저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스는 지정학적 긴장(러시아·우크라이나, 중동)이 확산되며 전쟁 위험이 커지고 있다고 경고했다. 대만의 중국 귀속은 언젠가 이뤄질 것이지만 시점은 모르며, 중국은 기다릴 만큼 현명하다고 봤고 당장 군사행동은 보지 않는다고 했다. 중국 경제는 부동산 위기, 디플레이션 등 도전이 있으나 장기적으로 부상이 계속될 것이라고 보며, 실패는 정상적 과정이라고 했다. 중국 주식은 많이 떨어졌지만 현재 매수는 하지 않았고, 관광·여행·엔터 등 타격이 큰 섹터를 살펴보는 중이라고 밝혔다.
다듬은 글
One of the phrases you often say and that I often quote is that the main lesson of history is that people do not learn the lessons of history. So, Jim, as we once again expand our discussion to geopolitics, given where we are in the world right now: discussing Russia, Ukraine, escalating tensions in the Middle East, elections around the world, and China's faltering economy.
What is your vision of where we are in history now? Unfortunately, if we look back at previous periods of history, we have small wars now, and historically small wars somehow eventually escalate into big ones. This is not good. We would like to think that people would learn the lessons of history, but they never do.
So when I say that if you go back to before World War I, that's exactly what started happening with small wars, and the next thing we know, back in 1912, the German and British royal families were vacationing together, celebrating, etc., and a few years later, they were killing each other in the trenches.
So, these things can and do change. And I don't like the signs I see. I would like to think we are smart enough to avoid war, but, Michel, humanity has never been smart enough to avoid wars. Do you mean wars with weapons? Armed conflicts, kinetic warfare. Do you think we are on the verge of an even greater escalation of global conflict?
I see signs moving in that direction. And I have no idea what will happen. I would like to hope that all of us, humanity, will be smart enough to understand. Let's not do that again, because it never did anyone any good. But we'll see . I hope we do n't see that. I hope this doesn't happen. But considering that you are a great historian and have an understanding of many things, including China, and are very optimistic about China.
We'll learn your position on China's economy, but you're certainly very familiar with China. I want to know your thoughts on what we are hearing from President Xi. He said that reunification with Taiwan is inevitable. And analysts suggest that if he were to take this step on Taiwan, from his perspective, it would be the perfect time because of what is perceived as a weak and chaotic Biden administration, those conflicts in the world that we just discussed: Russia, Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East that are escalating not only with Israel and Hamas but also, as we mentioned, other proxy groups backed by Iran, many distractions around the world; and of course we have an election and the US is more divided.
than ever before. This election promises to be the most controversial ever . And analysts suggest that if China were to launch any military action against Taiwan, this would be a window of opportunity, potentially around October-November, at the height of election tensions and general distraction. What do you think about this?
Well, I can look at the globe and know that Taiwan will become part of China again. Once. Unfortunately, I don't know when exactly that " someday" will come. But if I were China—and I'm not China, they definitely wouldn't listen to me. I would just wait, because, Michelle, look at your globe. There is no doubt that Taiwan will never become part of China.
And he will become her. Will it be because of war? I hope not. China seems smart enough to just wait because they know it will be theirs again someday , and I hope they just wait. Um, the US continues to provoke. You know, Nancy Pelosi went to Taiwan. American politicians continue to travel to Taiwan.
It's like poking the Chinese in the eye. I wish they wouldn't do that. I would like to, because so far China seems patient, and I hope that continues. Uh, I don't know the people in Beijing, so I have no idea what they're going to do. OK. You don't have any understanding there, but you feel that China ...
Well, I have my own considerations, but who knows if they are correct. I don't have any insider information. I don't communicate with people in the Chinese government. But you don't see it happening this year, according to your personal considerations? My personal thoughts? No, I don't see that happening right now.
But then again , I don't speak Chinese. I don't read Chinese, so there are a lot of things I probably don't know. But I know your daughters speak Mandarin because that was a big part of the reason you moved to Singapore. Um, but let's talk about the Chinese economy then, since you've been an optimist about China for a long time.
We see the real estate market there taking a serious hit. Just this week, Hong Kong ordered the liquidation of China Evergrande. China faces many challenges. The real estate crisis, deflation, falling exports, high youth unemployment, declining birth rates, even official GDP is falling, and many claim that this data was initially manipulative.
What is your forecast for the Chinese economy? Well, my view, as I think you know, for 30 or 40 years has been that China is on the rise again. I mean, everyone knows about it now . Now I'm not alone. I was made fun of in the old days, I remember in the 80s I would go back and say, "China, China, China." And everyone was saying, "No, no, no.
Japan, Japan, Japan." You may remember, you're not old enough to remember those times, but China certainly grew rapidly. It is now the second or possibly the largest economy in the world, depending on who is measuring it, and that will continue. But Michelle, if you look at the United States, we've had terrible failures over the last 150 years as we rose to become the most successful country in the 20th century.
My God, we've had bankruptcies, bear markets, recessions, depressions, we've had all kinds of problems. That's how the world works. This is history. It's okay to have failures. So China has and will continue to have, and perhaps they will have, terrible failures. We certainly, the US, certainly had them.
This is just normal. So, are you still confident that China will become the number one economy, the dominant superpower? Well, I don't see anyone else rising the way China has risen and continues to rise. I mean, it won't be. Well, I mean, Indians like to talk nicely, but for now, it's mostly just talk.
Mr. Modi is very popular wherever he goes, but so far it is just talk. I mean, there are a lot of very, very smart Indians out there, you know. This is a wonderful place. If you can only visit one country in your life, I would advise you to go to India. This is an amazing country. But will it be? I mean, it will become a big country someday, but not anytime soon.
Not like China. So do you still believe that people should be present in China's stock markets, have potential investment opportunities in China? Well, yes. I have Chinese stocks. They fell. I am currently looking for investment opportunities in the Chinese stock market. I haven't bought anything lately, but since the market is falling and pessimism is prevalent, I'm looking, but I don't have anything yet.
Of course. Are there any specific sectors in the Chinese stock market that seem more interesting to you than others? Well, I'm trying to find what fell the most. I mean areas like tourism, travel, entertainment—those are things that have been hit hard by everything that's happening in China right now.
So I'm looking for exactly those assets that have sagged. But I haven't bought anything lately.
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