저자: Dave—주출연자가아닌리뷰어;분석대상GRNYETF의설계자TomLee는발언자아님 · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee·Fundstrat의 액티브 ETF GRNY를 소개하며 1년간 약 20% 상승한 성과를 긍정 평가. 운용보수 0.75%로 S&P500 대비 비싸지만 톱다운 테마 + 바텀업 종목선정, 분기 리밸런싱 구조를 설명. 비트코인 관련 Tom Lee의 과거 예측은 빗나갔다고 언급. 비교 대상 QQQ(+20.5%), VGT(+20.3%), SCHG, AOTG, QDVO 대비 성과를 점검하며 액티브 운용의 보수 대비 가치에 의문을 제기하되 초기 성과는 유망하다고 평가.
다듬은 글
Hi guys, welcome back to the channel. My name is Dave and today I want to talk about GRNY, the Granny Shots ETF from Funstrat and CIO Mr. Tom Lee. Now you've probably seen Tom around positive guy. A lot of people look at him and say, "Oh, that's a permable." Like it's some sort of insult, but I would say it's he's more perma, right?
He's been correct more often than he's been wrong, especially since we've been in this bull market. Now, this ETF's just over a year old. It's performed pretty darn well. So today I want to explore this ETF and talk about active versus passive management and is that little bit of extra expense to uh invest with a guy like Tom worth it?
Let's take a look. If that is what you're looking for, please stick around. So GRNY is the Funstrap Granny Shots US large cap ETF. And this is the brainchild of Mr. Tom Lee who is the CIO over there at Fundstrat. And Tom's on TV all the time. He's willing to come on and give his market predictions, which I appreciate.
And in many instances, he's been quite accurate. Now, one area where he's been incorrect this past year has been with cryptocurrencies. So, uh, he's made lofty predictions for things like Ethereum and Bitcoin, which have not been accurate. So, I'm not here to tell you that he's always right, but I would say that he's on my short list of people to bet with.
If you said you're going to give some money to, I Tom would be on my short list. I think he's uh done a great job this past year. And you can see that with this ETF. It's up nearly 20% over the last 12 months. So GRNY, it's closing in on about $4 billion of AUM. It has an expense ratio of 75%. So 75 bucks for every $10,000 you invest.
And this is what you're paying for if you want a name like Tom on that, right? You're going to have a little bit higher expense ratio. It's one of the impacts that we have when we have active manager. Uh now inception for this inception date was 116 of 24. course, it's only about 13 months old, so relatively new and obviously a really popular ETF right out of the gate with a lot of people that want to bet with Tom.
And we'll take a look at the stock selection process in a minute. But I'll tell you right now that if you're looking for a valueoriented ETF, this isn't really the product for you. This is going to approach it quite differently. You scroll down here, you're going to see this article, for example, that says at 65 times PE, this ETF looks like a ticking time bomb.
So you are stepping out a little bit on the risk curve, a little bit more risk, a little bit more reward hopefully for taking on that risk uh as long as you plan on holding this for a long period of time. So again, a thematic approach they've got with GRNY that we'll dive into here in a second. If you look at the holdings, uh, just to peruse the top 10 really quickly over here on Seeking Alpha, you'll see that it's a lot of names that you know and trust, maybe a few that you never heard of, like Alphabet, Broadcom, Meta, Monster, Apple, GE, Verova, PNC, TJX, Quanta, Caterpillar, and only 42 holdings is what they show here on Seeking Alpha.
I think they said it ranges between around 30 and 40. This is rebalanced on a quarterly basis, so that will take some of the sting out of it. But uh yeah, uh a fund that's balanced but will be a little bit uh further out on the risk curve. Now, you can have all this at your fingertips yourself, too.
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So, now let's take a look at GRNY over here at the Funstrat website and get a better understanding of how they do their stock selection with their strategy. First of all, what's a granny shot? It's the underhand basketball shot. Simple enough. That's where they got it from. It's not from doing uh tequila shots or popping grandma on the nose.
It's just shooting a basketball underhand. So, anyway, let's take a look at the strategy and get a better understanding about how we get stocks. Why are we spending 75 basis points on this when we can get a index fund for a lot less? And it boils down to their thematic approach to picking stocks. So in this case, you kind of spell it out here at the top, but it's a top- down approach, which simply means they're going to look at the overall market really broad and look at the overall economy and all the conditions, market conditions, and then narrowing that down to specific sectors and individual stocks so they can find out what they should pick for this.
So in this case, they're trying to identify market trends and these themes. So we've got style, tilt, seasonality, PMI, recovery. so forth and so on. And the more check marks you get, the more likely you're going to end up in this particular ETF. And if you want more information, again, check out the perspectus.
