저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
연준이 데이터 의존적이라 금리 인하를 서두르지 않는 상황. 시장은 6월 인하 확률을 약 16%로 반영. 엘-에리언은 연준이 최소 2회 인하해야 경기 둔화를 막을 수 있으며, 6월 금리 인상은 큰 정책 실수가 될 것이라고 주장. 연준 신뢰도가 훼손된 상태에서 인플레이션 목표를 2~3%로 점진적으로 옮기는 방안도 제시. 연준은 대선과 무관하게 옳다고 판단하는 대로 움직일 것이라는 전망.
다듬은 글
because there's been a lot of discussion on this so-called soft economic Landing versus a hard one which would be a recession and it seems we're in a no Landing scenario where inflation struggles to reach 2% at all factors like Rising oil prices higher shelter costs and a resilient economy are the reasons so it's now when or if the plane will finally touch down black group please prepare for landing fed officials are warning it'll take some time before we hear that prepare for landing we do not expect that it will be appropriate to lower our policy rate until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% we ought to go all the way because if we stop short then you all are going to say well maybe they're going to stop short next time Services we thought was going to be extremely persistent has actually come down and the puzzle is that housing inflation has not come down as we expected Muhammad Alan's with me Julius as well to do battle over this Muhammad is Julia right that it's June is off the table in many ways I think she is in fact the market is now pricing only a 16% probability of a June cut so uh if if is there the possibility in your view that we could actually see a rate rise it's not an impossibility but it would be a huge mistake and it would be yet another fed policy mistake why we have a Fed that is very data dependent they love that phrase Richard it means they look at what has happened yesterday in order to determine what will happen tomorrow because their tools act with a lag so if we continue with hot inflation prints which we probably will for some time then there's a risk that the FED will not only not cut weights but would increase it but that will be a huge mistake because the economy is starting to weaken and if they look forward six to 18 months they would end up making The Slowdown even worse so this is a very delicate time and one in which the FED has to go from being data dependent driving the car looking at the rearview mirror to being strategic and looking forward Julia Mohammad you've long said that 2% is the wrong target for the FED now in this environment and actually they should be mentally thinking about a target of around 3% which argues what you're saying which is look even if you have slightly higher inflation that we're looking at today it's not a problem you don't have to message about needing to either hike rates or perhaps not cut rates how far away from that are we when one you look at the data and when you try and read between the lines on what the fed's thinking even if it's not what they're saying so I think the data and I think more generally what's happening to the supply side globally confirms that 2% is not the right inflation Target but the FED will not come out and say we're changing our inflation Target because they have overshot it for so long remember inflation was over 9% they have overshot it for so long that the last thing they'll want to do is change the Target because their credibility is already damaged so what they would have to do which I think is the right thing is keep on promising us 2% in the future see whether we are stable at 3% inflation I think we will be and then slowly move from a 2% Target to a two to 3% Target that's totally doable and that would not sacrifice what has been US economic exceptionalism how do they communicate that oh go on Richard I'm taking over no you see you see we're ganging up on your M it's not often we both get to attack you and what but to take your very to take your point mam if they do that I mean they are their credibility is already in the toilet essentially they are saying well don't don't listen to what we say just sort of follow on light later yeah the alternative is worse like we shouldn't be here and we we're here because they mischaracterize inflation as transito in 2021 you and I spoke about it I spoke to Julia about this and they were late so they got here because of a policy mistake the worst thing to do is to add a second policy mistake you know there is no world of first best once you make a policy mistake so is it perfect no is it without risk no but it sure dominates the alternative of sacrif ing economic growth and hitting the most vulnerable segments of the population with lower wages with unemployment at a time when their paycheck has already been eroded due to high inflation Julia then when are the markets when are the markets you're going to grow up and behave like adults instead of children in a playground who've been told you're not going to get a sweet or some candy because that's what today's all about Richard you're being really tough today fed credibility in the toilet and investors acting like um you know little children that having the lollipop taken away come on two of you we're not far away from record highs I would say and that reality check I mentioned going from you wanting it all in January and seeing six to seven quartero rate Cuts we're now at one to two so I I think they've been growing up steadily perhaps over this year I guess my question to mahabad at this point is if they're not willing to suggest that they perhaps going to in their minds move that inflation Target what is the right policy to get us to the soft Landing that Richard was talking about without necessarily communicating because you're saying that they won't do that but they could at least use policy to achieve it what's the right policy to do that so I need two things communication and action communication is slowly pivoted to First characterizing the 2% inflation Target as longer term chair pal has started doing that and then second take a more strategic view and say holistically we are not going to be over dependent on past numbers but we're going to look forward and then in terms of action they're going to have to come through with a couple of cuts this year if they do not cut a couple of times this year they will unduly sacrifice growth and we may see the end of US economic exceptionalism I'm going to get one more to how uh it's an election year history shows that the FED moves regardless um if you look at the last goodness knows how many elections either both up and down they do continue during it but this is going to be an election like none other for obvious reasons so Mard um do you think there is a point upon which they will say we cannot move because we will be perceived as getting involved in the election I don't think so rich I think like what you said earlier I I agree the FED will do what the FED thinks is right however whatever they do Richard they're going to be blamed if they cut they'll be blamed by President Trump for favoring President Biden and if they don't cut it's going to be the other way around so they will be blamed whatever they do but I truly believe they will do what they think they need to do thank you sir you've been very generous allowing both of us to have a go at here um to have a but a great discussion and great to have you Julia thank you you'll be with us in a couple of hours on S and thank you for doing double duty as well kind of you both
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