저자: Dave · 외국인
요약 보기
QQQ에서 외가격 풋 매도로 월 1% 옵션 프리미엄 수익을 노리는 전략을 설명. 이번 주 빅테크 실적발표로 변동성 확대 예상, 최근 급락 후 추가 하락 가능성 언급. 손실이 난 SPY·QQQ 포지션은 1~2주 기다릴 수 있다고 함. 전략 자체는 시장 방향보다 기초자산 관리를 강조.
다듬은 글
Welcome to the channel. My name is Dave, and today we're going to talk about QQQ and selling options on this ETF for income. I have previously made a few videos about SPY and the model I like to follow. So I'll leave links to them above and below. This could be good material for review. I've also talked on this channel about QYLD, which is essentially selling covered call options " at-the-money" on QQQ.
This is another video that you can watch via the links above and below as a reference, because we are entering crazy times right now, are n't we? Thursday and Friday were real chaos in the markets. Everything is being adjusted. Earnings reports are coming out this week . We have rising interest rates and much more.
So is this a good time for such actions? Well, we will try to answer this question. I have a few examples and we will discuss all of them in detail. So, if that's what you're looking for, please stay with us. Uh-huh. Before we get straight to the Qs, let's talk about this week's earnings, since those are the main assets in the Qs, pretty much most of them, right?
We're talking about Coca-Cola, Alphabet, Microsoft, Visa, UPS, Boeing, Meta, PayPal, Qualcomm, Amazon—they're all reporting this week. So this will have a huge impact on Qs . Just be careful. This happens once a quarter. When these reports come out, they are all compressed into a few weeks. This will add significant volatility to Qs.
Many people like to trade options on Qs. This is a very liquid ETF. It is easy to trade these options. The spreads between the buying and selling price (bid/ask) will be quite narrow. A large number of expiration dates. Therefore, people generally prefer to trade options on Qs rather than similar products like VOO.
People actively come here and trade options. If we look at the top 10 assets right now, you'll see Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, Nvidia, Google, Facebook , Broadcom, and Costco. This is the top ten. Obviously, they will have the greatest impact. And, as we said, most of them are reporting earnings this week.
This can make a big difference, adding a lot of volatility and premium to your Qs options trades. If you're not at all familiar with Invesco's QQQ, it's an ETF, a basket of stocks, of about a hundred. And here you can see the breakdown by sectors and industries. So you'll have some diversification, but it's very focused on the technology sector and a few other stocks in QQQ, unlike SPY, which gives you access to the entire S&P 500 index.
It's just the Nasdaq 100. So when we talk about SPY and QQQ and start thinking about volatility, in terms of sector allocation, you'll get a little bit of IT, services, media, beverages. You'll have a little bit of utilities in the sector and so on, but that's not at all what you'll see when you're talking about SPY.
In SPY, you will be much more exposed to things like utilities, oil, healthcare, and REITs, which performed very well in the first quarter. So this will provide it with greater stability and less volatility. You won't find that kind of variety in QQQ. But overall, the Nasdaq-100 will give you a solid group of stocks.
These are the 100 stocks you should be proud to have in your portfolio . So, it's kind of a choice, but yes, the volatility here will be noticeable, and you'll see ups and downs much more often in the "bunches" than in the SPY. Now, if we look at the annual chart, you'll see, right? We are now back to the 52- week low, especially after Thursday and Friday of this week.
But if we go back two years, you will still see that he has shown very good results over the last few years. So keep that in mind before you jump in and say, "Oh my god, we're at a 52- week low." "It definitely won't fall any lower." Of course, it can. And this can be reflected very quickly. A couple more Thursdays and Fridays like we just had, and boom—you'll suddenly see the number 280 and wonder why you even did it.
So don't think we've hit rock bottom yet. I believe we can fall much lower. So, my plan for QQQ is to sell an out-of-the-money put option for about 30 days to make a 1% profit. And over the course of a year, if I can do this 12 times, I will get 12% profit. This meets my goal, okay? So, if everything goes well every time, the option just expires and I'm happy.
But, of course, we have serious corrections, and then they can be presented to you for execution. So my second step, I would say, is to avoid execution if possible. So if I can close the position and get most of the premium, that's great. This means that if the price drops, maybe even to the strike price or a little lower, and I can close it before expiration and move to a lower strike price—well, that's good for me too, because I don't want to own the asset.
