저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 6월 근원 CPI가 0.25% 미만이면 금리인하 기대가 커져 소형주·산업재·금융·낙후 FANG 등으로 순환매가 일어날 것이라 주장. S&P500은 7일 연속 상승, RSI 약 82로 과매수지만 CNN 공포탐욕지수가 아직 극단적 탐욕은 아니며 기관은 여전히 회의적이라고 봄. 7월 긍정적 흐름을 기본 시나리오로 제시. 발언 중 Bitcoin·AI·비만약·금융주를 선호 자산으로 언급. 영상 진행자는 높은 위험과 헤지 필요성을 강조.
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just when I thought you know Tom Lee maybe getting a little defensive thinking a correction could be coming because yes sometimes from now and again Tom Le does get a little defensive and he calls for Corrections and it seems like at this point the markets are not going to go down until Tom Lee flips and starts to call for some kind of Correction at least that is what Tom Lee did back on January 29th he said investors should brace for markets to hit quote an air pocket after the recent rally he was calling for roughly about a 7% decline that did end up happening just a little while later after he said that and markets did come down about 5% but now what Tom Lee said on CNBC today just has me totally second guessing everything given this rally that we have seen I'm shocked with what Tom Lee just said and I think you're probably going to be as well it's Tom Lee he's joining us now fun Strat we get critical consumer inflation data tomorrow I think that last point was was important from data Trek Tom which is they kind of made the implication that you know from the low to the high of these runs that we've had since 19990 75% was about what we got before it topped out I think you would you would disagree or or agree this time is different well uh I don't know if Peaks and markets are measured by the percentage gains off the lows um I've we've studied that extensively I mean even going back to 1929 never no draw down or bull market bottom has ever been measured by how much it's risen it's usually by how much of a prior move is retraced I don't want to be too complicated but uh the reason I might disagree that we're topping is there's no signs of euphoria you know and in the client meetings I've done and I've done several this week and the zooms that I do and I've done countless zooms we find institutional investors are still pretty skeptical of this Market move because they they view it as concentrated or premature because the FED is still uh not cutting or they think inflation is still a problem so I think many people cite reasons to be sidelined and actually skeptical so to me that's not what you usually see at the top and Tom Lee just shared this clip on his X account and says this skepticism about inflation easing and towards market gains means there's room for positive surprise which that this sounds crazy what Tom Le is saying that there is not that much uh you know positivity out there that there can still be room for positive surprises given the S&P is now up 7 days in a row and if we're Green tomorrow that's going to be eight Trading days in a row that's a very strong uh stretch for markets during any year even when you look at some of the technicals on the S&P 500 like the Ballinger bands one of my favorites of all and basically this is the 20-day moving average in the middle you can see this top end Ballinger band this top band right here that's kind of in this this tannish color this is at 5 5930 the S&P is at deviations above your 20day moving average so the S&P is about a half of 1% little bit less above or half of 1% higher than two standard deviations above the 20-day moving average that is just insane by any metric of of you know Market rally typically when you get to the top end of this Ballinger band you normally come back down to this 20-day moving average you can see overtime stocks tend to follow the 20-day moving average pretty well unless you're just in a straight up kind of Market which that's kind of what we've been witnessing I think the RSI is a little crazier currently at 81.9 s on the S&P and the last time we were this overbought on the RSI you have to go back to 28 to find an instance where you were this overbought which is kind of crazy but you got to give it to Tom Lee because he is correct here if you look at technicals price action if you look at so many different indicators markets are stretched and you would think hey we need to see a correction here well if you look at CNN's fear and greed indicator you have been neutral or in fear during this rally you have not been in greed or extreme greed until today you are now in greed territory at 58 yesterday you were neutral at 52 so yes today you did see a big jump in the CNN fear and greed index but you're nowhere close to extreme greed or even in the high greed where you normally start to see a pullback in markets and if you missed it fun Strat and Tom Lee said earlier today if June core CPI is below 0.25% that likely triggers rotations in small caps Industrials financials and lagger fangs our base case remains that July is a positive month for stocks supported by softening inflation picture and by the still lingering skepticism towards stocks and as I shared in the last video there's only two major banks that have estimates 0.25% or higher that is deutche Bank coming in right at 0.25% and Morgan Stanley that is coming in at 0.27% that's why some people even said today that the CP CPI was probably leaked and they're probably correct big money likely already knows what CPI is going to be and that's a good reason why the S&P was probably up 1% nonetheless I do think if you are bullish right now you have to be betting on the markets broadening out from here because they should already be broadening out think about it like this if the consensus for investors is there's going to be a soft Landing which that is consensus by far there's a 0% chance recession priced into the S&P or the NASDAQ and you are 2 months away from the first expected fed cut last I knew where I come from markets price things in ahead of time two months it's not that long so markets should be pricing in the first cut by the FED right now not literally pricing it to the FED funds rate monitor tool or the bond market but should be pricing it into stocks that will benefit that is small caps that is interest rate sensitive stock those should be the stocks that are already starting to outperform that is not happening theoretically if CPI does come in lower than expected tomorrow and we are setting up for that first cut in September you should definitely start to see the markets broaden out quite a bit here I would actually be very concerned if coming tomorrow morning here in really just the next couple of hours we get a better than expected CPI report and it's your mag 7 stocks that are continuing to lead the markets Tire I think that would be one of the biggest red flags that you could possibly