저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 경기침체와 주식 하락이 본격화되며 금은 2000달러 돌파 가능, 비트코인은 위험자산으로 하락, 연준 완화는 버블을 키울 뿐이라는 비관론. 주식시장: S&P500은 2월 이후 18% 하락, 골드만삭스는 추가 10% 하락 가능성 언급. Schiff는 하락 위험이 더 크다고 봄. 러셀2000은 25% 하락으로 가장 부진, 운송주는 더 하락. 금융주가 부실대출로 특히 취약. 경기 및 연준: 경기침체는 이번 분기 공식화될 것으로 전망. 연준 금리인하와 대규모 통화발행은 해결책이 아니며 오히려 부채 버블을 키움. 연준은 결국 제로금리와 QE로 회귀할 것이라고 주장. 금 전망: 금은 2008년보다 강세, 최근 몇 주간 상승. QE1 때처럼 1900달러 돌파 후 2000달러 이상으로 '뜨거운 칼이 버터를 가르듯' 상승 예상. 조건: 연준 정책 실패 인식 확산. 리스크: 없음 명시. 비트코인: 안전자산 아님. 최근 주식보다 더 크게 하락, 위험자산과 동조화. 반감기(약 두 달 후)가 상승 촉매가 아니라 하락 촉매가 될 수 있다고 주장. 비트코인 버블 붕괴 가능성. 국채: 미국 국채는 가장 위험한 자산 중 하나. 재정적자 확대와 연준 화폐발행으로 통화·국가부채 위기 우려. 정치: 트럼프 재선은 경기침체로 어려워 바이든 당선 가능성이 높고, 큰 정부 정책과 재정확대가 이어질 것이라는 전망. 공화당도 적자 문제에 반대하지 않게 됨. 기타: 코로나19를 버블을 터뜨리는 핀으로 보며, 문제의 본질은 부채 버블이라고 강조.
다듬은 글
the SNP is down 18% since February and Goldman Sachs coming out today saying we could see it drop another 10% in the bull market is likely to be over here my next guest has been saying this for quite some time Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital joins me now Peter good to have you back on the show Oh pleasure being back so I'm pretty sure I know where you were you stand on this you've been calling for the end of the glory days of the SNP for quite some time what do you make of Goldman's comments here well well too little too late but I guess give him a little credit for speaking the truth although I think the downside risk is quite a bit larger than what they're suggesting but of course the Federal Reserve could come to the rescue and I think they will try with massive money printing and you know I think that people have got this wrong you know everybody is looking at this event as deflationary but it is actually the opposite you're going to have a reduction of production so less supply of goods and the world is gonna be flooded with money not just a Federal Reserve but central banks around the world are meeting this crisis head-on with a printing press as if this is going to make a difference it's just gonna make a bad situation worse but you know we are entering another financial crisis the 2008 financial crisis was started by drop-in real estate prices this one is started by the coronavirus but what the what's causing the crisis is not the pins but the bubble it's the debt and it was because of all the debt that we had a crisis in Oh 8 and because we have even more debt now this is gonna I sure an even bigger financial crisis hmm you know just a few months ago when I heard the the real curb in Vernon we said you know when that tends to happen we could see a recession hit six months later is that playing out now oh yeah I mean look we're obviously gonna be in a recession it probably is starting officially in this quarter although they may have to go back and downwardly revised some of the number but clearly it's starting the bear market is starting I mean yes the Dow I think in the SP are not quite down 20% but look at the Russell 2000 that's down 25% the the transports are down even more than that and so they're leading the way and in fact you know the Russell 2000 that was what everybody billed as the Trump trade when Trump was first inaugurated yeah you got to buy the Russell 2000 it's a pure play on the US economy that's the major index that's doing the worst and then if you look internally it's the financials that are really getting killed and the reason they're getting killed is because they're holding all the bad paper they have made all the loans that are not going to get repaid so this is just like 2008 only it's not just the banks that are gonna need a bailout it's the hotels it's the airlines its companies like Boeing it's the cruise lines I mean look at all these companies that have loaded up with debt because the Fed has kept interest rates so low for so long now we have any kind of economic downturn I mean no matter how slight it may be and this may be more than a slight downturn but we were not prepared for anything we had nothing saved for a rainy day and now I mean we might we might not just get a drizzle we might get a downpour but we can't even handle a drizzle Peter I read with great interest your latest piece where you said the Fed only added fuel to the fire and that's basically what you're saying now with the rate cut and you know possibly we're gonna see another one again shortly so when you say you know the Fed might come to the rescue that's not the rescue plan what could they do well there's nothing they could do you know if they did the right thing the markets would collapse but you know they're not going to do the right thing they've never done the right thing so why would they start now but the point about the rate cuts is it's because of all the rate cuts in the past that the economy is so levered up right now and so vulnerable to