저자: JimRogers,BillHolter · 외국인
요약 보기
은 가격이 50% 조정 후 투기적 포지션(미결제약정) 축소로 새로운 기반이 형성되어 연말 전 금·은 신고점 가능. 금은비율은 67:1이 과대평가일 수 있어 은이 금보다 상대 우위 가능. 고금리와 사상 최고 수준 부채로 금융시스템 취약, 엔캐리 트레이드 붕괴 위험 언급. 다만 은의 변동성과 확실한 결과는 불확실하다는 해설도 포함.
다듬은 글
All you have to do is look at the open interest in silver. All that is gone now. The influence of speculators has completely diminished. There is no longer as much speculative business as there was in December and January, and we needed a correction then . But I didn't think there would be a 50% correction in silver , but it happened anyway.
But from here, the foundation is being built , and you will definitely see gold and silver reach new highs by the end of the year. Price is important to me, because I buy more when the price goes down. I haven't sold any gold or silver yet, but if prices drop, I hope I'll have the intelligence to recognize it and buy more .
When things go wrong , gold and silver always save us. The latest precious metals discussion focuses on the massive correction in silver, and whether a drop in speculative investment could pave the way for another big rally. Bill Holter and Jim Rogers argue that highly speculative investments have already been eliminated, which could lay a healthy foundation for future profits.
Open interest is an important indicator to determine how strong traders are in the futures market. According to recent market data , investment rush in silver has slowed down significantly compared to the previous highs. The bullish argument is that a painful washout will eliminate weak investors before new growth can occur.
Seen from this perspective, temporary weakness appears as an opportunity to accumulate precious metals, rather than abandon them. In my opinion , the idea of a rebuilt foundation makes sense, but open interest alone does not confirm that a major breakout is coming . Silver is still very volatile, and current technical conditions need to support the bullish argument.
The long-term rationale behind owning metals is different than short-term futures investments. If you found this information use . Turn on the bell icon to not miss updates and comment your opinions below . Thank you for watching. Now, listen to the interview. Do you know what that ratio is? 67, 68.
It went up to 120, that's crazy. What is the ratio that God has determined for gold and silver in the earth's layers? Nine or ten? Nine or ten to one. And the ratio calculated by man is 67 to one. So, one of those two ratios is correct, one is incorrect. I think the ratio calculated by man is wrong , we will see.
Will we reach the historic 16 to one ratio again? I don't know, but if we get to a ratio of 20, 25 to one, that means silver is performing three times better than gold. Historically speaking, higher real interest rates have a negative impact on the price of gold. But given today's debt situation and rising interest rates around the world, these rates are rising against the most leveraged system the world has ever seen .
By any measure you look at, the amount of debt has reached an all-time high . Whether looking at the debt-to-GDP ratio or examining the ability to pay off debt, the debts are in a very precarious position . These debts are the foundation of the global economy. As interest rates rise and bond prices fall , those debts are gradually weakening .
As bond prices fall , the amount of collateral available to borrow more is dwindling. So, I think this time high interest rates will crash the debt markets . People consider buying gold to protect themselves from inflation . The biggest or most important aspect of gold is that it does not go bankrupt.
In a system that is going bankrupt, as debts are being liquidated , the price of gold will rise because people will look for a safe haven where they wo n't risk bankruptcy. Going back to the 1980s, Volcker was raising interest rates to strengthen the dollar and suppress gold . At that time, America's debt-to-GDP ratio was only 30% .
Now it has reached 130%, and the situation is similar worldwide . And do n't forget that the dollar is the world's reserve currency. So the world reserve currency we have now is basically like a bankrupt company. That's why today's debt situation is so bad by any measure, it's extraordinary. It's higher than it's ever been in history, and now interest rates are also rising .
