저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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첫 줄: 인플레이션은 채무자에게 이득, 채권자·달러 보유자에게 손해이며 연준의 대응 한계로 인플레가 지속될 가능성이 크다. 인플레이션의 부의 이전: 인플레이션은 채권자에서 채무자로 부를 이전한다. 고정금리 대출을 받아 실물자산을 사고 화폐가치가 떨어진 돈으로 상환하면 채무자가 이득을 본다. 미국 정부 관점: 미국 국가부채 약 30조 달러이므로 10% 인플레이션은 약 3조 달러의 부채를 줄이는 효과가 있다. 국채 보유자와 달러 보유자가 손해를 본다. 또한 세금 증가(명목 이익 과세), 사회보장 연동 축소 효과도 언급했다. 연준 역할: 연준이 돈을 찍어 국채를 매입(화폐화)하고 금리를 억제하며, 금리가 오르면 정부가 디폴트할 수밖에 없다고 주장. 디플레이션과 인플레이션의 순환: 연준이 공격적으로 금리를 올리면 디플레이션이 올 수 있으나, 연준은 디플레이션 조짐이 보이면 즉시 더 큰 인플레이션으로 대응할 것으로 본다. 현재 연준은 제로금리를 고수하며 인플레이션을 싸울 수 없다고 평가. 부동산 투자자 조언: 현금흐름이 좋은 임대 부동산과 장기 고정금리 부채 보유가 유리할 수 있다. 인플레 환경에서 임대료 전가가 어려워 취약한 지역이 생기고, 생활비 압박으로 공급(방 임대, 가구 합치기)이 늘 수 있다. 반면 통화가 강해지는 지역은 수혜. 건축비 상승으로 기존 주택 가치가 상대적으로 높아진다. 인플레 기간 전망: 장기간 지속될 것으로 봤으며, 정책 당국이 가격통제 같은 잘못된 처방을 먼저 시도할 것이라고 주장. 가격통제 비판: 가격통제는 공급 부족, 줄서기, 암시장을 낳는다. 1970년대 석유 사태 사례를 들며, 가격 상승은 시장 신호로서 필요하다고 주장. 특정 종목·자산 방향 예측: 영상에서 삼성전자, 비트코인, 나스닥 등 개별 대상 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
well you when you understand what inflation is it's pretty clear who benefits so first of all inflation transfers wealth from creditors to debtors because if you borrow money and then there's a lot of inflation when you pay back the money you borrowed it is less valuable than the money that you borrowed so if you could borrow money for example and use it to buy a piece of real estate and then there's a lot of inflation and the value of that money goes down when you pay off the mortgage the lender is not getting returned to him money that has the same purchasing power as it was when he loaned it to you so that lender loses and the borrower wins at the lender's expense because he gets the benefit of using the the loan to buy a real asset that holds its value and then repays the loan in money that has lost its value and so let's say there's hyperinflation or you know very very high inflation if i borrow you know uh you know say 500 000 to buy a house and then there's hyperinflation and you know you need 500 000 to buy a pack of chewing gum you know i mean what is the lender getting back for the money that he loaned me he loaned me enough money to buy a house and all i'm doing is giving him back enough money to buy a pack of gum right so it's the lender that loses and if you look at who is the biggest i mean debtor in the world it's the u.s government the u.s government has a national debt of almost 30 trillion dollars and so if there's 10 percent inflation that knocks 3 trillion dollars off the debt right so the government wins who loses the bond holders the people that bought u.s treasuries or anybody that holds us dollars they suffer that loss that the government gains but the government also has all sorts of ways that it benefits from inflation inflation creates phony gains that they tax right people have appreciation in their assets the government taxes it but it's not real appreciation it's dollar depreciation also social security is indexed to inflation and to the extent that they lie about inflation and then they don't have to increase social security as much that's a way to reduce social security benefits without voting to cut them and that's you know that's what they want to do they want to cut benefits without having to be on record as voting for the cut so inflation benefits the government in all sorts of ways and of course when the federal reserve monetizes the debt creates inflation by printing money they're buying u.s treasuries they're monetizing the debt they're making it easier for the government to finance its debts and by artificially restrict limiting interest rates because that's what inflation does the government is the fed is printing money and buying bonds to keep interest rates down that enables the government to continue to service its debt because if interest rates were allowed to go up uh the government would have to default sounds like a big chess game the next question actually is a good one for you mm-hmm about the type of idea yes so can inflation lead to deflation or are prices slash values resetting to you just did that to what they used to be i think is what it said yeah like like what what happens to does it stop it did the prices keep there and then they level out and they stay high because we hear all the time people are they're saying well it's a bubble and all bubbles pop and prices are going to come down we just have to wait it out what what happens at the peak does it stay high or does what causes it to do well there is a cycle and inflation could lead to deflation deflation could lead to inflation depending on how the federal reserve reacts so if the federal reserve reacts to inflation with aggressive rate hikes then and contracts the money supply which is what it should do we will have a deflation my concern is the fed won't do that and in fact any sign of deflation is immediately met with inflation because the government is so scared of deflation even if we get close to it even if we just get lower inflation not actual deflation but if the inflation rate gets too low the government panics because they're so worried that we might get deflation that they preemptively create even more inflation to try to prevent that from happening but if we did have a big deflation what would the government do they'd print a bunch of money they'd slash interest rates so any deflation automatically leads to a surge in inflation but whether inflation will eventually produce another round of deflation depends on what the federal reserve does again i think at this point the stakes are too high uh and they've already staked out their position really they're staying at zero uh they're not going anywhere uh and if inflation gets worse well they're just going to pretend it's not a problem they're going to pretend it's transitory then they'll pretend it's a good thing but the only thing they won't do is fight it because they can't i mean if the fed could actually fight inflation they'd be doing it right now it's already bad enough that they should be doing something the reason that they're not is because they can't but they can't admit that so they're pretending they will if inflation ever became a problem even though it's already a huge problem right now wow that's a lot to understand so we have thousands of people all over the world listening a lot of them of course here in the us but most are in the residential real estate business what should they be doing to position themselves for what you feel is coming next with this discussion which what should the real estate investor the real estate practitioner what do you feel is a good thing for them to be doing right now well you know i think you should have a property that has a good cash flow have good tenants i think you should try to have debt on the portfolio especially if you can lock it in at a low rate for a long period of time because i think you may end up making more money as a debtor