저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 모비우스는 인도를 최선호 투자국으로 꼽고 신흥국 전반에 낙관적이며, 이 펀드는 올해 달러 기준 70% 상승했다고 밝혔다. [성과] 모비우스 신흥시장 펀드는 2021년 연초 이후 달러 기준 약 70% 상승. [상위 투자국] 인도(1위), 대만, 한국, 중국 순. 터키, 중남미(브라질), 남아공, 케냐, 이집트에도 투자 중. [터키] 리라화 약세에도 수출 기업은 비용은 리라, 수익은 달러라 혜택. 투자 판단은 어느 위치에서 투자하느냐에 따라 달라진다고 설명. [인도] 헬스케어(특히 코로나 진단·검사 관련)와 건설자재 고품질 기업, 인도 소프트웨어(기업용 수요)에 투자. 인구 10억, 젊은 인구로 코로나 저항력이 상대적으로 높다고 평가. 종목명은 공개 거부. [미국 증시] 작년 2~3월 급락 후 강세 지속, 코로나의 시장 영향은 제한적이라는 견해. [반도체] 대만·한국·중국의 반도체 설계 소프트웨어와 하드웨어에 투자. 반도체 부족은 인터넷 성장과 자동차 수요 때문. [중국] 의료(무릎 인공관절 제조사), 교육 기업 투자. 중국 정부의 디디·알리바바 규제는 데이터 유출 우려와 반독점 목적이라고 해석, 우려는 크지 않다고 함. 미국도 빅테크 규제가 필요하다고 주장. [지정학] 대만 해협 긴장은 우려되지만 당장의 단절은 보지 않으며 장기적으로 중국-대만 통합 전망. 투자는 계속한다는 입장. [디지털 위안] 중국이 디지털 결제에서 선도, 위안화 디지털화는 송금을 쉽고 저렴하게 하는 단계. 암호화폐와 디지털 화폐는 구분해야 한다고 주장. [DeFi·신흥국 금융] 신흥국의 은행 접근성 문제를 송금 서비스(케냐 M-Pesa, 사파리콤 보유)가 해결 중이라고 설명. 이 분야에 강세 의견. [남아공] 시위·약탈 상황에도 현지 약국 체인(클리킹스)에 투자, 운영 효율과 수익성이 좋다고 평가. [종합 순위] 인도 > 대만 > 중국 (상위 3개 신흥국 선택). [리스크] 지정학적 긴장, 중국 규제, 신흥국 정치 불안을 언급했으나 투자 제약으로 보지 않음.
다듬은 글
welcome back we are continuing our conversation with renowned investor dr mark mobius best-selling author of several books including the inflation myth and the wonderful world of deflation and dr mobius is currently the co-founder of mobius capital partners and is considered to be the founder of the emerging markets asset class all right mark i want to focus on emerging markets now now as you mentioned money printing hasn't been exclusive to the us it's happening around the globe including in emerging markets so where do you see opportunities in emerging markets at the moment what are your top three countries uh right now if you look at our portfolio in the mobius emerging markets fund you see india is at the top followed by taiwan korea china and we have some investments in turkey in latin america and brazil and in south africa in addition one investment in kenya so we're very global and a lot of people say wait a minute turkey isn't the turkish leader devaluing sure it is devaluing but the companies that we own in turkey turkey are benefiting from the devaluation because they're exporting their costs are in turkish lira which is getting weaker and their incomes are in u.s dollars so you see uh it depends on where you're sitting in other words what kind of investment you're making uh and that will determine uh whether you should be investing or not well and look there's obviously a lot of political instability and geopolitical factors with a number of the countries that you mentioned that i want to focus on but before we get into that how has your fund performed so far this year in this semi-post-covered world if you will so far this year we're up 70 percent in dollar terms which is very very exciting 7-0 7-0 so i'm uh i'm a big investor in the fund of course so i'm very happy i'm sure you would be we wouldn't be with a 70 percent uh up year-to-date performance okay so india you said was your biggest holding why india and and as we know india has been hit particularly hard by covert with various variants of of the virus so where do you see opportunity in india which sectors in particular well in india we've invested in the health care sector particularly in diagnostic area of course with covid the need for diagnosis for testing all of that kind of thing for medical testing is high so we've invested in that and then we've invested in a pipe company that does construction materials at a very high level a very high quality uh company can you give us the names of these particular companies i don't want to give you the names because i'm afraid that i'll be accused of pushing a particular stop all right never mind but if you look at uh if you go into the internet or into bloomberg you'll see the portfolio but i i don't want to recommend the stock that we're holding because we may be accused of uh we'll keep the compliance people happy then all right exactly so uh uh that area uh and uh we're also investing in indian software uh because there's a great need for enterprise software not only in india but around the world but in india they're doing particularly well so you know despite kobe a lot of people forget that india's got a billion people and not all of them are affected by coven uh many of them are getting vaccinated and it's a young population so they're naturally more resistant to covet so these are the factors that really have helped india i believe and it's a good lesson by the way look at the u.s market of course the initial scare last year in february march resulted in a huge downturn in the market but since that time the u.s market has gone from strength to strength so covet really has not had that big an impact on the markets okay on the contrary you could say that covert has in fact created opportunities in certain sectors in the way that people have had to adapt to it in the technology sector for example allowing for remote work and remote medical diagnostics for example are there any areas that you believe have benefited from the pandemic in one way or another that you are now invested in uh yeah for example in taiwan we've invested in the so-called fabulous uh companies that do uh the software for chips of the you know the microchips that are using computers and all kinds of other electronic equipment so semiconductors is a big area for us and one of the reasons why there's actually a shortage of semiconductors is because of the growth of the internet and for example we're talking to each other using computers that have hundreds of chips in them and automobiles today have a big demand for chips so that's an area where we've invested in the software of chip design and also some of the hardware the hardware in technology so there's a lot of opportunity in that area particularly in