저자: JimRickards,PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 두 출연자 모두 현재 상황을 디플레이션 또는 인플레이션 중 어느 쪽 위험이 크냐를 두고 논쟁하며, 구체적 종목·가격 예측은 없음. [리스크 진단] Rickards: 연준의 돈 찍기는 실질 부양 효과가 없고, 가장 큰 위협은 디플레이션이라고 주장. Schiff: 달러 가치가 붕괴할 때까지 통화 발행이 계속되어 물가가 크게 오를 것이며, 이것이 세금처럼 작용한다고 주장. [Schiff의 시나리오] 달러 붕괴 시 생활물가 급등, 정부 복지 수표의 실질 가치 하락, 물가통제(1970년대식) 도입 가능성, 상품 부족·장기 줄서기·전력 배급과 대도시 범죄·혼란을 예상. 이는 단순 금융위기가 아니라 달러·국가부채 위기라고 봄. [Rickards의 반박] 연준은 인플레이션을 원하지만 12년간 달성하지 못했고, 7조 달러를 찍고도 소비자물가 인플레는 없었다고 주장. 대신 주식·부동산·채권 버블이라는 자산 인플레가 발생해 경제를 왜곡했다고 봄. 소비자물가가 상승했다는 Schiff 주장에 대해서는 CPI가 실제를 정확히 반영하지 못한다고 반론. [정의 논쟁] Rickards: 인플레이션은 통화량 확장이며 물가 상승은 그 결과일 뿐이라고 정의. Schiff: 중앙은행이 인플레를 물가로 재정의해 책임을 회피하며, 실제 원인은 정부·중앙은행의 통화 팽창이라고 주장. 두 사람은 정의 차이로 서로 엇갈린 논쟁을 벌임. [종목·자산 방향 언급] 특정 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 발언은 없음. 금은 Schiff가 디플레이션 시 금으로 측정된다고만 언급. [출연자 전망] 장기적으로 Schiff는 물가 급등·사회 혼란을, Rickards는 디플레와 자산 버블 붕괴 위험을 강조.
다듬은 글
all right we have a few minutes left so i have one last question for the both of you what are the major risks that you're looking out for today we're already living through the worst pandemic in recent history we're seeing a recession that some analysts would say is even worse than the great depression of the 1930s and in response we're seeing monetary stimulus on a historic level jim let's start with you how could things possibly get worse from here yeah well first of all i encourage everyone to stop using the word monetary stimulus there is no monetary stimulus there is money printing yes there is money printing and debt monetization but it has no stimulative effect you don't get inflation from printing money you get it from velocity which is psychological which the fed doesn't understand but the biggest threat is deflation peter you've you've argued that we could see inflation as a tax so uh how would you respond to that well first of all the only thing you're going to see deflation measured in is gold but in terms of fiat currency prices are going to go up dramatically because they will continue to print the dollar uh in in until until it no longer has value that's the only thing that's going to stop it but look what we've seen so far uh you know even with the civil unrest and the riots and the looting this is just a small dress rehearsal for what's coming because when the dollar crashes you know and and and prices skyrocket right these stimulus checks you know or you know whatever welfare benefits the government wants to dispense they're not going to be worth very much i mean they're because you're not going to buy anything and i think the government is going to respond to the surge in consumer prices uh with price controls kind of the way we did in the 1970s but prices are going to be rising much faster now than they did back then but i think there's going to be controls on all sorts of consumer goods and that means shortages that means long lines and i think there's going to be power rationing and so i think you're gonna see a real blow up particularly in in the cities there's gonna be a lot of crime a lot of violence associated with widespread shortages and a lack of food and power outages so things are gonna get pretty bad as we go through a a monetary crisis it's not you know this is not just a financial crisis this is a u.s dollar crisis and a sovereign debt crisis that's a whole other ball game jim i'll let you respond and close the argument yeah well i agree with peter that the fed wants inflation but they don't know how to get it and they haven't for the last 12 years well that's the one thing they do know how to do they can cause inflation that's all they can do they can print money they can't they can't pay they printed seven trillion dollars in 12 years and we got no inflation assets yes but i'm talking about i mean prices are higher than they were seven years ago consumer prices but we inflated a stock market bubble we inflated a real estate bubble we inflated a bond market bubble i mean asset prices went way up uh we distorted the economy based on all that inflation and look consumer prices have risen right i mean i don't care the way the government wants to keep track of them with their you know with the cpi the cpi is not an accurate reflection of what's actually happening with consumer prices uh it's uh it's pretty good look if you want to count assets you're you're right but you're changing the it's moving the goal post you're changing the definition no if you count assets yet if you can't assets yes but i count consumer prices or pc core deflator because that's how if you want to predict fed policy that's what they look at so you need to consider what the fed looks at i care about reality you know and prices prices are going up but that's not inflation because if the fed didn't create all this inflation maybe those prices would have really come down maybe consumers would have gotten the benefit of a lower cost of living but the fed stole that benefit away from them by creating inflation but look all of this inflation is going to come home to roost all of a sudden we're going to catch up and we're going to see dramatic increases in consumer prices and then when you go back over the entire period you can say oh look prices are up 10 a year or whatever they're going to be because all of a sudden they're going to shoot way up and it's not going to matter that they were benign uh for a while when all of a sudden they skyrocket and catch up to where they should have been but the cause was all the inflation the federal reserve has been creating the entire time well they i agree that the fed didn't do what they did we would have had more deflation in a way they were just fighting it to a standstill but we haven't had inflation for 12 years asset prices yes but that's not the definition of inflation the definition of inflation is an expansion of the supply of money and that's what we've had in space with this is the greatest definition of the world has ever experienced you can make up your own definitions be a definition of inflation it's higher prices jim i'm not making up the definition it's it's people today you go back and get a webster dictionary from 100 years ago and you read what inflation is and it'll it'll it'll say inflation is an expansion of the money supply supply of money and credit rising prices are an effect of inflation right prices don't exist prices go up and they go down money supply inflates you it's inflate is to expand right you don't expand prices what what is being expanded is a supply of money that's inflation inflation is an expansion of the money supply deflation is a contraction of the money supply the effects of inflation are def and deflation are on prices when you have inflation and you're late in my supply prices will go up and when you're deflating it prices will go down but sometimes you can inflate the money supply and prices don't go up because the inflation is preventing prices from going down but don't confuse changes in prices with changes in money supply money supply is in freight is inflation prices are just prices the problem here look we're talking we're talking past each other because we have two different definitions if you say that prices are flat but that's inflation fine that's not how any central bank in the world or any economist thinks about it yes the central bankers want to pretend that inflation has to do with prices because they don't want to be blamed for it when when you accept the real definition of inflation which is an expansion of the money supply then you know who causes it it's government it's central banks that cause inflation but governments want to blame inflation on the private sector that's why they want to redefine it as prices and you're playing into to their propaganda by trying to perpetuate the idea that inflation is caused by greedy businessmen raising their prices or slaves right now you're now you're way over the language you're saying inflation is prices going up you're putting words in my mouth that i never said i said that uh yeah inflation is measured by prices that's just that's just how you do it if you have a different definition that's fine inflation is measured by the money supply thank you very much jim records and peter schiff for being on the show uh it's a tremendous honor once again to have both of you so i do appreciate it and if you haven't watched parts one and two of this panel interview the links are down below thanks for watching until the very end i'm david lynn of kikko news stay tuned you
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