저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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제임스 로저스는 현재 인플레이션이 일시적이 아니며 장기간 지속될 것이라고 본다. 과도한 통화 발행과 차입이 역사적으로 인플레이션을 낳았고, 이번에도 같은 결과가 나올 것이라는 입장이다. 연준과 재무부 인사들의 '통제 중' 발언은 신뢰하지 않으며, 중앙은행은 대체로 틀린다고 평가한다. 그는 최종적으로 금리 인상과 경기 문제가 불가피하다고 보고, 2008년 이후 전 세계 부채가 급증해 다음 경제 위기가 생애 최악일 수 있다고 경고한다. 중국에 대해서는 부동산 문제와 부채 부담으로 많은 문제가 생길 것이라고 보지만, 그렇다고 중국에서 빠져나올 이유는 없다고 말한다. 중국이 파산을 용인하겠다는 방침이 실행된다면 중국과 세계에 좋을 것이라고 평가한다. 러시아의 인플레이션이 미국보다 심각하며, 원자재 가격 상승은 전 세계로 전파된다는 점도 언급한다. 투자 조언으로는 자신이 잘 아는 분야에만 투자하고, 인터넷의 핫팁을 따르지 말며, 매매를 자주 하지 말라고 강조한다. 시장 호황 말기에는 신규 투자자가 몰리고 사기(폰지)가 등장한다는 점도 경고한다. 구체적 종목 및 자산(삼성전자, 금, 비트코인 등)에 대한 단기 가격 예측은 없고, 금리·인플레이션에 대한 거시적 견해만 제시된다.
다듬은 글
gigantic riots in the street massacres in the streets 15 depressions with a d we had riots in the streets we had very little rule of law and yet we became the most extraordinarily successful country in the 20th century that's the way the world works the uk became the most successful country in the 19th century but my gosh did they have problems along the way so yes i've tried to explain many many times to many people china is going to have lots of problems i don't know what we're seeing some of them now i have certain many many times talked about the real estate problems developing there and china knows they have a real estate problem beijing has been trying to do something about the real estate problems for a long time looks like maybe they're finally succeeding uh maybe it's taken them too long but elijah this is the way the world works america had some horrible times i would expect china to have some horrible times they're having bankruptcies now beijing says if people make mistakes we're going to let them go bankrupt i hope they mean it i mean that really really really it'll be good for china it'll be good for the world if they mean it and if they do it so yes and who knows we're going to see a lot of problems in china can i tell you which ones if i knew i would be shorting them but i know that china will have many many problems but in the end i still don't see any reason to get out of china anymore you know if i had sold america in 1920 i might have looked good for a couple of years but 80 years later i would have looked like a fool to sell america that's my view of china it's going to affect the whole world it already is affecting the whole world russia is a very large economy inflation in russia is much worse than it is in the u.s right now for whatever reason it's already affecting many countries in the world different degrees obviously but no it's going to affect everywhere elijah if the price of cotton goes up it goes up everywhere it doesn't go up just in the u.s it goes up everywhere and that means the price for shirts goes up everywhere no inflation is here uh it's going to get worse it's going to continue for a long time i don't know how long but certainly a long time it's always worked that way you know if for no what reason we had this staggering amount of money printing all over the world historically that has led to higher prices i presume it will continue to lead to higher prices now we have never had so much money printing in the history of the world we have never had so much borrowing and spending in the history of the world and that's always led to inflation in washington they say no don't worry we have it under control janet yellen says we want the secretary of the treasury says we will never have economic problems again because now we have figured it out she's got two ivy league degrees if you believe her elijah inflation will be over by christmas and don't worry and they won't be back i have a different view well you know i sit here and i watch these things just like the rest of us and i say to myself now are they really that dumb are they just trying to keep their jobs or what is it because these people are supposedly knowledgeable we supposedly have read some economics read some history and they're supposed to know what's happening i have certainly learned in my in my experience in my career don't listen to central banks rarely do they know what they're doing and they nearly always get it wrong so i guess it's just another in a long line of central banks making foods of themselves not just in the us most central banks everywhere we've had a couple of good central bankers in the u.s we've got a couple in the world in my lifetime but most of them are charlatans at best um i don't know what mrs yellen and i and the rest of the rest of them think but i do know that it's here and it's not transitory now the only choices historically have been you cut back on the money supply you stop printing so much money you raise interest rates you stop spending so much you bought you stop borrowing so much this is the way the world has always worked maybe it's different this time elijah mrs yellen says it is different this time i hope so but i doubt it all i can see is higher interest rates somewhere along the line an economic problem then inflation gets broken eventually but that's a lot of a lot of time and a lot of pain that my view is first of all my viewers we've always had economic problems periodically throughout history and then we always will we have not figured out a way to solve that problem we're still human beings so yes we will have more economic problems and elijah in 2008 we had a huge problem because of too much debt since 2008 the debt has gone up by staggering staggering amounts all over the world so that i mean even china has a lot of debt now nobody would lend money to china 20 years ago but now china even has a lot of debt which they didn't have in 2008.
so the next economic problem has to be the worst in my lifetime now i just say that as a simple statement i'm not trying to scare people or anything else i'm just saying 2008 was bad because they're dead since 2008 the debt has skyrocketed how could the next would not be the worst in my lifetime i mean that's that's like saying we have you know hurricanes in the fall it always happens that way so i would expect the next time around for it to be very very serious because the debt everywhere everywhere there's debt now in 2008 just to go back china had saved a lot of money for a rainy day and when it started raining china started spending the money and helped save the world china doesn't have china has a lot of debt now so i don't know who's going to save us this time north korea doesn't have much debt but north korea has only got 20 or 30 million people they can't save us this has always happened whenever you have a long bull market at the end of the bull market a lot of new people come into the market they suddenly learn this is fun and you can make a lot of money and they tell all their friends and they're all sitting around talking about it by this by that it's so easy it's so much fun it's happened at the end of every bull market that i know of in history and i'm sure it will that's just the way human beings are and here they are again another thing that has often happened at the end of bull markets is spax you know spax have been around for 300 years and they show up at the end of bull markets one of the first ones 300 years ago the the people said we're not going to tell you who we are we're not going to tell you what we're going to do with your money but you must give it you should give us as much money as you can give us all of your money and we're going to make you very very rich that's all they said and people did it well that's more or less baxa saying a little bit more than that now at least they're telling us who they are etc all of these things this is not the first time this rodeo has come to town we've seen this rodeo before at least i have seen this rodeo before so yes it's happening many young people are not all young many new people are learning about this and it is fun and you can make a lot of money but it is not easy i know we all look back and say i could have bought apple this is easy you know they could yeah they could have bought apple 30 years ago but they didn't and they wouldn't have and they probably did would not have even then so it's it's happened before and it's happening again you ask what to tell young people tell i'll tell everybody elijah this is not an easy way to make money it looks easy every once in a while but if you want to make money only invest in what you yourself know a huge amount about don't go on the internet and hear hot tips they do not get hot tips anywhere hot tips will ruin you just stay with what you know and everybody will say but that's boring if you want to be successful as an investor please be boring just stay with what you yourself know a lot about don't jump in and out of things if i told you you could only have 20 investments in your life you would be very very careful and you'd be very successful but elijah nobody wants to hear that everybody wants to be rich this month i want to be rich this month too but i know that if i start listening to hot tips i will be poor this month you
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