저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 금리 상승과 부채 증가로 채권·주식 가격에 하락 압력이 커질 것이며, 외국 중앙은행의 금 매입 흐름을 근거로 금이 국채 대비 더 나은 안전자산이라고 주장. 주식 상승은 AI 자본지출 중심의 순환 구조에 의존하며 지속성에 의문을 제기. 단, 금도 변동성이 크다고 언급.
다듬은 글
At some point, there will be a clash, because the stakes will not stop rising. So at some point these higher rates will start to affect the markets, the economy. And so at some point you will see a significant drop in stock prices. You know, markets can ignore rising yields for a while. I believe that gold will have better and more stable growth.
Here's what I would buy if I were exiting tech stocks. Gold is a much better haven because it is a true hedge against Treasury bonds. Because if Treasury bonds collapse , where will you go? You know, gold is the last safe haven left in such conditions. In a serious market warning, economist and financial columnist Peter Schiff analyzes what could happen when rising bond yields finally collide with stock valuations and economic growth.
His argument is that markets can ignore high borrowing costs for a while, but eventually higher rates will create enough pressure to trigger a significant drop in asset prices . The discussion presents gold as a potential alternative when confidence in government bonds weakens. If Treasury bond prices fall sharply and yields continue to rise, traditional safe-haven assets could come under unusual pressure, making the search for a true haven all the more important.
In my opinion, the key difference is between short-term market hedging and long-term value preservation. Gold can also experience significant volatility , so calling it a last-ditch haven is more of a strong scenario than a certainty. However, this argument becomes convincing if rising yields are accompanied by persistent inflation, fiscal stress, and falling confidence in government debt.
not miss any updates , and write your thoughts in the comments. Thank you for watching. Now listen to the interview. Look what happened to the price of gold. It didn't jump from 2,000 to over 5,000 per ounce in a year for no reason. And it was n't American speculators or investors who bought it. These were foreign central banks.
Why do they do this? They refused the dollar. They are already doing it. Look at what is happening with the Bank of Japan now. China has been doing this for a long time. Russia started this after the sanctions, but, you know, countries are abandoning the US dollar, despite the fact that they could be getting 5% returns on their Treasury bonds.
They would rather own gold and not receive any income than Treasury bonds at 5%. This says a lot about how concerned they are about the US debt situation right now. So for me, this is the most logical explanation. It's just long overdue. This should have happened a long time ago. Lenders should have tied everything up years ago, but they didn't .
But, you know, finally they're concerned about it, and we're not doing anything about it . You know, I was pointing out that interestingly, I think maybe a year ago it was Hank Paulson, the former Treasury Secretary. He saw a crisis coming. Therefore, he publicly stated that the US should develop a contingency plan to cope with the drop in demand for Treasury bonds.
He did n't even try to say, "Hey, let's do something to prevent a crisis. Let's get things in order now, before a crisis occurs. Let's restore confidence in bond markets. Let's cut government spending. " Let's reduce the deficit." He knew it was a waste of time. So, in essence, he said, “Look, we’re going to have a crisis.
We better have a contingency plan . Because otherwise we will have a crisis, and we will not even have a plan." But they don't want to hear that the dollars they will be paid back with won't have much value. So instead of waiting for inflation to destroy the value of their bonds, they simply cash out now.
And that's what's putting all the downward pressure on bond prices and upward pressure on rates. The real bad news is not where the stakes are now, but where they are headed. Because they will become much taller. We already have the highest rates since 2002 as we speak . 5-year Treasury bonds are at 5.09 .
10-year-olds—5.33. And 30- year-olds—5.69. This is the highest yield today, but it won't be the highest tomorrow or, most likely, later today. But we will continue. People forget that we were in a “bull” bond market, which meant falling yields for 40 years. The yield on 10- year Treasury bonds fell from 16% in 1981 to less than 1% in 2021.
You know, over the same period of time, a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell from 18% to 2 and 5/8. Now this process has reversed. Mortgages are now above 7.5% and Treasury bonds are at 5.33%, but we are returning to these levels, and possibly even higher. But, you know, somewhere in between all this, we are facing a complete economic collapse.
Because we have too much debt today to afford to pay such interest on it. I talked about this in my podcast: we are in the fourth stage of the debt cycle. The first period was when we had low debt and low interest rates. And it was wonderful. We didn't borrow a lot of money, the government didn't have a budget deficit, people saved a lot , so rates were low and there was n't much debt.
Then in the 1970s and 1980s, the debt began to grow rapidly. As a result, debt still remained low in absolute terms, just not as low as before; but the bond market became concerned about the accumulation of debt, and so interest rates rose significantly. So, we had low debt and high interest rates. The high rates were acceptable because the total amount of debt on which they were charged was not that large.
The next stage actually began with the 2008 financial crisis . The debt grew even more, but then interest rates collapsed. Global markets could be in for a major shake-up as foreign central banks increasingly favor gold over U.S. Treasuries, despite the income offered by government bonds. This discussion argues that gold's dominance reflects growing concerns about the US debt, future inflation, and the long-term purchasing power of the dollar.
The bond market is facing another critical challenge as Treasury yields rise and borrowing costs rise significantly. After decades of falling interest rates, this reversal has created very different conditions for governments, businesses, and consumers with high debt. Also in the discussion, this period is presented as a new phase in the long-term debt cycle.
Huge debt combined with rising interest rates creates potential vulnerability, as even a modest increase in the cost of borrowing can lead to a significant increase in debt service costs . In my opinion, the most important conclusion is the changing relationship between debt and interest rates. The question is not simply whether Treasury yields rise , but whether the financial system can absorb significantly higher borrowing costs without triggering a recession, defaults, or new monetary policy intervention.
Let's move on to the interview. It's simply rising because investors are very optimistic about incomes and economic growth, despite a lot of negative news. And in fact, they point to GDP growth, and that may be true. But all of this is based on one sector. And all this is based on capital expenditures.
And you can. There are companies that make profits. But these large profits arise because the customers are other companies from the same group. And these big customers also own shares in the companies that supply everything they buy. So even though they spend money, it increases the price of the companies whose shares they own.
You know, it's just this big incestuous "virtuous " circle. A closed joke. Oh, yes, exactly. That's probably the best way to describe it. Um, but who knows, you know, how real this all is. But if you remove the capital costs of AI, the stock market continues to rise as investors remain confident in corporate profits and economic growth.
But this interview raises a critical question. How much of this strength actually comes from the broader economy? The argument is that overall GDP growth may depend heavily on one powerful engine—AI- related capital spending . Companies that provide infrastructure for artificial intelligence benefit from huge spending, while their largest customers are also investors in these same businesses.
This creates a circular flow of capital, where companies spend aggressively , suppliers report higher revenues, and stock prices rise, boosting confidence throughout the market. But is this sustainable economic growth, or simply an investment loop driven by extraordinary spending on AI? In my opinion, AI capital spending is certainly creating real demand and generating real business activity, but investors should be cautious about viewing this spending as evidence of broad economic strength.
If AI capex slows, the market may find that underlying growth is much weaker than overall indicators suggest. If you found this analysis valuable, please like this video, subscribe to Metal Bar, and turn on notifications for new market and economic reviews.
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