저자: Dave · 외국인
요약 보기
SPY·QQQ 옵션 매도(풋/콜)로 인컴을 얻는 방법과 위험을 설명. 현재 VIX가 13 미만으로 낮아 프리미엄이 낮다고 진단. SPY ATM 4주 풋 약 14% 연환산, QQQ ATM 약 18.5%. 3% OTM 시 수익은 5~8% 수준으로 작아짐. 10% 급락 시 약 60만 달러 규모의 주식 매수 부담 가능성을 경고. 개별 종목 고수익 주장에 대한 반박 성격.
다듬은 글
hi guys welcome back to the channel my name is Dave and today I want to talk about selling options for income using spy we're going to toss in QQQ as well these are two really popular ETFs for trading options there's lots of volume lots of open interest that means it's easy to jump in and out of contracts there's lots of expiration dates so two great ETFs to learn about especially if you're brand new to options so we're going to take a look at the risks and the rewards that you can have by selling puts and some calls against these types of positions and what is a realistic return as well so we'll look at a bunch of examples so if that is what you're looking for please stick around let's start with a quick Public Service Announcement about risk and about selling puts and calls against spy QQQ or any individual stock for that matter so right now if you look at the vix we're sitting under 13 right that's a that's a Crouching Tiger vix ready to jump up and rip your balls off that's that's how I look at it so everybody currently going back a year and a half beginning of 2023 looks like a genius right if you own stocks you've got all this stock appreciation you're doing greater ETFs for that matter if you've been selling aggressive puts near at the money against spy and QQQ you look like a genius it's free money I'm just doing this every week look what I can generate you've probably seen some of those videos be aware they probably weren't around back in 2020 March when the S&P dropped 10% right so for with options there are going to be good days and bad days but options are about compromise right so there are going to be times when it feels like free money but if you haven't been through that period oo it can be really rough so be aware of that as we move through this so let's start by taking a quick look at a one-year vix chart and the vix if you're not familiar with it is our uh volatility indicator for the S&P 500 so if you're brand new to this I'll link a video above where I went into a little bit more detail about the vix explaining a little bit more about it but just understand that this is going to drive pricing models for the S&P 500 so we're selling puts and calls against spy we're in a low vix environment that means our premiums that we're going to be able to collect by selling puts and calls it's going to be relatively low now this is a quick Snapshot from this past Friday if you wanted to sell an at the money put out 4 weeks from today so with spy at 541 if you sell the 541 strike it generates about $580 so uh how does that sound well that means you're going to collect $580 for selling this put right now now if it expires above 541 you keep all of it if it falls below 541 well that's when you start to lose on that option okay you have all the way down to your break even then it shows you're a 53519 but if you have a big 10% pullback Like We had back in 2020 well that's going to hit you pretty darn hard just want to understand that $580 is what you can generate at the money we'll take a little deeper look at that as we progress through this now if you wanted to sell out of the money which is what I typically do the returns are become quite meager quite quickly so now we're looking at still at 541 we're selling a put July 12th out 4 weeks but we're dropping down to 525 525 is 3% out of the money if you sold 3% out of the money your max gain is $194 that means it expires above the 525 strike price but again if it goes below that you're going to either take assignment or you're going to start losing value of the option that you sold and it could result in a loss all the way down to- 52 $236 if the S&P 500 crashes to zero that's always kind of comical to me we know it's not going to go to zero but uh you know it's showing you what could potentially happen in a Bizarro world I suppose so uh let's put those two in uh into context using my options calculator so I took that information I plugged it into my cash secured put calculator so we could look at them side by side so on this side we have the at the money put 614 was the date I did the trade or looked at the trade one contract of spy with a four-week expiration out to 712 stock price was 54150 and I'm selling a put at a 541 strike pretty much at the money and over here we're doing it at a 525 strike which is just about 3% out of the money right both 28 days till expiration and you can see that collecting 581 and 195 okay so at the money generates right now in our current vix environment only a 14% % annualized return which means if we did this this every 28 days and repeated all year long getting a 14% return and a current environment so you could have been doing that the last 18 months and bragging about it but if you just owned s SP you could have done better uh because it was up L about 25% last year so uh in the current environment not huge return selling even at the money and if we went out of the money by 3% it becomes pretty darn meager down around 5% but that's tend that is kind of what I tend to do because I'm trying to collect a conservative premium when I sell my puts and my calls on my positions so just to get some context to us in our current environment 14% at the money 4.84% 3% out of the money looking out four weeks and then I repeated that exact same process using QQQ so in this case 614 same thing same expiration but we switched it over to QQQ so so QQQ was trading at 47868 and I sold the at the money strike $478 which generated $680 of Premium versus selling 3% out of the money at the 464 strike generated $275 of Premium so same idea with QQQ now with QQQ we're going to have a little bit more volatility baked into these trade so in this case we've got an annualized return of 18.5% at the money and about 7.73% selling out of the money by 3% out four weeks so now let's take a quick and critical look at the different spy and QQQ option trades that I currently have open understanding that these are just simple puts and calls no defined risk