저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 연준의 완화정책과 달러 약세로 금이 2,000달러를 넘어 크게 오를 것이라고 본다. 미중 무역합의와 중동 긴장 완화는 실질적 효과가 없어 시장이 기대만 과도하게 반영했다고 평가. 관세는 여전히 남아 있다. 연준은 인플레와 부채 부담 때문에 금리를 낮게 유지하고 양적완화를 재개해 상황을 더 악화시키고 있다는 주장. 이는 달러를 훼손하고 금 상승으로 이어진다. 레이 달리오 등 월가 인사가 금 30% 상승 가능성을 언급한 것에 대해 쉬프는 동의하며, 대선에서 트럼프가 재선되지 않으면 금이 2,000달러를 넘고 장기적으로 더 오를 것이라 전망. 2011년 고점 1,900달러 이후 금 가격 흐름과 연준 신뢰 착각을 근거로 든다. 금광주는 금값 상승에도 연초 하락해 투자자 관심이 낮으며, 2000년 1월과 유사한 역발상 신호로 보고 금광주 매수를 권한다. 특히 주니어 광산주가 수익률 면에서 유리하다고 본다. 쉬프는 펀드 운용을 위임한 Adrian Day의 포트폴리오를 추천한다. 실물 금은 안전자산이며, 미국 소비자들은 트럼프 신뢰로 금을 사지 않지만 해외 투자자와 중앙은행은 매수 중이라고 설명. 2020년 대선에서 샌더스가 트럼프를 이길 가능성이 있다고 보고 있다. 출연자 개인 비트코인 지갑 분실 일화도 언급되었으며, 자신은 암호화폐에 부정적이라고 밝힌다.
다듬은 글
we are starting our coverage here at the V Ric in Vancouver and joining me now Peter Schiff a CEO of euro pacific capital he is also on my panel tomorrow the ultimate gold panel yes I didn't know this was your first interview you are my first interview today this is this is probably your first interview six months pregnant wins with twins I might add thank you Peter all right lots of stuff to cover today first and foremost let's talk about the recent news items China u.s.
we saw the the trade deal now signed we've seen a de-escalation of tensions with Iran is everything rosy in the world right now can we breathe a sigh of relief I doubted you know the markets I think want to believe that but you know the trade deal really doesn't amount to much I mean I was saying that from the beginning that it was more height and that I thought that the markets would actually get more out of the promise of a trade deal than actually the delivery of a deal that didn't live up to expectations and certainly this one did not nothing was really accomplished everything supposedly is back and loaded into phase 2 but I don't think there's gonna be a Phase two this is pretty much it and you know the markets or the rather that the government isn't even really getting rid of the tariffs the tariffs are still here so there's still a problem this is not a game changer for the US economy at all so I don't think this is really good news the Middle East I I think that the tension is probably somewhat less elevated than it was when the missiles were flying you know when they were retaliating but I think there is more tension now than there was before we took out a solo mania so I think the markets have more to worry about but what they really need to worry about is the US economy and the Fed policy because its Fed policy that's driven the rally but this Fed policy is very destructive to the US economy and ultimately to the US dollar let's talk about the Fed do you think that this will change out all their course of action well no I mean we're on a very disruptive course of action they're gonna keep on printing money they're gonna keep interest rates artificially low because they're afraid of the consequences of what they've already done so rather than deal with those consequences they want to kick the can down the road by making the consequences even worse which is what they've done by you know lowering rates again and going back to quantitative easing let's talk about goals now obviously we'll go into in-depth detail tomorrow Ray Dalio Bridgewater coming out saying hey we wouldn't be surprised if gold rallies 30% this year going up and above $2,000 an ounce and you're saying no surprise there I saw one tweet you put out on this you agree no I mean it gold could go a lot higher at fact I think if Trump is not reelected right if we get like president Sanders Gold should go above 2000 this year and if it's not above 2000 by the election it should be a 2000 election night if we get the results but ultimately gold goes much higher than that because remember gold got up to 1900 back in 2011 and that was following a 10-year run where gold started below 300 so we had a big move but the reason that gold got that high was because people initially had the correct reaction to QE and zero percent rates that this was a disaster and that their Fed was not going to be able to get out of this but then all of a sudden the Fed managed to convince everybody at least everybody who counted not me but you know the mainstream fed hey they could normalize interest rates and shrink their balance sheet and everything was gonna be fine and it was based on that false belief that gold pulled back but now that people are coming to the conclusion that QE is indefinite and that rates are never going to normalize the bottoms going to drop out of the dollar and that means gold goes through the roof what do you make of or when you hear that these Wall Street execs are coming out in favor of gold because for the longest time as you know you know Wall Street has not really been favorable to to gold and there's still not I mean you're talking about Dalio there's a couple of guys that are talking about it Jeff Gunlock I mean but these guys are not mainstream thinkers I mean they're smart guys but you know if you look at the typical investment portfolio of a hedge fund or of you know major investors endowments pension funds they've got no exposure to gold in fact gold stocks have outperformed the SP the last four years they beat the SP in 2019 they beat the SP over the last two years in fact last year the SP was up 30% but earnings were down 1% gold stocks were up about 40% but earnings were up about 80% but despite that year to date even though gold is up another two and a half percent so far in January gold stocks are down and so there isn't a lot of enthusiasm for both stocks in the investment community the last time this happened where gold was off