Interest rates are now back to 2007 levels . So all that quantitative easing (QE), zero interest rate policy ( ZIRP) is gone, and now we have a pile of debt and rising interest rates . The best example of this is that America, which paid 300 to 500 billion in interest annually for 30-40 years , now has to pay a debt burden of about 1.5 trillion dollars annually and it is increasing further.
And when the debt increased , it didn't increase because interest rates were falling or they were lowering rates while they were doing that. But now we have reached rock bottom, interest rates are rising , and it is time to pay the price for the mistakes we have made . That is, look at the situation in 1929 in the case of copper .
Go back to the Great Depression of the 1930s. Um, I think it was the Newmont company , which stayed in business. They are primarily copper producers . They went out and bought a small gold mine . That gold mine saved them. That is, when the real economy is in recession , how much demand is there for copper ?
As for uranium, it's a different story, as it's nuclear fuel. But again, all I ask is , why? Why unnecessary headaches? When the system around you is collapsing , why not have real money that will never expire ? The gold-silver ratio has become a major topic of discussion for precious metals investors, primarily at a time when rising debt and high interest rates are creating new risks in global financial markets.
This discussion states that if this ratio falls from highs towards historical ranges, silver could outperform gold . A move towards the 2025 gold-silver ratio would provide significant gains for silver, but a return to historical lows remains uncertain . From now on, global debt is the biggest concern.
The appeal of gold in this environment is not limited to protection against inflation. Supporters argue that physical gold has no issuer guarantee, so it is not dependent on the financial stability of another party. Historical examples of gold mining companies surviving economic crises show how precious metals behave differently than industrial commodities during severe recessions.
In my opinion, the argument about debt in this interview is strong, but it is an exaggeration to say that debt markets will definitely collapse if interest rates rise. Silver's excellent performance depends largely on that ratio decreasing . Investors should recognize the difference between an attractive situation and a guaranteed outcome.
Let's get into the interview. They will do everything they can. But, as you said , they keep postponing the issue . They have been postponing that issue for so long . That is, they have been trying to lower the price of gold since the London Gold Pool in the late 1960s , but it hasn't worked . Um, yes, they do everything they can, but they are helpless.
Because the only thing they can really do is print more money . They cannot let the M2 supply or the money supply decrease . Since they are designed like a Ponzi scheme , by definition they must continue to issue new debt . And if no new money comes in, all the old money will collapse . They don't get paid .
Yes, you are talking about the carry trade . In the carry trade, they borrowed in yen as interest rates were very low compared to other countries in the world . The problem right now is that the 30- year Japanese bond, which once fell to less than half a percent, is now at 4.2%, while the purchasing power of the yen has fallen dramatically.
The value of the yen has fallen sharply. So, both sides of the carry trade are collapsing . When a carry trade occurs, it should be understood that the borrowed money is invested in stocks, bonds, and real estate . If the carry trade were to come to an end , it would be a disaster for almost all markets, as money would flow out of the markets and go to repay those debts .
The latest debate shows that long-term monetary intervention is one of the most significant economic risks today. The potential end of the Japanese carry trade. This argument suggests that policymakers have repeatedly relied on increasing debt and liquidity to postpone deeper problems , but gold continues to defy attempts to reduce its monetary importance .
The Japanese carry trade became powerful because investors could borrow yen at low interest rates and invest that investment in high-yielding assets such as shares, bonds, and real estate . When Japanese yields rise or the yen strengthens or the cost of funds increases , it becomes difficult to maintain those positions .
So, if there are large- scale changes it could create selling pressure across multiple asset classes . This discussion argues that debt creation is essential to the current financial structure, as demand for assets such as gold is likely to increase when confidence in fiat currencies declines. In my opinion, the carry trade warning deserves serious attention, but describing the financial system as a veritable Ponzi scheme is more rhetorical than analytical .
A major change can increase volatility, but its extent and consequences depend on interest rates, currency movements, leverage, and liquidity . Like, share, and subscribe to Metal Bar for more updates and analysis on gold, silver, and global financial markets .
Comments 0