저자: 숨투자 · 한국인
요약 보기
마틴게일(두 배 베팅) 도박 전략의 한계(자본 한계, 확률 독립)를 짚은 뒤, 이를 주식에 적용한 '피라미드 매수법'을 소개. TSLL 전고점 $41.5 기준 10~12% 간격으로 하락 시 금액을 늘려 분할 매수하는 방식이며, 기업 내재가치 대비 과도한 하락은 제한적이라고 주장. 레버리지 ETF 대상 분할매수 전략을 제시.
다듬은 글
It must be very difficult for you to handle TS stocks. Today, I will talk about three buying methods that can save these stocks. There is a betting strategy originating from casinos called the Martingale method. Here is how the Martingale betting method works: Let's assume there is a game where you lose everything if you lose and receive double your payout if you win.
Here, the probability of winning or losing is 50% each. You double your bet amount every time you lose. For example, you bet 10,000 won, and if you lose, you bet 20,000 won. However, if you lose again, you bet double that amount, 40,000 won. If you win, you receive 80,000 won, which is double the 40,000 won.
Since you bet 10,000 won initially, 20,000 won the second, and 40,000 won the third, your initial bet becomes 70,000 won. The money you won is 80,000 won. Therefore, you earn 10,000 won from the bet where you lose twice and win the third. Once you win like this, you return your bet amount to 10,000 won.
If you bet in this way, wouldn't you win at least once, no matter how many times you lose in between? Ultimately, this is a betting method where you absolutely cannot lose. What thoughts come to mind when you hear about this betting method? Does it make your heart swell? Do you feel confident that you can go to Kangwon Land and make a fortune?
You should n't. There are two fatal flaws here. What is the problem? Even if you start with 10,000 won, if you lose nine times in a row, 2 squared is 120. For the tenth bet, you need 1,040,000 won. However, even if you win, the expected profit is merely 10,000 won. This is because the total amount of bets for all ten bets adds up to 1,030,000 won.
It makes no sense to bet 1,040,000 won just to earn a mere 10,000 won, or to bet 500 million won. But if you lose again here, it is an even bigger problem. You bet 1,240,000 won and lost. By the fourth bet, the amount of bets goes up to 2,480,000 won. Where is that money? It is not there. We don't have it.
We cannot bet with an infinite amount of capital. Therefore, I believe there is almost no chance of success with this betting method in practice. After all, you could keep losing— numbers, twenty times, and so on. The Martingale betting method can only succeed when you have infinite capital. But even if you have infinite capital...
Even if you do, betting tens of millions of won just to win 10,000 won is a very ironic situation. In casino games, the probabilities are all independent. What does this mean? For example, if you flip a coin and it lands face up, the probability of it landing face up again is 50%. If you flip the coin and face up five times in a row, you might think, "Face up five times!
Now it must be tails. Surely it won't be face up again?" No, the probability of face up is still 50%. Regardless of whether it landed heads or tails before, or how many times heads came up previously, the probability of face up next is 50%. This is the problem. Why is this a problem? As I mentioned earlier, even if you lose a number of times in a row, you could still lose on the 11th time.
Even if you lose 11 times in a row, the probability of winning on the 12th time is still 50%. That is the problem. You can lose consecutively, whether it's a number of times or any number of times. That is why, in fact, I also tried the Martingale system at Kangwon Land and thought, " What on earth is this?" Anyway, to summarize, the Martingale betting method has two major problems.
The first is limited capital. The second point is the independence of probability. Given such serious issues, can this be applied to stock investing? Yes, it can. In fact, these two drawbacks are not a significant problem in stocks. The investment method applying the Martingale strategy works like this.
I will call this the "Pyramid Buying Method." It means that, like a pyramid, the initial investment amount is small, and you continuously increase the amount. First, write down the previous high of the leveraged product you are investing in. In the case of TSL, the previous high is $41.5. So, write $41.5 here.
Then, write down here how many percent you will drop for a purchase. For example, if I decide to buy every time TSL drops by 10%, I write down 10. The reason for writing down the previous high here is this: you must keep in mind that even with double leverage on an individual stock, or even triple leverage on a sector like SOC, it can fall by -95% or more.