into January and gold stocks were down was 2000 20 years ago you're bringing that up because that's the majority of the emails I'm getting right now is you know with gold up why aren't some mining stocks performing investors are frustrated yeah because look they're not bullish you know but if this is a repeat of 2000 think about January of 2000 that was the peak of the Nasdaq bubble and it was the bottom of a 20-year bear market in gold so even though gold started 2000 going up investors were still negative on the stocks why are they so negative now even though we've had a big increase in earnings of gold companies and gold stocks have been doing well they're climbing a wall of worry people are rushing into the Nasdaq when they should be buying gold stocks so I think this is probably a harbinger of good things to come I would take this as a contrarian indicator and we should be buying gold stocks I mean I'm already you know all-in but if you're not you should be getting into this sector and you should be taking the advantage of the hype in the US stock market and selling your particularly or Nasdaq type stocks what are you buying in the mining stock site is it the juniors the mid tiers you want the barracks what do you like obviously I mean Barrack I think is pretty well positioned right now but that the best gains are going to be in the juniors if you get the right ones right of course you could buy they're the wrong ones that's why look I've turned over my stock picking in that area to Adrien day who is also here I don't know if you're gonna do an interview with a but he manages my goal fund we got five stars which is the most they give I even got a plaque from lipika so I had the best goal fund for the five years ended December of last year we gave back a little bit of ground last year but we're still 5 stars but I think that was because some of our positions really haven't you know matured yet but I think we've got a great portfolio so I think the best way to really get exposure to that junior sector is through my gold fund because I think Adrian has created a great portfolio with tremendous potential of course if I'm right the price of ball goes off so also you're also loved physical gold you buy physical yeah well they're very different animals I mean visible gold is a very secure conservative store of value it's an alternative to keeping cash right rather than keeping dollars or euros you know keep gold once you get into gold mining stocks you got a whole new element of risk you're an investor in a mining company there are a lot of different things that can go wrong but I think there's a lot of stuff that can go right for the miners that is not priced into those stocks I want to use that to segue into a crazy story you told me we were on we just happened to be on the same flight last night and you shared with me what happened to your you have a big you have a wallet Bitcoin wall well I can't access it now but I have it if you can share with everyone what happens so people were gifting you Bitcoin you've been you know you're not an advocate of that cryptocurrency yeah I mean well what happened is so initially I I did a debate with Erik Voorhees at the Soho forum you could see that debate on internet on YouTube it's got over half a million views so it's a popular limit so after dinner Eric and I went out you know after the debate we went out to dinner and Eric set up a wallet for me on blockchain calm I never had one right and so he gave me a hundred bucks worth of Bitcoin and then I gave him 50 bucks back so I had $50 worth a big point in this wallet right and then since I had that wall I went to it like the money show and I had some copies of one of my dad's books and one guy wanted to give me some cryptocurrency and since I had this new wall I said okay and so he gave me some ether and some Bitcoin cash so I had you know and it was about 60 so I had like maybe $100 worth of crypto in my wallet so I was on a panel with Jeffrey Tucker had at Freedom Fest and during that panel he you know I mentioned to him that I have this wallet now and I have you know Bitcoin I've got Bitcoin cash I've got ether because I know he was a big crypto component proponent and I you know I had not been really endorsing it so I mentioned him like ironically look I've got some now it was a tiny amount so anyway then Jeffrey does an interview on the radio just oh yeah I was doing this panel with Peter Schiff and he told me oh I got Bitcoin I got picked Comcast I got a list so now all of a sudden there's rumors were circulating all over the internet that I'm a secret vid corn hotter right like like even though I'm like trashing Bitcoin I'm just buying I have all this money in Bitcoin and so I'm not being honest I mean I'm just I really believe in it but because it's negative for my gold business I'm publicly so what happened is I was like no this isn't true I mean I've got a tiny amount of crypto that I got for free and so then you know Anthony pop Leon o is like oh you got a wallet give me your address I'll give you a hundred bucks worth right everyone's just like people aren't getting gift getting gift well but anyway this so here goes the story so Anthony Pompeii so I'll give you some money so I said okay here's my wallet and I gave him that I had never really used it so I gave my wild idea initially I gave him the wrong one and then I gave him the right one and Anthony never gave me the hundred bucks but other people gave me about two thousand dollars worth all of a sudden I started getting all these little gifts so that was the entire content of my wallet and so I was on the internet the other day