저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준의 양적완화와 금리 인하로 달러가 약세를 보이고 금이 크게 오를 것이며, 비트코인은 하락할 것이라는 주장. 경기침체 전망: 역전된 수익률 곡선이 정상화된 것은 침체가 회피된 것이 아니라 지연된 것이며, 다음 침체는 대(大)침체보다 더 심각할 것이라고 봄. 연준이 2020년 선거까지 시간을 벌었는지가 관건이라고 언급. 연준 정책과 인플레이션: 현재 연준의 자산 매입은 사실상 양적완화이며, 금리는 인위적으로 낮은 상태. 연준이 2% 인플레이션 목표를 사실상 포기하고 과거 미달분을 보상하려 한다고 비판. 인플레이션에 항복한 연준으로 인해 달러가 폭락할 것이라고 전망. 금 가격 전망: 달러 약세가 본격화되면 금이 달러 기준과 모든 통화 기준에서 급등할 것이라고 봄. 2019년 말 금은 약 1,500달러이며 과거 2011년 고점(약 1,900달러) 이후 2015년 말 약 1,000달러까지 조정 후 약 50% 상승. 금이 1,500→2,000달러는 빠르게, 2,000→3,000~4,000달러도 빠르게 갈 수 있다고 봄(조건: 대중이 뒤늦게 매수에 나설 때). 2020년 상반기 금 상승을 기대하며 보유 권고. 비트코인 전망: 비트코인은 거품이 붕괴한 약세장이며 2년 전 고점 이후 하락 추세가 지속될 것이라고 봄. 2019년 12월 기준 약 7,000달러로, 올해 초 약 14,000달러까지 올랐다가 하락. 반감기는 의미 없고, 1만2천 달러 안정 전망은 업계 홍보에 불과하다고 비판. 기관 자금 유입은 연기금·기금 운용자들이 책임을 우려해 투자하지 않을 것이라 주장. 비트코인은 가치가 없어 저장 가치(디지털 금)가 될 수 없고 교환 수단으로도 기능하지 않는다고 봄. 초기 투자자는 매도하라고 권고. 출연자 전망: 인플레이션이 제도권에서 사실상 용인되는 상황에서 금 상승은 필연적이라는 입장을 반복적으로 강조함.
다듬은 글
let's talk about recession since a lot of you know bank reports have been reading and annual reports have been attending up said oh no recession fears are out the window now you know we're not talking about the inverted yield curve any worse that said re inverted right well the fact that the curve has inverted I don't think means that recession has been avoided I mean maybe it's been delayed a little bit in fact typically when you have recessions the yield curves will normalize prior to the recession they invert initially because you know the Fed doesn't see the recession coming and then by the time it starts cutting rates it's too late so they did cut rates and that you know unwound there is the the yield curve but I still think we're headed for recession I think the recession is going to be much more severe than the period that we now refer to as the Great Recession but yeah they may have bought some time the question is did they buy enough time to make it to the 2020 election Peter let's talk a gold now last time we spoke you said that inflation could drive gold to $5,000 with more money being pumped into the financial system in the form of repos can we expect a monetary base to expand and push inflation up soon well it is expanding I mean that technically is the inflation the Fed is doing quantitative easing again QE for now they don't want to call it war but that's exactly what it is I mean there's no difference between what they're doing now and what they were doing when they did call it QE except when they had QE at least there was like an official policy to do it now they're just doing it but they've actually assured the markets that even though it's not QE they're gonna keep doing it pretty much indefinitely and so the monetary that the defense balance sheet is growing money supply is growing interest rates are artificially low so there is a lot of inflation in fact the Fed has now officially come out and really changed its mandate because the mandate was 2% inflation but now they're saying we need to have higher inflation in 2% because we have to make up for all the years when it was less than 2% which is all a bunch of nonsense but I've been saying for years that this is what the Fed was going to do they can't fight inflation they have surrendered to inflation and when the markets figure this out right the dollar is gonna tank gold is gonna take off I mean the only reason that gold isn't already up more this year just remember at the end of last year a year ago today all the experts on Wall Street everywhere around the world who were supposedly exports they were predicting that we'd have three to four rate hikes this year couldn't have been more wrong we had three rate cuts right well all of those rate hikes that never happened were in the dollar they were you know in the foreign exchange markets they people had discounted those hikes and when the Fed surprised everybody by doing exactly what I said they were gonna do the dollar didn't fall and gold went up a bit but gold would have gone up more had the dollar priced out all those rate hikes that were priced in but I still think that's coming I think a big decline in the u.s.