this crisis but slashing rates to zero is not the solution right that's more of the problem the feds going to do it I mean I've been saying since the beginning from before the Fed even raised raised for the first time when they were bluffing about their ability to normalize interest rates I said it's impossible that before they succeed they're gonna reverse course and go back to zero when the Fed said they were gonna shrink their balance sheet I said that was impossible that if they tried they would have to abort it and go back to QE and that's exactly what happened and it's not because of the coronavirus because if it wasn't the coronavirus it would have been something else and you know too many analysts out there are focusing on the pin and they can't see the bubble for that pin forget about the coronavirus right what the problem is is the economy it's the leverage it's the debt that is the bubble that is deflating at this point doesn't even matter what happens to the pin because the air is gonna come out of this bubble this is the biggest bubble the Federal Reserve has ever inflated and it has done tremendous damage to the US economy and that damage is only going to become obvious to most people after the bubble deflates that's the real story because the government would say but look at the economy it's strong look at manufacturing numbers strong it's never been strong it's always been a bubble it's been in delusion there's never been any strength we've had record trade deficits we've had record budget deficits nothing has changed really since Obama was elected we just had a continuation of those failed policies and we just got a bigger bubble and now that bigger bubble is popping and unfortunately Donald Trump is going to get the blame just like George Bush you know the housing bubble popped towards the in the last year of Bush's second term and that meant John McCain had no choice chance against Barack Obama well the same thing is gonna doom the reelection of Donald Trump he now has no chance really against Biden because everything that collapses on his watch is going to be blamed on him and then by extension on tax cuts on deregulation on you know on a free market and so Biden is going to come in and implement more big government solutions two big government created problems and they're gonna give the Federal Reserve even more power to do even more damage and we're gonna have a currency crisis and a sovereign debt crisis during the Obama during the Biden administration if it doesn't start before Trump even finishes his term but that's gonna be much worse than just a financial crisis like we had last time and you and you had been saying this for months Peter that you didn't think president Trump would get reelected so now with the economic situation with coronavirus do you feel this has sealed the deal yeah you know I've been warning about this for some time at least it looks like we're not gonna get Sanders I mean that would have been the worst-case scenario so we're gonna end up getting a Joe Biden but Joe Biden's a Liberal Democrat and he's going to be pushed even farther to the left by the Obama wing of the party but the other problem is that during the Trump turn Trump term rather Republicans totally signed on to the idea that deficits don't matter they no longer cared about how much deficits we had or how much money the government spent so there's gonna be absolutely no opposition whatsoever when Obama was president at least the Republicans in the Tea Party were trying to lean against the expansion of government under Obama and they applied some type of break to the spending but that's not gonna happen this time around the Democrats are gonna have carte blanche to spend as much as they want on ridiculous stimulus programs and all of it is going to be financed by the Federal Reserve they're just gonna be printing money and so you know the people who think they're they're buying something safe by buying US Treasuries wait till they wake up Treasuries are probably the riskiest asset that people can be buying but they should be buying as gold because gold is gonna be the only safe haven left standing on that topic I want to ask you because this is probably the number one question I received all week well if there's this global market meltdown Peter Schiff why isn't gold above $2,000 an ounce you know it will be it will be but if you remember during the 2008 collapse the price of gold was collapsing - it just wasn't going down quite as much as the stock market maybe the stock market was down by about 50% and gold was down by about 30% but gold is not down at all Gold is still positive over the last several weeks since stocks really started to sell off on coronavirus and all the implications the price of gold is actually going up so gold is so much stronger now