taiwan korea and also china and in china we've invested in medical care a company that makes the joints metal joints for knee replacements and that sort of thing we've invested in that area so medical and then the other area is education uh we've invested in an education company also in egypt by the way i forgot to mention egypt we have one very good uh company that has colleges and uh primary and secondary schools a lot of people don't realize that in these emerging markets there is a big demand for education that the governments are not able to really fulfill so the private sector then steps in and supplies these services well you mentioned again that india was your highest weighted emerging market and i would understand that a lot of that has to do with some of the positive reforms implemented by the modi administration would that be correct correct exactly and they're going from innovation to innovation the government has been moving step by step not easy as you know uh india is really the united states of india in the sense that these states are very different from each other very difficult to get them together to agree uh well you look at the us you you got problems in the u.s but india is multiplied many many times so mark similarly to how india has been benefiting from uh reform in the from the modi administration you could say that china potentially has the flip side of that when you look at recent china government interference with companies like didi with alibaba the ant division of alibaba in particular and possible future interference because that does seem to signal the trend that we're seeing from china does that concern you uh not really i tell you why you must remember with china there are two aspects number one uh the communist party does not want information about the chinese people being leaked out to the world just like the us is afraid of you know information about the us being leaked to china and other countries so you have a company like didi didi has an incredible amount of information about their chinese consumers which i believe probably the chinese government's afraid of being leaked so i think that's one of the reasons why they cracked down on the dd the other aspect is that these like the us by the way uh these large internet companies have gotten much much too powerful i mean if you look at the us for example you'll see alphabet uh the whatsapp all these different different uh apps are owned by really three big companies used companies uh and unfortunately the anti-trust people in america have not really gone after these people but in china uh they are now cracking down from an anti-trust point of view because they realize that these companies like alibaba are just too powerful and they suppress the growth of smaller companies so a lot of that is not just you know communist party uh cracking down on the big eyes but it's more uh anti-trust uh uh uh concerns that the chinese have so in a way you would advocate that the us actually take a page from the chinese government's book at least when it comes to breaking up and regulating these giant tech companies definitely i think you know you've got to crack down on these companies that are just too powerful at this stage where i mean who can compete against amazon i ask you i mean it's almost impossible and you see that in many many other areas i mean you see that how free speech is being suppressed by some of these apps in america so this has got to really be looked at very very carefully so it's interesting because you're seeing that on some levels the us government can actually learn from the chinese communist party at least when it comes to curbing the power of these tech giants that you say are wielding too much influence and power themselves yeah that's right and but you must remember uh the objective of the chinese leadership is to become better than the u.s and what they did starting from deng xiaoping they said look we realize that it doesn't make any difference whether the cat is black or white as long as it catches the mouse and they look at america they say you know what is what has made america great and powerful it's a free enterprise a capitalist system so the chinese they may not call it that but they actually have adopted a capitalist system where there's free enterprise and they realize that this has been very successful but they also have got to look at the us regulated regulatory environment and they realize that hey we don't want another uh the kind of scandals that you've seen in america some madoff you know made off made off with everybody's money because there was no no proper regulation the chinese want to avoid that so they're looking at america well maybe we should you know look at this and do something differently and i think it's very important to understand what where china is coming from well do you have any concerns big concerns as an investor in china from a geopolitical perspective especially considering that you mentioned your second biggest position after india is taiwan and we have growing political tensions between china and taiwan do you have um any issues with that or any issues with uh potential bigger trade restrictions on china from the us and the european countries because that seems to be back on the agenda from a big geopolitical perspective what bothers you about investing in china at the moment of course those points that you just made are very very uppermost in our minds but i've been living with that for the last 30 30 years in 1987 when i joined templeton uh i was running the taiwan roc fund so i knew a lot about this tension between china and taiwan and it's gone going and it's a concern there's no question but i don't see any immediate break i think the chinese are taking a long view uh