dollar is coming and in that environment that's when you're gonna see the price of gold really take off and of course not just in terms of dollars but in terms of every currency in the world it'll just make it even bigger move in terms of dollars you know you've been a long-term gold a bowl here Peter so when you say it's gonna take off what are you expecting for 2020 let's talk about the first six months well as you said I've been bullish for a long time of course I started recommending gold to my clients when it was under $300 an ounce so you know at around 1500 we're up about fivefold since I started recommending it you know about 20 years ago as a professional so it's still you know not a bad return but ever since gold peaked out in 2011 right it almost got the 1900 and so we've you know we've been correcting we bottomed out at the end of 2015 and around a thousand and you know we've moved up about 50 percent since those lows so there's no way of knowing I mean it's you know I'm surprised I mean had you asked me 10 years ago where would the price of gold be today I wouldn't have guessed 1,500 I would have thought it would have been hired by now so it's always hard to know you know I think the price of gold is going up next year all right so I want to own it but I don't know how much it's going to go up but I do believe that once we really start to take off I mean Kolka go from 1,500 to 2,000 very quickly it can go from 2,000 to 3,000 or 4,000 very quickly because I think what a lot of people suddenly realize what they should have known for years and you see their herd all at once scrambling to try to buy some Bowl because hardly anybody owns it now the price can go up very very rapidly so the key is to own your bowl before that's Stampede so you don't get trampled you know as everybody else is bidding it up Peter finally I want to get your thoughts on Bitcoin you've been very vocal about your dislike of the cryptocurrency in the past but everyone is preparing for the halving of Bitcoin Bloomberg issuing a report today that it will become more mainstream in 2020 that prices should stabilize around $12,000 have you changed your stance at all on the crypto well yeah well first of all half of nothing is still nothing so the halving doesn't doesn't mean anything and you know I don't hate Bitcoin because there's nothing there to hate it's existed in abstraction now a lot of people have confused it for gold they think it's digital gold as I've said it's just simply fool's gold I mean it's not going to twelve thousand I mean it briefly got up to fourteen thousand earlier this year as we're recording it's barely holding on to seven thousand so I just think that we're in a bear market Bitcoin topped out about two years ago in fact a little over two years ago so the price of Bitcoin has been falling for the past two years and I expect that to continue but I also expect a lot of propaganda from people who are working in the Bitcoin industry that have a vested interest in pumping the price higher who owned a lot of Bitcoin who need more buyers to come into the market and they're constantly going to come out with these pie-in-the-sky forecasts of 25,000 50,000 a hundred thousand a million dollars of Bitcoin no matter how low the price goes to try to keep the whole dollars on board to try to you know get this momentum I don't think you're gonna see the institutional money they've been talking about that for years I don't think that's going to happen I mean it's rare that the institutions are the bag holders for the mom-and-pop retail investors I don't think that's gonna happen I just don't see portfolio managers especially you know endowments pension funds I don't see them a gambling on on Bitcoin with other people's money and then being held responsible for the losses so again that's just wishful thinking to try to drive this narrative that this is going to be adopted as an alternative to gold it's not I mean the original purpose of Bitcoin was to be an alternative at two dollars or Euros it was supposed to be money was supposed to be used to buy a cup of coffee well because that is impossible that's not practical for a number of reasons and it doesn't happen they tried to reinvent it as well it's a store of value it's digital gold but there is no value in Bitcoin so you can't store what you don't have I mean gold is a store of value because it has a lot of value and gold can also function as a medium of exchange it's not functioning as one now but it has in the past and it could again in the future but Bitcoin has never really been a meeting of exchange it wasn't in the past and it won't be in the future so they're trying to you know put lipstick on the pig and claim it's a store value but there's nothing to store so I just think it's gonna keep going down and I feel badly for people who make the mistake of correctly identifying that there is a problem in with fiat money and that they need to hedge against inflation but then who make the mistake of thinking that bitcoin is gonna provide that hedge it's not gonna do it it's gold and I know all the young people think guys like me are just a bunch of old fools who are out of touch and don't get the technology what I'm gonna say is all the young people are naive and they don't have the experience and there's and they don't have the wisdom and just they're just falling for basically what amounts to a fraud and yeah I was gonna say you certainly have not lost your passion on this topic I feel it and I will make sure max keiser gets that message yeah you know I saw your interview where he called me an imbecile and a and all kinds of things and you know I I don't necessarily insult the intelligence of the people who you know or buy Bitcoin I mean I I think there's a lot of smart guys that are buying it but unfortunately they're not smart about investing they may be smart about a lot of things and yeah you know people who got into Bitcoin a long time ago I mean max bought some Bitcoin a long long time ago and if he's smart he'll sell but you know P a lot of people can you know confuse brains for a bull market or in this case brains for a bubble but you know if you if you did get in early then get out because if you don't then you know none of those games are gonna matter when they've been lost no I thought you handled that really well Peter great conversation I hear today really a lot of good thoughts thank you so much for joining us for this outlook series I appreciate your time and I'll see you soon you
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