consume more than we produce. Now how is that possible? Well, we go into debt. We sell off our assets. We outsource our manufacturing and we borrow money and you know, we get to live a standard of living that's higher than what we're really entitled to based on our collective productivity.
Now it's the rest of the world that makes that possible. They produce what we don't. They buy our assets and they loan us the money. And so what does that mean in America? Well, we have more stuff to buy at lower prices. We get lower interest rates because of all this foreign capital and our stock prices are higher.
So we get to be rich on paper cuz we have a high stock market and we get low interest rates and low consumer prices. Now according to Donald Trump that's the world screwing us over, ripping us off and he wants that to stop. Well, if that stops, well now you know, the ride on the global gravy train is over.
We can't live beyond our means anymore. So we have to live within our means which means we have to consume a lot less. We have to save a lot more. It means that uh our our interest rates go way up because we're no longer borrowing all this money from foreigners. Uh our consumer prices go way up because we're no longer getting all their stuff.
Our stock prices go down because they're not buying our stocks. So Americans are going to see a huge decline in our standard of living and a big drop in their net worth. But I mean that's liberation, right? That's we know I I I was warning that Trump was threatened to threatening to liberate us from our standard of living and liberating us from our stock market wealth.
And and you know, that's what's happened and and it's just started. This is going to play out uh for the rest of the year, next year. Uh this is a huge trend that's just going to get more and more momentum. I mean this price action's been wild to watch. We're seeing this massive move rising nearly $600 this year alone.
Uh we know some of the basic major drivers. Obviously we covered extensively here you know, central banks, what have you, but what's behind this surge here? I mean what do you think is going to be the next year here in the gold market? Well, gold's up over $250 in the last 3 days. Yeah. Right? [clears throat] So uh we're accelerating.
You know, last 2 days last couple days we were $100 a day and maybe we'll be up again. Maybe we'll be up another 100 by the time, you know, they they they close today's trading. But what's happening and what I've been telling people was happening all all last year as the price of gold went from 2,000 to 3,000 and nobody cared and nobody was buying it because everybody was, you know, sidetracked by Bitcoin and all the talk about digital gold.
Uh nobody but foreign central banks were buying actual gold. And the reason they're buying gold is because they're getting rid of their dollars. They are preparing for uh a world where the dollar is no longer the center of the monetary system, where it's no longer the reserve currency. And so if you're going to uh get rid of dollars, what do you replace it with?
Well, gold is the most likely alternative to the dollar and that's what they've been doing. Although I think recently central banks are probably also adding euros. I've been telling people to buy gold uh you know, for over 20 years. When I first started recommending physical gold to my clients, it was under $300 an ounce.
It's gone up more than 10-fold. In fact, gold has outperformed the stock market for the last 25 years dramatically. I think the S&P is down maybe 65% priced in gold. So the whole bull market is an an illusion created by inflation. Uh gold lets you see uh economic reality. But really for the first time in my career, I'm actually telling people that for for now don't buy physical gold.
Just wait. Because even though the gold stocks are at new 52-week highs and they're up maybe I don't know, 15, 20% this on their they're jumping finally. But gold stocks are much lower, you know, than than they were a few years ago or 10 years ago or even 20 years ago a lot of them. Gold stocks are dirt cheap and the reason for that is central banks aren't buying gold stocks.
They're just buying the physical gold. But they buy the physical gold that the gold mining companies produce and their profits are about to skyrocket because oil has never been this cheap in history relative to gold. That is the biggest cost for these mining companies. They're trading at single-digit multiples.
Gold mining stocks have never been this cheap not only relative to gold but relative to the S&P 500. They're giving these stocks away. When you buy gold mining companies, you're buying gold that's still in the ground. And gold in the ground has never been cheaper in all of history than gold above ground.
And so what I'm telling people now is look, I think gold's going higher. Gold could hit 4,000 uh this year. But that's not that big a gain from 3250. But if I think if gold does hit 4,000, gold stocks are going to catch up. That means they can go up 5x. So rather than making, you know, 25% make 500%, you know, by buying the gold that's still in the ground.
Analysts, investors, again we're getting into that question whether or not Beijing might start offloading in response to these tariffs. You were just talking about Europe, too. If this happens, I mean what impact could it have on the US and global financial systems? But more importantly, can the Fed step in fast enough if the confidence of of the US sovereign debt collapses or is the policy window already closed?
Well, I think that there is going to be a massive loss of confidence cuz it's been a confidence game the entire time. But look, this is going to be a financial crisis much worse than 2008, but it's not going to be global. It is a US crisis. It's not a global crisis. It's actually liberation for the rest of the world because they're going to be liberated from the burden of supporting the US economy.
That means more for them. You know, we've been living above our means. Well, that's only possible because the rest of the world has lived beneath our means. Well, they don't have to do that anymore. They don't have to produce stuff for Americans anymore. They don't have to loan their savings to America.
They don't have to invest in the US financial markets. They can invest in their own markets. They can consume their own goods, right? They can they they can invest their own savings. So our loss is their gain. And so this is going to be a global boom. Uh it's like a giant weight has been uh removed from them.
And and now the global economy can be a lot stronger without having to drag the US consumer behind. So if this happens then and we're talking about obviously, you know, these these huge moments within the global economy. Would you characterize the current move into gold as a long-term shift rather than just a temporary flight to safety?
How long is this going to last? No, it is a long-term shift and it's it's been going on for a long time. Yeah. You know, how do you think we got up to 3,200 and change? So no, but gold is going much much higher. Uh you know, I used to think you know, back in 2009, 10, 11, you know, back when they started QE, I was thinking gold would go to like 5,000, you know, when the gold was like 1,000.
And it it didn't get there. Uh but now that it's 2025 and we've created so much more money and so much more debt than we had back then I mean 2,000 5,000 is nothing at this point. That's just a pit stop on the road to much much higher prices. Uh because we have to, you know, catch up to all the inflation that we've created.
So you know, now you're looking gold could be, you know, 20,000 or more. I don't know. But a lot of it isn't gold going up. It's the dollar going down. You know, when the United States, you know, was first started in 1789 um you know, you only needed $20 to buy an ounce of gold. And about 130 years later when we established the Federal Reserve in 1913 you still only needed $20 to buy an ounce of gold.
So the dollar and gold were very stable uh up until the creation of the the of the Federal Reserve. Now that didn't change until 1933 with Roosevelt and the Great Depression and he devalued and now you needed $35 to buy an ounce of gold. But that was the same until 1971. $35. And then we went off the gold standard completely and now gold goes from $35 to over 3,000.
So gold has gone up more than 100x. But gold hasn't changed. It's the US dollar that has lost more than 99% of its purchasing power. And Peter, if if you see the dollar no no longer acting as a reserve currency here, what will it be? Gold. We don't need a reserve currency. We just need a reserve. Money needs to back up currency.
So, all these foreign countries are going to use gold. Cuz that's what they used before the dollar. Remember in Bretton Woods, we got the world to to use the dollar as the reserve instead of gold. They were using gold. But the reason we got them to use the dollar is that we said, "Hey, the dollar's as good as gold.
It's backed by gold. You can have your gold whenever you want. So, just back your currency with dollars and in the meantime you can buy our treasury bonds and you'll get interest. Because you don't get any interest on gold. So, it seemed like a good deal. Have your cake and eat it, too. Own gold, but get interest.
But then of course we screwed them cuz we defaulted, right? Hey, not going to give you any gold, you know? You You screwed up. You trusted us. Um but so the world's just going to go back to a gold standard. That's what's happening. You know, and you know, they may have other currencies in reserve, but the primary reserve asset has got to be gold.
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