저자: PeterSchiff/AlasdairMacLeod—제목기준,소속은제목·설명에서확인불가시미상처리 · 외국인
요약 보기
금은 고금리·채권수익률 상승 상황에서도 강세 가능성이 있으며, 주식시장 폭락 시 금 수요가 늘어날 것이라는 주장. 달러는 대(對)유로·엔 환율이 안정적이어도 실질 구매력이 떨어지고 있어, 달러 약세가 가속화되면 금 상승이 빨라질 것이라 봄. 미국 부채 이자비용 증가와 재정적자 확대로 인플레 조세(인플레이션에 의한 부채 부담 전가)가 나타날 수 있다고 주장. 중앙은행의 금 매입 흐름이 지속될 것으로 전망. 금 대비 상품 가치가 장기적으로 크게 저평가되어 있다는 주장(약 400% 상승 여지). 한편 금 가격 변동성이 크고 중앙은행 매입이 상승을 보장하지 않는다는 점도 언급됨.
다듬은 글
If the market crashes, and everyone has gold too. Mhm. This is not the situation. Who will sell it? I think mines are more susceptible to this scenario than physical gold. But how exactly this will play out, you know, we'll see later. You see, there are two opposing forces at work here, because under the circumstances I described, gold will rise significantly in price, while the stock market will collapse.
I don't see what we're seeing now— Fed rate hikes and rising bond yields —as a bearish signal for gold. I see this as a bullish signal for gold. So I think gold should be bought, silver should be bought, and commodities in general will continue to increase in price. So it's a great time to buy gold, and especially silver.
So switch to Shift Gold and get in before the prices turn around. Alasdair MacLeod and Peter Schiff are renowned precious metals experts and economic commentators who focus on monetary policy, financial markets, and the long-term role of gold and silver. In this discussion, Schiff expresses an optimistic outlook for precious metals , arguing that rising interest rates and bond yields do not necessarily indicate weakness in gold.
Instead, growing financial instability, a potential stock market crash, and falling confidence in traditional assets could boost demand for physical gold and silver. In my opinion, this argument highlights an important point for investors. Gold can behave differently than stocks and bonds during periods of financial stress.
Physical precious metals can provide diversification, although their prices can also fall sharply during sell-offs when investors need cash. Rising yields could support gold if inflation remains high or real interest rates weaken, but higher real incomes and a strengthening US dollar could pose headwinds.
Silver also has additional volatility due to its industrial demand. Ultimately, gold and silver deserve careful consideration, not blind trust. so you don't miss new releases, and write in the comments what you think about it. Thank you for joining. Now listen to the interview. I mean, you don't need to create an alternative to the dollar.
The alternative already exists, and it is gold. And this is exactly what foreign central banks are striving for. They are getting rid of US dollars and buying gold. This has been going on for many years, and I think this trend will continue. And I expect this to accelerate when the dollar really starts to fall relative to its fiat counterparts, which hasn't happened yet.
The dollar, even though gold prices have gone up , even though they recently rolled back to 4,000, they've, you know, doubled since 2,000. But during that period, the dollar has held steady against the euro, the pound, and the yen. In fact, it even rose against the yen. It may have lost some ground against the Swiss franc , but overall the dollar held up against other fiat currencies.
It failed to hold onto gold, failed to hold onto goods and services , and lost purchasing power even when its relative exchange rate was stable. But I think that will change. I think you're going to start seeing the dollar depreciate against other currencies, and that's really going to accelerate the gold move.
Because if you own a bond , you are entitled to interest, and, you know, that will be the largest expense item in the budget. It is currently number two after Social Security, but next year it will overtake Social Security. So how is the government going to deal with these rapidly growing debts? Our annual budget deficit will grow from 2.5 trillion a year to three, four, five trillion.
Do you know where this money will come from? They will appear due to inflation. The Fed will create them. And so if you hold dollars, you will pay for it . So, if you don't want to pay, you're throwing away dollars . And then, you know, the bill concentrates on people who still have dollars. But then more and more people want to get rid of dollars to avoid the inflation tax .
And it becomes an increasing tax on those who still hold dollars. This is exactly what your statement is saying. But this is actually a completely wrong way of looking at things. You sell credit to buy real money. Now you should return to the loan when the cost of the loan stabilizes, if that happens at all.
But the problem is valuing gold in paper money, which is exactly what we are doing. I mean, any form of paper money, whether it's actual hard currency, whether it's paper contracts, forwards, or futures , is that the players in the paper market are constantly chasing these paper values in circles.