They also have some nicely uh they've got it spelled out nicely down here below. So, they got shorter term themes and longer term themes, so you can read into those as well, but I don't want to bore you with it too much. So, that is the top down approach. And then they have the bottom up stock selection process.
So eventually they're going to narrow it down in this case to find large cap US companies primarily that link up with at least two of these different themes to put into this particular ETF and they aim for around 30 to 35 equally weighted stocks. And we can quickly look at all the holdings for GRNY over here at the Fundstrap Capital website.
We're going to see the holdings. So, if we look at the top, because this is rebalanced on a quarterly basis, we're going to see what's performed the best. And that's been Alphabet, Meta, Broadcom, GE, and Tesla all the way up to about 2.9% down around 2.7% of the total fund. As we scroll down again, because it's rebalanced, we're going to see what's performed maybe not as well or what has been a real dog.
So, if we get all the way down to the bottom, we're going to see the true dogs. The ultimate dog in this case has been Micro Strategy, right? Bitcoin has performed very poorly in November. In the first part of December, it's dropped off considerably and that's hit Micro Strategy a lot. So, it's down around 2%.
Followed by AMZ, Netflix, SoFi, Eaton, and GE Aerospace. So, uh come over here, check it out. You can see all the holdings for yourself. So, now let's compare the performance of GRNY in this active strategy versus some passive strategies. And one that pops to mind is SCHD. that comes from Schwab and that's the large cap growth stock market index ETF.
We've talked about it before, but it's a lowcost index ETF. So, let's see how performance holds up against that, maybe a few others. But first, a quick word from today's sponsor, which is public.com about direct indexing. And this is your opportunity because I'm sure a few of you are out there saying, "I can beat Tom." And this is how you can do it.
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It'll look something like this. I'll try to put that down there. Now, as far as performance, this is only one year with GRNY that we have, but I wanted to compare it to some other products that I think kind of fit into this area. Not directly, but should be competitive maybe with GRNY when I look at the holdings that it currently has in the fund.
So, GRNY is up 19.66% over one year. Very short time period, but very impressive performance, up nearly 20%. And I'm comparing that to another active fund here, AOTG. So, this is another fund manager that I talked to recently. Hopefully, I'll have him on soon. You can talk about his fund that he has there.
Same expense ratio, similar performance, different makeup, different selection criteria for his fund and how he picks them. So, that'll be interesting. So, like and subscribe if you want to hear more about AOTG in the the coming weeks. Our two benchmarks here of of course the S&P 500 VO up around 14 and a.5 a.5% currently over the last year and the NASDAQ 100 up around 20 and a half%.
And it surprises me. I mean QQQ continues to perform really well by the Q's done exceptionally well. Best performer out of all of these that I'm comparing it to up 20 and a half%. Vanguard has their uh VGT. This is probably I I include this in a lot of videos. It's probably my largest holding as far as ETFs go.
Uh I've been buying this for a long period of time and I continue to add to it uh routinely. Uh but this is their information technology ETF up 20.3%. SHG, which we kind of discussed. I think this is a good growth ETF that compares to GRNY. I looked at fund overlap a little bit. It was around 50% of what's in GRNY was in CHG.
Of course, CHG is going to give you a larger stock selection overall, but you can see that GRNY has outperformed SCG and so has AOTG. Two actively managed funds that I think would compare with SCHG. So, it is working in that case, but still lagging behind QQQ. Then I threw in one more, which is QDVO.
We've talked about this one recently. This is from Amplify ETFs, and it's up a respectable 18 and a half%. So, another strong year for again a relatively new fund. So, is it working? Is it not working? It's uh again, you're stepping on the risk curve. You're getting some good results. Uh I would like to have more information, but off to a really promising start, I guess, is how I would categorize it.
So, that's my first look at GRNY from Tom Lee and Funstrat. Uh my thought here is that I like that it uh rebalances on a quarterly basis. I think if we're going to take this thematic approach and you're going to be uh looking at some of these higher multiple stocks, uh that would be my preference. Uh I think you have to have a reason if you're going to be investing in active ETF like that.
And that could be as simple as you like the manager's track record, right? You like Tom Lee, you like what he stands for, you're a buyer, you're a believer, because you are going to pay a higher amount to be involved in this, right? at 75 basis points for this versus if you buy the S&P 500, you're looking at um three basis points, right?
So at 25 multiple of what it is just to own the S&P 500. But we do see performance in year one and a year where we've had good stock market performance and we would expect those stocks with those higher multiples to perform probably a little bit better, right? We've seen more growth out of those. So so far so good.
Only one year in, but uh yeah, let me know what you think about this one. Like and subscribe if you like this type of content. Any questions, ask down below. And uh we'll see you real soon. Take care.
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