If $41.5 drops by 95%, multiplying 41.5 by 0.05 gives you $2.1. You need to buy even below that level. However, as you can see, it is higher than $2.1. So, buy. Let's set the interval to 12. Then, the last purchase price will be below $2.1. From now on, you write down at what dollar you will start buying.
If you decide to start buying at $8, write 8 in the first step. If you decide to buy 3 million won worth of shares, write 3 million. And if you decide to increase the amount by 500,000 won increments, you set it up like this. The total investment amount is 98 million won. If the TSL drops to $1.7, my loss rate is -51%, resulting in a loss of approximately 50 million won.
The reason for increasing the purchase amount is as follows. If you look now, the average purchase price has dropped by about $2.5, and here it has dropped by $2.1. You can see that every time you buy like this, the price drops significantly in increments of two dollars. Of course, as you go further down, the effect of the average purchase price drop diminishes a bit—dropping by $0.5, then dropping by $0.5.
Now, you just need to buy according to this table. Returning to the Martingale investment method, the disadvantage of the Martingale method is... It was a limitation of capital. However, that drawback is no longer an issue because stocks cannot fall indefinitely. While I cannot guarantee it, stocks like Tesla, in particular, will not reach $0.
Therefore, there is no need to buy indefinitely. If you have established a plan to buy at a price below -95%, your total investment becomes 95 million won. And with the final purchase price, you can earn 100%, 200%, or even more. The Martingale strategy was like betting tens of millions of won just to earn 10,000 won.
I will explain the second drawback of the Martingale strategy in the next purchase section. Do you remember the second problem with the Martingale betting method? Yes, it is the independence of probability. In a casino, even if you lose repeatedly in a row, the probability of losing again in a new game never decreases.
However, stocks are not like that. This is precisely because of intrinsic value. Intrinsic value is calculated based on a company's profitability, growth potential, cash flow, and asset value. As the stock price falls significantly, it continues to fall below the company's intrinsic value. For example, if Tesla's intrinsic value is $200, it would not be strange at all for the stock price to fall from $488, which was in the overvalued zone.
No, of course. Even if Tesla's intrinsic value is $200, the stock price could fall to $200, then $150, and so on. Once a stock price drops due to negative news, it can trade below its intrinsic value. However, a stock with an intrinsic value of $200 will not drop to $100, $50, or $20. People are gripped by fear, believing that the stock price will fall even further as it drops; however, in reality, the lower the price falls, the lower the probability of it falling further actually becomes.
The stock price can trade at a price lower than its intrinsic value. Amidst internal and external negative factors, the stock price may be formed at half of its intrinsic value. However, a stock as well-known as Tesla—and as the saying goes—will not drop below its intrinsic value in just one or ten minutes.
Once a sentiment is formed that it has become sufficiently cheap relative to its intrinsic value, it can rise significantly as if nothing happened. Therefore, you might wonder if you really need to plan to buy even below the dollar level. If the correct path is that TSL will only fall to $5 at most, then planning the amount in a diamond shape...
So, regarding the pyramid buying method, I will write down the data on the holdings as follows: the price per pyeong is 20, and regarding the purchase amount, I started with 8 dollars and 2 million won, but I will start with 4 million won, and then 5 million won, and so on, significantly increasing the amount.
I expect it to peak around 4.2 dollars, and from there, I will reduce the amount a bit. Since the amount is much higher than before, I will widen the range of the descent. Hmm, the purchase amount is similar to before, and as I see it now, I see the bottom as 4.2 dollars, so I buy the most around that low point.
I buy relatively less in zones where I consider it highly unlikely, even though there is a possibility. I thought, "There is n't a zero chance TSL will fall below 5 dollars, so I will plan to buy at that price as well, but it seems difficult for it to fall below 5 dollars in this market. I need to buy intensively around the 5-dollar mark." The last buying method is to vary the buying zones, which is also the method I use for TQQQ.
Today's video is getting too long, so... I will cover that part in the next video. I will post the materials I covered today in the pinned comment, so please feel free to download and use them as much as you like. However, please make sure to subscribe, like, and turn on notifications when you download them.
That is all for today's video. I wish you all successful investments. Thank you m
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