get that would more or less confirm that the first cut by the FED is probably probably going to be a sell everything kind of event along the lines of historical precedence any other time the FED has cut rates in the past besides you know in 1995 the only real soft Landing we ever got markets typically fall about 23% over the course of about 200 days following the first fed cut because normally the FED is cutting into weakness they're cutting into a rising unemployment rate they're they're cutting into overall economic instability or growing weakness and that's never seen as good for stocks perhaps this time could be different that is always a possibility and I think tomorrow will be big in confirming whether you want to stick around this Market or potentially head for the exit because if we get a better than expected CPI report and it's only your mag 7 stocks that are outperforming that is insanely problematic Tom Lee said earlier today as well or at least this article was written about um what Tom Lee said it says why June CPI is going to be a big moment for stock market Bulls according to fund strats Tom Lee this was written by market Insider that came out just today Lee expects a soft June CPI report will push the Fed to cut rates more than two times this year which is definitely not the consensus view on Wall Street and then you got to start asking the question is more than two cuts more than you know even one cut going to be positive for stocks if the fed's cutting three times that better be because inflation comes in really really low and I think we'll know more when we know more when we get more information Tomley goes on to say it's going to be a week of Rec and I mean a reckoning of how people view the view inflation and the state of the economy told clients in a video this week that he expects the June CPI report will show that inflation is falling like a rock and that should lead to a higher stock market and increased probabilities of more than two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year and there is only three fed meetings left in this year assuming the FED does not cut rates in July there's September there's November and December if we start to price in three Cuts then you're going to be starting to price in a cut at every fed meeting after this meeting in July which again I don't know if that's going to be seen as a positive for markets Lee highlighted that recent conversation with conversations with fund strats client-based mostly fall into three categories investors who expect a second wave of of inflation investors who expect the FED to cut rates because of a weakening economy and not because of tamed inflation and investors who see a growing risk of a hard Landing in the economy Tom Lee says but there's a fourth view which is our view and not a widely held view but that inflation is falling like a rock and so fed cuts are good and that's positive for stocks Tom Lee goes on to say quote I think there's a good chance that if the data plays out the way we think it is this week there's more people moving into this Camp he added he goes on to say the monthly CPI reports have sparked weeklong stock market rallies in December April and May when inflation showed signs of cooling faster than Economist estimates going on to say anything below 0.25% is a positive arguing that at 0.20 to 0.25% would be a lower CPI rating over the past year apart from May's 0.16% rating quote it would just affirm that inflation is falling Like a Rock Lee said I think the number of expected Cuts will exceed two quote if June CPI comes in off I think this number of expected rate Cuts goes higher and that's good for stocks so we want to stay in the market and stick with what's working what's working according to Lee are stocks related to AI weight loss drugs the financial sector Bitcoin and proxies like exchanges Lee is also bullish on small cap stocks which have badly lagged the broader stock market rally so far this year know on Tuesday JP Morgan also said the most likely scenario at a 35% probability is for inflation to see a month of month increase of between 0.15 to 0.20% which would likely Drive the stock market Higher by a half% to 1% this article goes on to say quote we have had multiple former fed Governors suggest that September is appropriate for a cut JP Morgan's Andrew Tyler said with this in mind we remain tactically bullish but with slightly less conviction so let me know what you guys think Down Below in the comment section how higher Market's going to go do you think we're going to have a correction anytime soon or do we just broaden out here and and things are fine and dandy just great from here I do think there is a lot more risk associated with this economy with the FED with the markets than what the markets are actually pricing in I think you know to to price in a booming economy for the next 12 to 36 months and booming earnings right the whole shebang you have to be betting on some statistic iCal anomalies actually coming true like for an example when full-time employment is negative year over year any time in American history that has always caused a recession markets they're not even giving anything a a wink of a you know doubt right they're not pricing in anything into this Market I do think earnings is probably the biggest near-term concern for me I think earnings are going to come in good but I don't think it's going to be enough to impress investors and push valuations materially higher could that help the rotation effort of course but still big tech let's assume they sell off on earnings that would still have a net negative drag on the S&P and the NASDAQ but at this point that would be healthy if if you see big Tech come down to reality quite a bit again that's just my personal opinion I do think you should stay fully invested in this market obviously I will never say to sell stocks you never want to bet against the US long-term you always want to be exposed to this Market history would suggest that is the right move but buying a put here buying a put there hedging or at least waiting to maybe see when the downside comes and then start hedging make some sense especially when you know put premiums are at multi-decade lows uh like they are right now like it is cheaper to hedge your portfolio now at alltime highs when the RSI is at almost 82 and there's signs of the economy slowing down heading in in season that it has been in any other time in in the last 10 plus years I I kind of find that crazy and I think on a risk reward basis it makes sense to hedge the portfolio but what do I know let me know what you guys think you guys have a fantastic rest of your day and I will see you in the next one
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