The result is huge distortions in the market. If you look at a basket of goods and compare their price in gold equivalent, it should have remained more or less constant over the centuries. I mean the basket, not the individual items. Mhm. Mhm. But my work shows that it is currently only 20% of what the price in gold should be.
In other words, paper currencies and paper markets have distorted value so much that you will see the value of commodities rise relative to gold, perhaps by about 400% if everything returns to normal long-term value. I'm not saying it will happen immediately, but you can see which way the wind is blowing if you want.
And if at the same time you see that the value of the currency will decrease in terms of its purchasing power. And also the reluctance to reward owners with sufficient interest to compensate for the risk, then you will see a much faster increase in commodity prices. In dollars, in euros, in yen, in sterling.
And that's where we are now. At the same time as it was happening. For starters, gold started rising even before OPEC raised its reference price. By then we knew they were going to raise the price. Gold was rising at the time, although it initially fell. So, in other words, we began to price in the consequences of the next price increase that OPEC was going to impose on world markets.
And by the time OPEC's decision was finally made, gold had returned to around $120. So, it has won back everything it lost. So , the bottom line is that most of the time you can live without worrying about the long-term future of your currency. And you know that if there is any obstacle in the way, then the various stakeholders, if I may say so, will come and smooth out all the problems.
Mhm. So, when we had the, um, uh, crisis of 2008-2009 , gold had a nice bull market before that. It jumped to about a thousand dollars. In this interview, precious metals market analyst Alasdair MacLeod examines why central banks may continue to diversify their reserves into gold, while questioning the long-term sustainability of rising government debt.
He argues that a stable exchange rate against other currencies does not necessarily mean that the US dollar retains its purchasing power. Gold, in turn, offers another way to measure wealth beyond the valuation of paper currencies. The discussion also explores how financial markets, commodity prices, and interest rates may affect the future relationship between gold and fiat currency.
In my opinion, the most important conclusion is that currency strength and purchasing power are not the same thing. The dollar can remain relatively stable against the euro or yen, while losing value against goods and services. Gold can help diversify against monetary uncertainty, but its price can fluctuate significantly, and central bank purchases do not guarantee continued growth.
Investors should examine debt trends, inflation, real interest rates, and market valuations before drawing conclusions about future prices. Understanding these forces is important when evaluating gold as an asset for long-term wealth preservation . Let's move on to the interview. So, you think so. But it does affect how the price relationship between the currency and gold, um, fluctuates.
And it can fluctuate very, very significantly. Mhm. As we have seen, as you point out. I mean, you know, in our dollar equivalent, gold used to reach, uh, 5.5 thousand, and now it's, um, somewhere around 4100 or 4200, or something like that. So, yeah, I mean, the fluctuations from these distortions are huge.
And also keep in mind that the current investment , um, industry, which in America alone, I think, operates with about $170 trillion in assets, doesn't understand this. They were 50, what? 55 years of, uh, fiat currency. They don't understand gold. They completely believed in, um, Keynesian macroeconomics because he essentially invented it based on his general theory back in 1936.
Um, they believed in the, um, mantra of the US Treasury that gold was no longer part of the monetary system. Now it's a dollar system. So, the problem is how to get out of this spiral? Mhm. Well, the answer now is, um, I mean, maybe there would be some kind of ghostly possibility if America hadn't, um, gone to war with Iran.
Mhm. But this has only exacerbated the problem, as it guarantees a significant drop in the purchasing power of the dollar in the coming months. So, you know, if we don't raise bond yields—whether through the market or as a deliberate policy by the Fed—the dollar will simply depreciate and it will be gone.
And if you look at the impossibility of financing the public debt at such rates or higher, then yes, they will grow. I think more than 10%. Gold and the US dollar have found themselves at the center of a debate over inflation, government borrowing, and the future of the global financial system. In this discussion, precious metals market analyst Alasdair MacLeod examines how decades of reliance on fiat currencies have shaped investors' views on gold and caused significant price swings.
He argues that rising public debt and the difficulty of financing the deficit could increase pressure on the purchasing power of the dollar. He also warns that if bond yields rise significantly, the cost of borrowing will increase, creating new challenges for policymakers and potentially increasing interest in gold as an alternative to money.
In my opinion, this discussion highlights the connection between fiscal sustainability , bond market confidence, and precious metals. If the cost of government borrowing increases faster than the economy can sustain, financial markets may overestimate the risks associated with government debt and currency stability.
Higher real interest rates could also put pressure on gold. While geopolitical events can have unpredictable effects on energy prices, inflation, and investor sentiment, share your thoughts in the comments, like, subscribe to Metal Bar, and turn on notifications so you don't miss any gold and silver market analytics.
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