and somebody was bringing up the fact that I was you know secret bitcoin holder and so I wanted I went to check out my wallet on my on my phone and I go to login I don't have the normal normally it just has a a keypad and I push in my numeric code and all of a sudden it says hey I've been logged out or something's wrong I got to log back in and my code doesn't work anymore my password and so now my big quarter gone and I contacted Eric and he's like well you know you need to have your you're like phrase your memory frit I'm what I don't what's that you never told me about that he set it up for me moral of this story is easy come easy go I mean I lost all of my Bitcoin that I was holding on to right I've lost it all it's all gone you want us tips and advice for Peter Schiff well people think but again they think I forgot my password a hundred percent no I know exactly what my password was it was very simple it's impossible for me to not remember it it's just that the wallet doesn't recognize it anymore and and I have no way of retrieving it so my Bitcoin are still in that wallet they just can't be accessed so you know initially of course you know they have no intrinsic value now they have no market value because even if I wanted to sell them I can't so that's this that's my crypto silo it turns out that crypto is my worst investment ever because I lost a hundred percent but at least at least I didn't buy him I got him for free had I bought some that would have been even worse thank you for sharing that with us Peter and then before I let you go I gotta ask you a question about politics you always have a lot to say on this you know we're in a presidential election year fireworks are already flying if I ask you to evaluate the past four years of President Trump you know when it comes to life I'm a business step from the economists em well from a business standpoint it's been bad I mean it's certainly been bad for my gold business gold sales have been lousy under Trump fact ironically the Perth Mint came out they had a record year last year in gold sales the US Mint had the worst year ever data sorry on not on cam the reason is I know my customer the gold customer is a Republican they're the ones that talk about sound money that are worried about big deficits and about inflation and the Federal Reserve but since they're so convinced that Trump is such a great guide he's made America great again they're not buying gold and so fears not there right now I think once Trump is replaced I mean my business is gonna boom I wish Trump though would have done the right thing instead of just continue to you know blow the interesting because I remember when he was running everyone thought this is going to be great for gold Trump and gold are gonna go hand in hand and you know ironically gold is up more during the Trump presidency during the three years than the eight years of Obama I mean gold initially rallied in Obama but if you look at how much gold went up from his inauguration to the time he left office it's gone up more gold price has done well but not gold it's not translating into physical gold sales well no because Americans aren't the ones buying and also part of the problem for Americans is Gold is setting a record high in every currency but the dollar so foreigners are able to see the bull market better and gold is beating almost every foreign stock market Gold is up 50% over the last four years that's more than almost every market except the US market central bankers are buying oh yeah well the smart ones are the dumb ones maybe or not but the smart ones are and they're gonna keep buy so Americans just don't get it they're not worried because they think Trump is great the stock market is in a big bubble and they're buying stocks they should be buying gold but they're not they will but at much higher price you'd like to see him debate Sanders Warren well iDEN for entertainment purposes like the Sanders debate would obviously be more entertaining I think I know I think Sanders represents the bigger threat because I think he's actually a better candidate not that he'd be a better president he'd be a terrible president but I think he's more appealing as the socialist salesman now the question is you know you can bring up a lot of old videos of you know communist Bernie Sanders out there you know and the question is you know will that turn voters off I mean it's certainly gonna turn off a trump voters I mean we Republicans from voters I don't know how that will play though with some of the Reagan Democrats that that may have voted for Trump but we'll see but he's at least perceived as being genuine and honest I think there's still a lot of skepticism of Elizabeth Warren even though they're both peddling this democratic socialism and and Warren is like kind of pretending to be a capitalist to her bones right I mean there is no pretense with Sanders I mean he's he's socialist to his Beau's so we'll see but if you look at the current polls Anders is beating Trump now that may change you know once he's actually the candidate but wolves but they're also the economy may change at least the perception the coverage may change right the bubble may burst and in a more spectacular way so we definitely can't follow the polls at the last election was any proof of that Peter Schiff thank you so much I will see you tomorrow morning for the ultimate goal panel I can't wait for that thank you so much for stopping by oh my pleasure a lot of people to see and thank you for watching we're just starting our coverage we'll have much more for you on kake.com you
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