than it was in 2008 and if you remember once the market stopped falling in 2008 and then the Fed really came out with QE 1 and that monetary policy was out there for everybody to see the price of gold recovered it went from about 700 or whatever the low was never it fell from about a thousand at its peak in 2008 to around 700 maybe a little lower and then it exploded to almost 2000 I mean the price of gold came close to tripling on QE 1 the only reason it stopped going up is because everybody was convinced that the feds policy worked that it was a success that they can normalize interest rates and shrink their balance sheet well this time nobody is gonna believe that lie even if the Fed tries to tell it so its QE infinity the balance sheet I mean interest rates say and zero forever and so Gold's not gonna stop going up this time it's gonna go through that 1,900 mm high level like a hot knife through butter and it's going to keep on rising so you know don't just what you know worry hey why hasn't it gone up you know just buy it because it's got no place to go but up Peter Schiff I always appreciate your comments finally what are your thoughts on the coronavirus are you going around are you still giving that double cheek kisses and shaking hands are you fearful are you not how do you see things well you know I don't know yet I mean I hear a lot of mixed information I cancelled some travel plans I had to Asia when the virus first came out I was actually gonna be in South Korea and Japan so I didn't go there but you know we'll see what happens on that but you know I wanted to mention one thing and I'm surprised you didn't ask me about it and that's Bitcoin you tweeted the other damn but go ahead yeah because I think we've now answered the question that really wasn't a question in my mind but there was a debate going on as to whether or not Bitcoin was a safe haven a store of value an asset that people would flock to in times of trouble and and financial turbulence well I think the answer is no it's not a safe haven asset it is a very risky asset the price of Bitcoin has collapsed by more than the stock market during the last several weeks and in fact it's not even a non correlated asset a lot of the Bitcoin promoters when it was clear that kind of Bitcoin had decoupled from gold and that it wasn't acting as a safe haven then they started to say well its value is that it's non-correlated but I think that argument has got out the window not that it ever had much validity because if you look at the way bitcoins have been trading throughout this crisis it seems like it's very highly correlated with the stock market when the stock market goes down Bitcoin goes down more and then when the stock market goes up Bitcoin goes up but it goes up less so I don't really see what value Bitcoin brings to a portfolio and it seems negatively correlated to gold on days that you see the safe havens going up like gold the Japanese yen is Swiss franc you know or the Treasury market you see Bitcoin going down and vice versa so it's trading the opposite of a safe haven it's correlated to the risk assets only more risky so there is no place in anybody's portfolio for Bitcoin it's nothing more than a giant pyramid scheme which is what I've been saying from the beginning and the danger is that the bottom is going to drop out of this market because so many people have hope and holding on to Bitcoin for years assuming that it would act a certain way during a time like this and so now everything has happened that should have made Bitcoin go up right this is the best possible scenario for what Bitcoin was supposed to be Bitcoin is supposed to be skyrocketing and instead is collapsing and that's got a call into question the validity of holding on to this asset and then when the holders decide you know to bail out when the speculators decide that hey you know if the market won't go up on good news then I might as well get out because that's a sign that it's about to get killed and I think that's what's going to happen and I've been talking about how this coronavirus is the pin that's pricking a lot of bubbles and it's ironic that one of the bubbles that's being pricked is the Bitcoin bubble and of course you know we also had a lot of speculative buying because of the having we're now less than two months away from the halving and that was supposed to be the catalyst to send Bitcoin to the moon instead it's going to be the catalyst for it to come crashing down to earth if it hasn't already crashed by the time to having a curse all right well get ready for an influx of emails from the Bitcoin community leadership but according to you it is showing its true colors right now I appreciate your thoughts as always thank you so much for coming on n kik Oh calm
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