they think from a long-term point of view uh eventually they will be reunited with taiwan and of course you must remember all these countries are changing the societies are changing with the internet information revolution is really creating a big big uh transformation of the way people think and uh so it's a concern there's no question about that but it's not going to stop us from invest in these well speaking of the revolutions china of course is trying to revolutionize its currency with the digital yuan the chinese the people's bank of china putting forward the first central bank digital currency where do you see that going well the chinese are way ahead in uh digitizing uh the currency and also digitizing payments uh and i remember my last trip to china was let's see now it's a year and a half ago and i was in shenzhen in the south of china and i was inviting my chinese friends out for dinner i was the oldest so i said i have to buy dinner you know there's a tradition and i went we went to the restaurant i pulled out my credit card they don't take credit cards i took out my cash they don't take cash then one of my colleagues took their their cell phone bam it was paid that's digitization of payments so china's way ahead of other countries in this regard and i believe the digitization of the renminbi is just one further step in that direction to make transfers easy and cheap so this is a big big transformation that's taking place uh globally not only in china but china's way ahead of other countries well the whole idea of digital currencies be them central bank digital currencies or cryptocurrencies and the notion of revolutionizing traditional finance with d5 decentralized finance i imagine that that is going to have a huge impact on emerging markets where many people have been unbankable if you will haven't had access to traditional banks walk us through that how you see defy impacting emerging markets well personally i think you've got a you've got to differentiate between cryptocurrency and digitized currencies digitized currencies are backed by a real currency that you can spend in any way cryptocurrencies are not in that category so i think you ought to separate these two things now what's happening globally is that there's a trend to make uh what do you need a bank for you need a bank to keep money safe to perhaps hopefully pay you some interest and to transfer money from one place to another now this transfer operation is now being digitized as you know if you go into any emerging market country you'll see signs of uh these transfer of companies like western union the western union all over the place uh recently i was in uh dubai and my friend who didn't have his identity card with them one to help me transfer money we went to a western union office i gave them my uh passport he gave him the money and they made a transfer to another person happened to be and i think it was the turkey but you're seeing this around the world but it's going to become much easier and less expensive in uh kenya for example they have a system called m-pesa which was started by the telephone company uh there the safari com which by the way is one of the stocks we own but they started a system whereby with the simple cell phone you can transfer money from one place to the other by going into a shop giving them the cash getting a code sending the code to where you want to transfer the money and on that side they'll go to a shop with the code and collect the money it's been an incredible successful system and of course that's going to spread around the world and is that a sector that you're exposed to through your fund the whole idea of decentralized finance backed by we'll call it fiat currency fiat digital currencies and its impact on emerging markets is that a sector you're particularly bullish on yes and that's the reason why we've invested in the safaricom because they have that system okay well you mentioned africa and before i have to let you go i do want to get your thoughts on south africa where i grew up because you mentioned that it was somewhere in your portfolio and clearly there's a lot of unrest at the moment in south africa with looting and riots and protesting do you have any thoughts on that oh by the way that's a very good example of where um and i i was just talking to my bank i have an account in south africa and my banker said you know we have riots here and so forth but life goes on but we invested in a uh in a in a pharmacy chain in south africa very well run you may know it clicks i know clicks very well shopped all the time i just mentioned one of our old things but anyway uh they're very well run they're very efficient they're very profitable and they survive in a difficult environment and this is a good example of where you can often find hidden gems in areas where you would not expect find them and i believe they'll continue to go from strength to strength as a result of the good service and the way they run the company in a in a very good way so south africa is right on our list all right so some hidden gems in south africa but india top of the list followed by taiwan followed by china as your top three emerging market picks yes and we can get all the details uh on your website and particularly which stocks make up the portfolio which as you say is up 70 year-to-date well mark thank you so much for joining us here on kitchen news we really appreciate it thank you very much it's a pleasure to talk with you mark mobius the author of his new book the inflation myth and the wonderful world of deflation it's a great read appreciate it thank you so much for joining us on kid cove bye-bye thanks bye-bye and thank you for watching we'll see you next time you
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