저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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트럼프 탄핵과 2020 재선, 경기·증시 전망, 연준 금리 인하 가능성에 대한 Peter Schiff의 비관적 견해 정리 결론: 경기 약화 시 트럼프 재선 가능성이 낮아지며, 증시는 버블 상태로 보고 연준의 추가 금리 인하가 불가피하다고 봄. 탄핵 전망: 하원 탄핵 가능성은 높지만 상원에서 유죄 판결·파면은 어려울 것으로 봄. 정치적 역풍 여부는 1년 뒤 실물경제에 달려 있다고 함. 재선 전망: 트럼프가 재선될 가능성은 있으나 과거보다 전망이 약화됐다고 봄. 시장의 낙관과 달리 실제 경기는 좋지 않다는 입장. 고용 주장: 공식 실업률은 낮지만 시간제 불완전고용과 구직 포기자를 감안하면 실질 실업률은 높다고 주장. 트럼프도 과거 오바마 시기에 같은 논리를 폈다고 지적. 경제 공약 평가: 제조업 부흥, 국가부채 상환, 정부 축소 등 트럼프 공약이 대부분 이행되지 않았고, GDP 성장률도 오바마 2기와 큰 차이가 없다고 평가. 민주당 후보 전망: 경기침체가 현실화되면 민주당 후보가 누구든 트럼프가 패배할 것으로 봄. 증시가 고점을 유지하고 경기가 괜찮다면 블룸버그가 가장 유리하다고 언급하며 바이든도 승산이 있다고 봄. 샌더스·워런은 사회주의 리스크로 불확실하다고 봄. 연준 전망: 이번 회의 동결 가능성이 높다고 보지만 금리 인상은 없을 것으로 판단. 금리는 제로까지 인하 여지가 남아 있다고 봄. 증시 상승은 금리 인상 공포 해소에 따른 것이라 평가. 증시·경기 전망: 내년 중 경기 둔화 또는 증시 조정이 올 가능성이 있으며, 증시가 떨어지면 연준이 시장 요구에 따라 금리를 인하해 지지할 것으로 봄. 현재 증시는 버블이라는 인식이 깔려 있음.
다듬은 글
the Democrats have announced two articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump markets are unmoved shrugging off the news but what are the real consequences here joining me today is Peter Schiff CEO of euro pacific capital peter good to see you welcome back to the show oh thanks for having me back on the show well I'm happy to ask you this question could president Trump be the first president to be impeached by the house exonerated by the Senate and then possibly reelected by the people in the same almost year well I suppose I mean if the house does in fact impeach the president and it certainly looks like they're headed in that direction I can't see any circumstances where the Senate would actually convict him and remove him from office but you know I don't think he's going to get reelected I mean it's not impossible I was you know I thought it was far more likely that he was elected originally but I don't think his prospects are as great now as they were back then although the conventional wisdom is the opposite most Paul people thought that he had no chance of winning last time and they think he can't lose this time because they think we have this great economy but we don't we just have another stock market bubble and we'll see how the the impeachment plays out politically I mean that's really what we're doing here the Democrats are doing this for political purposes and we'll see if it backfires or works to their advantage but I think a lot of it is gonna have to do with what's happening in the real economy in you know a year from now and maybe to a lesser extent the stock market but a lot of people point to the unemployment rate saying look 50 year lows what more could we want well sure I mean the unemployment rate was very low when Obama left office I mean the unemployment rate at least the official rate was declining for almost the entirety of the Obama presidency and when Donald Trump ran against low unemployment he said that the numbers were fake that they were phony that it was a fraud that it was a hoax and that if you looked at the real unemployment rate where you looked at all the people that were working part-time that wanted to work full time all the discouraged workers who had dropped out of the workforce that the real unemployment rate was much higher and that's still the case today we still have a lot of people with part-time jobs that want full-time jobs we still have a lot of discouraged workers who are not in the labor force so you can certainly make the same argument against Trump that Trump made against against Obama the reason that Trump won is because Obama was selling a lie or not Obama Hillary Clinton was selling a lie that we had a real recovery under Obama well the voters knew that there was no real recovery well we'll see if you know they have the same realization in in 2020 because Trump made a lot of promises that he hasn't kept about raising the standard of living of average Americans about revitalizing manufacturing about making America great again about paying off the national debt about making government smaller there are a lot of boasts that that Trump had but the only thing he can really claim credit for is a record high in the stock market but again we had record highs under Obama and Trump said well who cares about the stock market because that's just a bubble well now the only thing he does care about really is the stock market and the same fake unemployment numbers that he once criticized because the GDP growth under Trump is not measurably different than it was in Obama's second term what you know which candidate you have a feeling as to who on the Democrats could possibly take out President Trump in well I mean I think if the economy is weaker if we're actually in a recession technically if the media acknowledges that we're in recession then I think it doesn't matter who the Democrats nominate even if it's Warren or Sanders I think Trump is going to lose now if they managed to keep everything going so that we can still pretend that everything is okay and it's a stock market is still near record highs at the time of the election then you know if for some reason Mayor Bloomberg were to get the nomination which seems not very likely but I think Bloomberg has the greatest chance with the market you know near the highs and the economy not in recession I think Bloomberg of all the Democrats has the best chance of winning and of course he would be the least bad president of that group but you know he's not the nominee which is probably likely we'll see I mean I do think that Biden certainly has a good chance of beating Trump if the if we're not in recession but whether or not the country is willing to take a longshot bet on socialism and elect the Sanders or a Warren we'll see that's a tough call I mean Trump could beat either one of those candidates under the right circumstances but if the stock market is tanking if we're in a recession then again it doesn't matter who the Democrats nominate Trump's losing let's talk about the Fed now markets not pricing and near certainty that rates would be unmoved at tomorrow's meeting and a high probability that they will stay unchanged next next year are they done cutting no I mean they're not done you know until they get to zero and then we'll see if they're done or you know if they want to try to go negative I agree there is a low probability that they're gonna cut this week the Fed has seemed to be indicating to the markets that it's going to wait and see but what the Fed has assured the markets is that under no circumstances will they raise rates then it really doesn't even matter what the data is the only decision that the Fed has to make is do rates stay the same or do they go down and I think that's the only reason that the stock market has rallied it's based on that app output where the fear of a rate hike is no longer in the market but I do think at some point next year the economy will be weakening or maybe we will get a sell-off in the stock market and the only way for the Fed to try to prop the market back up would be to start doing more rate cuts and they will supply them as soon as the market demands them
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