I want to treat this like a hot potato. Like, you're not going to put this on me. I'm going to return this straight to you. But in the case of execution, where you say, " Okay, the price fell so fast and so much that I lost on the option, so I'll let it be presented to me," especially if I think the market conditions are not bad.
So, the underlying asset remains the main component, but to walk through the steps, let's assume it has already been presented to me for execution. Now I'll turn around and sell the covered call option at the original strike price I was quoted, or a little higher if I can make a little more money—great.
Um, but I want to try to manage it as best as I can to still get 1% per month. Now, if it continues to fall, which it does sometimes , then I will sell the covered call option out of the money again to get about 1% and manage that position. And what do I mean by managing this position? Well, that's a pretty tricky part.
Um, stock markets are prone to crashes, we call it a crash, and then they tend to recover over time. So if you're in a slump like this, and let's say your initial strike price was, I don't know, let's say 300. It's put up for exercise, and it keeps going down to 280, 270. Well, now I'm going to sell a covered call option at, let's say 280, to get that 1%.
And when he starts to recover, I'll have to try to manage that position, but I really don't want to give up my starting base. I want to try to make as much profit as possible by selling covered call options to generate maximum income. So, this is a strategy that has worked well for me in the past, but it's not always going to be successful because sometimes, you know, things happen.
QQQ will go up sharply . You'll go through a reporting week, for example, and everything will show good profits, and Qs will skyrocket. So you need to manage this by keeping your base intact as much as you can. So, again, just for example, let's say the price is 270, you sell a call at 280 , and it quickly goes up to 280.
I might even reduce the expiration from 4 weeks to 3 weeks, things like that. So I still want to target that 1%, but if it starts to get close, I'll try to close it again and manage it the best I can to preserve as much revenue and my base as possible. This is the goal. And I explained this strategy again in that SPY video, a little more and in more detail.
So you can always come back to it if you want to review it. This is a great week for this QQQ vs SPY comparison because Thursday and Friday were a real disaster. So that's a great way to illustrate this because I actually made a few trades on Monday with QQQ and SPY. What I'm going to do now is show a comparison of where they are now, and you can laugh at me a little bit.
But, uh, it was n't the best week for these two deals. I'm currently showing a calculator on this channel, and some people have been asking about it. This is a very simple table. You can download it. I'll post it below. Um, if you want to use it as a reference. But understand, it's very basic. It is simply to illustrate these ideas on this channel.
So there's a lot to improve, if you really want me to be able to brag about it, you need to work on it a little . But now this framework, which is there, will be posted at the link below. Here are two deals I made this week. One for SPY and the other for QQQ . I did both on Monday for one contract expiring on May 18th and you see the price here.
So, we're going to focus on that side, because that's QQQ, and that's what this video is about. And first, I'll just point out some of the differences when comparing it to SPY. But, yes, you see, the strike price here is 308. So that's almost 8 and a half percent that it has to fall from this price to this for it to be sold to me.
That's the idea. This is a percentage of the strike price. That's what I mean. Whereas here, that's probably one of the biggest differences, right? It should fall by only 4.5 percent. Again , much more volatility, much more stability from all the other S&P 500 stocks that make up SPY. So you see the premium received and you see the provision required and also what if I have to buy this, if it is not assigned, how much will I spend to buy these 100 shares.
30 days is the time frame I'm going to keep this for. Same here. And you will see that the annual return is about 13% -13.05%. So, very close. Of course? And then below, this is how I rated it. Again , this is just for illustration. So if the stock is above the strike price, right? Essentially, the option expires and I keep all $333.
Which is a little over 1% and about 13% on an annualized basis. So, great if that happens, perfect. Now, the next thing that can happen is that the stock price at expiration reaches a certain value. So here you can go in and experiment with it a little bit if you want. So , of course, if it ends here at 324, well, that's above the strike price.
So I will still get the full amount . And that's actually the price as of this weekend now. And this is the price here for SPY as of now . So, you see that she has changed a lot. 12 points is quite significant for QQQ. And the same here. So, here's what it means. And you can easily change that. If it drops to 300, the idea is, well, you're going to lose $800 on the stock between that 308 and 300.