trades no credit spreads no debit spreads Nothing Fancy no iron Condors just simple single leg option trades so we're going to go through these pretty quick but uh let's take a look this is as of Friday 614 when spy was at 54070 and I have one put at 515 June 14th about ready to expire here's my first critical point why are you why do you have this open Dave to collect $1 something terrible could happen and this $77.34 that you sold this for could be wiped out very quickly so if I wanted to close this right now it would cost me $1 should have closed it a long time ago same with these other two sold them for 137 and 180 and now they're worth 25 and 11 so if I wanted to close those that's what that would cost so in all these positions I'm doing really well but I should get off my lazy butt and close them out and that brings me to a point here you know managing option positions does take time and I'm going to be doing a video with a friend soon who's semi-retired retired that uh is really focused on cover call ETFs and some of the other things that we discuss and uh we're going to see and like kind of compare and contrast managing these positions for yourself versus just buying things like s SP pyi or ji instead of doing this type of work now next up I've got my QQQ trades again here at Fidelity got a four let's talk about this first one here this is a 460 call so again it works the other direction too during a a bull market if you're selling puts you're doing great but if you're selling calls against the position that you're building uh then it could be uh a big negative right because you're going to cap your upside at 460 when QQQ is raced all the way up to 476 so while I've had the gain in the stock I'm losing on this option I could roll it out further into the future maybe roll it up a little bit but doesn't doesn't change the fact that I've capped my upside and I've lost on that option okay then we've got one at 433 another one at 433 a couple weeks later and one at 442 July 5th and again I've done pretty well this one probably should be closed out this one maybe two this one and borderline you can decide you've collected 2/3 is the time to close it probably Dr risk right and finally I've got a few more over here and this is E Trade so I use both platforms uh but I want you to kind of think about how many option contracts I have open that are cash secured puts and how much reliability I have out there when I have all these different trades out there right if you take assignment of all these because there's a big pullback in the stock market right if we D 20% we enter a bare Market suddenly it could be pretty devastating right make can lose a lot of money end up with a lot of shares of two very good products but uh that could really hamper what I'm trying to do right which is trying to generate some income maybe sitting on those shares for a long period of time so again QQQ is at 478 I've got one at 400 415 458 427 and 350 I've collected uh the vast majority in most of these one is uh down just a little bit it's 458 so we'll see how that all shakes out uh originally sold these for 36 $316 161 191 251 so collecting a lot of Premium doing okay but again you look at these positions uh combined with your cash position where you might be collecting 5% and you have to determine you know are you doing okay versus wanting to own it and I've talked a little bit I have a lot of I've got a large cash position that's part of my personal situation but I also have been adding more to my stock positions and uh that includes these ETFs and then spy down here at the bottom $ 499 and 512 again collecting the vast majority need to close it get off my lazy butt and do it and uh this one at 512 I've collected almost 2/3 again those are all the positions that I have open right now and I just kind of want to get show people an example of what I do so let's talk liability now because you've seen all my open sold put positions and these are not defined risk trades meaning I don't have a long put to go along with them so if we have a a terrible Monday something happens uh to the US economy we get that March 2020 pullback of 10% in the s& p500 and all these get assigned to me because I was lazy right and I didn't close these out when they're only worth a couple bucks so first of all I get to flex right because I I sold all this premium I collected a couple thousand dollars I'm feeling pretty good but then Monday rolls around terrible Monday it drops it continues to decline uh all the way till these get assigned in that case what's my liability look like well on the Spy side it's about $250,000 that I get to uh buy of spy and on the QQQ side uh about $340,000 so altogether about $600,000 between those two products that I'm going to be buying now these are great products I don't mind owning them for the long term and I continue to add to Sister versions of these uh so it's not a terrible thing but it is a significant loss uh so I'll be talking about that in my next video now if you are looking for a little bit more in-depth information on selling spy options and QQQ options I'll link a couple videos above that dojust that they'll go into more depth and talk more about exactly what buttons to push because this video is more about the risks and about what you could potentially earn by selling at the money or slightly out of the money using these products so uh I've heard some disturbing information lately about you know individual stocks and the returns and all this kind of stuff and it always kind of sets me off a little bit so that was my objective today to show you what a a logical number is behind it and I'm going to be talking to a friend here shortly that is retired and uses covered call ETFs versus what I do which is managing a lot of these positions in the time that it takes we're gonna have that whole conversation and that dialogue which fits in really well with both of our channels so I think that'll be interesting too so again like And subscribe but uh hopefully this helps you if you're looking at these types of products and you're considering selling spy calls puts anything like that so uh we'll see you next time have a great night take care
Comments 0