저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 코로나 공포로 인한 급락은 과잉 반응이며, 금·아시아 항공·여행주 등 폭락 자산은 분할 매수 기회라는 입장. 시장 상황: 시장 급락은 과열 후 조정이며 언론이 이유를 찾는 것일 뿐이라고 봄. 바이러스는 이미 3개월째 확산 중. 경기 전망: 미국은 역대 최장 경기확장 기간이라 침체가 임박했음. 아시아 소비 위축이 침체 촉발 요인이 될 수 있다고 봄. 금리 인하·양적 부양이 침체를 막지는 못할 것이라고 함. 금 관련: 금은 안전자산이지만 하락 시 현금 마련 매도가 나오므로 지금이 매수 기회. 본인은 오늘 오후 금을 매수하겠다고 밝힘. 금 하락은 과거 약세장에서도 보였던 패턴이라고 설명. 귀금속: 팔라듐·백금은 급등 후라 매수하지 않겠다고 함. 은도 드물게 급등했다고 언급. 주식 선호: 아시아 항공·여행·호텔·공항 관련주를 매수 대상으로 제시. 러시아 소재 기업도 1~2일 내 매수 의향. 인도는 아직 충분히 하락하지 않아 매수 보류. 리스크: 바이러스 확산이 길어지면 침체 가능성 증가. 정책 대응이 추가 부양으로 이어지면 마지막 거품 랠리 가능성도 언급. 정치: 샌더스 지지율 상승은 주가 하락과 무관하며 트럼프의 재선 가능성이 높다고 전망. 현직 대통령 패배는 역사적으로 어렵다고 설명. 개인 태도: 바이러스 공포 속에서도 본인은 두려움이 없으며 마스크도 쓰지 않는다고 함.
다듬은 글
coronavirus fears move stalks towards the worst week since the financial crisis so what is the key to navigating the sell-off well joining me today a very special guest legendary investor Jim Rogers Jim this does not happen often that we are in the same room you're exactly right it's been a few years delight and what a day to be in the studio of market sell-off here and obviously with all your wisdom and advice you know what should investors be doing here well it probably should be buying I know as a tribute to the virus but remember the virus has been around for three months now and the virus has been spreading a lot of places you asked me what's going on the marquee got overbought you know mark you went up 15 or 20 percent with Murchison yoke down days got overbought and now we're having a sell-off of course whenever there's a sell-off journalists find a reason they always have to have a reason they can't just like Oh was over about so here we have a reason but it's also important to keep in mind Jim you know and maybe you disagree or agree that just because the stock market is down is not a reflection of the economy necessarily no no the market fluctuates all the time I'm not the first to know that you're not the first to know that no we had many fluctuations this one is a severe one but they're up the run-up was this obeah one as well Jim you're in New York today I know you're based in Singapore can you give us insights us - you know what we're getting from the news we're getting from Asia is is it correct is a trustworthy wasn't situation really like I will - it is I would say they're such panic here in in the West if I can put it that way everybody's scared I'm on a couple of boards they don't want me to come to the meeting quarantine for 12 days that's amazing see I have no fear and I'm pregnant good for you do you know there's no reason for you to have any fear that's the point I'm drawing you but you know so far this year in America stuffing about twenty or thirty thousand people have died of the flu I don't see anybody panicking here running around because of the flu two or three thousand people have died of this particular flu but living in Asia yes the shops are empty yes the restaurants are empty because everybody's in panic if people are sick okay is this the danger to the economy though is not the behavioral change we'll see I'm the consumer yes everybody's panicking right so people are not going to go to restaurants people are not going to go to movies and whatnot so is that the real cause for concern yes then that is the cause the flu the virus is more or less is peaking certainly in China is peaking because they took draconian measures I mean they closed the whole place down which you probably couldn't do in most countries but they did it so it's it's in decline it's in decline in Asia but still the effects are gonna go on planes or empty restaurants or empty rest hotels or I go nut there's nobody there so it's having an effect so will we have a global recession because of it probably we're overdue as as you know it's been over ten years the longest in American history without a recession so we're certainly overdue what's happening in Asia is having a big effect on the economies of Asia that's not going to get even if the flu is over if the recovery percussions are gonna go on for a while it might tip us into a recession we're overdue so even if the Fed starts cutting rates right that's not going to save anything really because of the behavioral changes again well what you have in Asia and other places our government's panicking cutting rates printing money spending money the u.s.
is probably going to do that too if they get more and more panicked if you start seeing cases in New York or LA or places where the media is Washington oh my god Evans washing them they're gonna cut rates they're gonna spend more money and print more money and that might lead to the last big you know blow off it blow off rally now the question is Jim well gold supposed to be a safe haven and look at gold today as we're speaking last time I checked bought gold was down you know $55 I don't know because I want to go bus I know I know you've always said Daniella you know I like when gold goes down cuz that's my office ready to buy good my relief you can go buy some go what is it just a reaction are they just are people selling gold for cash to meet margin calls what's going on here well of course everything is going down and you go back to previous bear markets 2008 for instance everything went down including gold for a while ago went down a lot for a while usually in bear markets people have to sell and they sell everything in sight including gold and that's when you buy gold so you'd be buying here I'm gonna go buy this afternoon how about the PGM is do you like platinum palladium rhodium which has had a crazy run-up unto to lazy gold and silver well platinum I mean uh palladium has been a skyrocket no I don't think I would buy palladium platinum probably not even platinum because they you know all those those precious metals have gone up strike rockets amazing I don't think I've ever seen well silver back once or twice but you rarely see this kind of moving anything much less precious metals so I don't think I'll buy you buy should go KidCo I'm saving for the twins jump let me ask you said you would be buying you know equities here what companies in particular like insurance companies perhaps or no do you like goodbye Asia because Asians down the most I'm in Americas down 14% I mean that's big deal but you know China is that like 60% from its all-time high Japan no I would probably buy airlines in Asia because they have been decimated totally decimated things like Airlines tourist companies hotel chains airports yes yes remain you were liking India last time we spoke is that still are not buying India but if Indian he hasn't gone down enough yet the place I like to buy places at Russia I would be I there's a company in Russia I want to be buying in the next day or two places that are decimated but who is getting a bounce is Bernie Sanders so let me get your thoughts on politics here are you know are people just liking him more now because of this is there any correlation you think to the stock market drop you scared he's got simple answers he's going to make everybody make sure you don't get hurt you and have plenty of money but I don't think he'll win don't Trump will win it's very difficult to defeat a sitting president in America you know because and the reason is sitting presidents if they need votes over here they spend money over here the opposition cannot spend money over if they need money over here the votes are where they spend money over here so it's very very difficult historically to defeat a sitting president so overall how do you you're you're in New York now you didn't come here for refuge from Singapore I'm assuming as much as safe haven but you feel you know how do you feel well I what I have is I say the main thing I've noticed on this trip is that everybody's in a panic about the virus the fact that I I think I've been in Singapore three days in the last month but people know you live in Singapore you must be oh my god oh my god don't come close don't come to the media I'm here for board meetings don't come to the meetings phone in you know say haven't even been in Singapore except two or three days yeah this panic what was everyone wearing masks what many people were I wasn't but I I don't have a mask too much trouble I'm too lazy and too lazy so for I haven't gotten the virus Jim Rogers thank you so much it's much like and thank you for watching this very special edition of kick good news with Jim Rogers we'll have much more for you okay Coco
Comments 0