And that means, I mean, it doesn't really matter, except that yes, you're going to lose money. You will receive this premium, so your net cost is 466.69—that's probably what I would focus on. And then it also calculates your break-even point. So, as long as the price stays above 304.67, I will still have some profit, right?
So, if I put in a modest 305, let's see if it eventually stops there. Well, then we have $33.31, meaning as soon as it is assigned, I will immediately sell it for this 305, and then I would still make $33.31. And that's the main point of what I'm talking about when I talk about managing positions, etc., or closing them out if the price is close to that level.
I would probably close this if we were already very close to the expiration date, right? And it's at, well, I don't know, let's say, for example, 307. That means I would lose $100 on the difference. But I would still make $233, which is about 9.22% , so I would close this trade. Why should I own this?
And then I would turn around and sell, maybe the strike price is 295, right? For your next deal. Because that way I can continue to make money. I don't have to own this, and hopefully I can find some kind of market bottom when I feel comfortable owning this asset. Because in reality, when we talk about options, it always comes down to the underlying asset.
This is easy to say when it comes to stocks, but with ETFs like SPY and QQQ, it's much more complicated because we're talking about the entire market. So, you need to think about the market in a broad sense. What do I think about this in the future? How do I feel about interest rates? How do I feel about this in the long term before allowing this asset to be assigned to me when we look at it from an income perspective?
So between the two, whether you like SPY or QQQ, as far as volatility goes, I think people tend to look at that and think, "Oh, wow, I can afford a lot more volatility. I love volatility. That means higher premiums." For example, if I want to sell "out of the money", I will receive a higher premium.
That's absolutely true, but I think, you know, personally I'm happy trading options on stocks like Verizon. Almost the easiest action to talk about, right? It hardly moves, and the bonuses aren't the best. But I don't like to focus on volatility. I like to focus on the underlying asset. So keep that in mind when you start thinking about these things.
When you think about SPY and QQQ, which comes to mind? The overall market or the Nasdaq 100? You have roughly the same view. But when you think about an individual stock, it is the underlying asset that remains the main factor in your success in options trading. Do you like her? Do you want to own it in the long term?
Do you think this is a good price to sell put now to get this income? And if the shares do transfer to you, will you be happy to own them? We can go into Fidelity right now and discuss these two deals. So, as of now, you can see that it doesn't look the best, because May 18 is not yet, it's only been a week since the sale, and we've had a few bad days.
And now there's the reporting from all these tech giants this week, which could turn things around even more . So, looking at my cost basis, I made $450 on this SPY put with a strike of 418 on May 18, 2022. And it has already fallen to $424 . About. So, just looking at the deal, I got 450. If I wanted to get out of that position, it would cost me $870 and I would lose about 420.
So, I could do that. I could go out, lick my wounds, and try again another time. QQQ, similar situation, right? Q shares are currently worth about $325 a share. The price has dropped significantly since I sold it. And when I sold it, I made $333. And now it's worth about 602 if I want to close the position.
This means I lost about $270. Then again , I could go out and just say, "Hey, I'll buy it again for cheaper to make back the money I lost." Maybe this is the way out. What would you do? So, when I sell puts and calls on SPY and QQQ, I do it for income. I'm trying to generate extra income this way. And if these assets are transferred to me, I will try to generate income from them again.
That's the whole idea. Now, should I get out of this position? Oh my god, I'd rather wait a week, right? Or two. It is not always a good idea to trade during earnings reports, especially in a market like this. But I have a small hope that Google and some other companies will show good earnings this week.
So we'll see how this affects the market, and I'll keep you posted on how these deals progress. So, this is the state of affairs. Let's see what happens next. As I mentioned, the calculator you just saw will be below. Again, this is just a basic calculator, but you are free to use it , learn from it, and point out any errors to me.
Now, something that other people mentioned, and that was a great point. Thanks for pointing out that Series I bonds will hit almost 9% for the first time. You can purchase them at treasurydirect.gov. These are government bonds. Their yield is now over 7%. And this offer ends, it seems, at the end of the month, but you can invest up to $10,000 per social security number.
And this is a good profit that is safe. So this is something you should pay attention to. And if I get the chance, I'll make a video about all of this, about the process and how to do it step by step. If I have enough time, but we'll see how it all works out. Now, if you have any questions about what we talked about today, please ask them below. Thank you very much for watching. Good evening. Take care of yourself. Oh.
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