than as a real estate owner but also understand you know where your property is and what the dynamics are because you know there are going to be properties that suffer and there's going to be properties that that do well in the economic environment that i see coming you know if you have rental property obviously the real value of the property is a function of you know what the rental market is like and if you're in an economy where you have very high inflation uh you know it's going to be hard to pass on the rents because you know people need to pay money for food they need to pay money for a lot of other things there may not be much left over for rent and of course what you have to realize is that demand for housing could you know or or rather supply can increase rather rapidly in depressed situations because everybody who owns a home can prevent potentially start renting out rooms right so i need extra money i can't afford to pay uh you know my food or my electricity i'm gonna rent out one of my bedrooms now all of a sudden there's more supply coming out of the single family housing also a lot of people that live by themselves you know i'm going to get a roommate and and so people are doubling up you might find more families doubling up sharing uh the same residence so all of a sudden you know you've got a lot of supply because people's standard of living is falling and they're trying to accommodate by reducing their costs and so that could make certain types of real estate in certain areas more vulnerable because if the property is just sitting empty and you're not getting any cash flow meanwhile inflation is increasing the cost of maintaining the properties governments are increasing taxes on the properties there could be a lot of problems on the other hand i think there's a lot of parts of the world where you're going to see strengthening currencies rising real incomes where real estate prices are doing really well because when you look at currency as kind of like a zero-sum game or a see-saw as the dollar loses value other currencies gain the purchasing power that the dollar loses so americans become poorer other people become richer and as those people become richer they can afford to pay higher rents they can afford more housing and so it's you know it's gonna be a mixed picture depending on where you own this property uh you know what's gonna happen to it and certainly even in america there will be certain areas uh that can do well in this environment where others won't so you know you've just got to be careful and i think you've got to look at prices and valuations i think some of these markets where prices are very very high and clearly you're talking about bubble territory there is a lot of risk but if you're looking at buying in areas uh where you know you could buy real estate where it's arguably cheaper to buy than build i mean there are plenty of places that you could buy property where it's less than it would cost you to build something comparable in some cases it's like you get the land for free because the construction costs right now are so high and they're going to get higher and it's not only the material costs that are high it's the labor costs so as it costs more and more to build new homes the homes that are already here are that much more valuable because they don't have the competition uh from the new the new homes that are being built because they're not being built because it's too expensive or they can't even do it because the materials and the labor are not even available you well so how long do you think this current inflationary cycle is going to last how would we know how do you know what do you look for in terms of it maturing or moderating what what is your expectation for this cycle i think it's going to be a long time i i don't know you know when there will be the political wherewithal to do something about it i mean i think it's going to have to get really horrific but i do think that they're gonna try a lot of crazy things first like price controls uh you know we did that in the 1970s it didn't work um and in fact the inflation is already worse now than it was back then when we tried it uh but i think we're going to try it again can you tell me what that is peter can you tell what price controls are well that's when the government makes it illegal to raise prices right they basically fix prices they say they they go after the the the symptom and not the disease right because if they keep printing money they keep creating inflation and if they try to limit price increases it's not going to stop it because what happens then is that the the you have shortages right so yes the price doesn't go up but what good does that do you if you can't buy the good the good isn't there and the way you ration the goods because in a free market we ration goods on price so if there's a short supply a lot of demand price goes up and then some people won't buy it because it becomes too expensive right and so there's always a balance between supply and demand but if the government stops the price from going up right and they keep printing money demand skyrockets but supply doesn't go up you have a huge shortage and so how do you decide who gets the product well you have a long line right you wait online uh you know for hours and hours in order to get the product so if you're not willing to wait online you're not going to get it now some wealthier people will pay people to wait online for them to get the products but there are other ways of you know distributing the goods other than rationing them through price but what ends up happening though when you have price controls apart from companies finding ways to get around it like they'll come up with a brand new product that is different from the other products so it's not technically subject to the price control um but you end up with black markets right you end up with goods being available illegally you know by criminals who will sell them at a at a higher price that's against the law but if you want to buy this stuff that's how you buy it right you buy it illegally on the black market and so that's what price controls produce is is black markets but you know shortages rationing i mean one thing with power right if the government puts the control on power um we're going to have rolling blackouts we're going to have to share the power and everybody is going to have to take turns you know having no power as opposed to letting the price go up and letting people adjust their behavior accordingly where people just stop using power who can't you know pay the price or people will be more economic i mean that's why you remember the long lines for gas in the 1970s that's because they were controlling the prices if they just let the prices go up uh there wouldn't have been long lines right just like you know in the u.s every time there's a natural disaster the government wants to go after somebody for price gouging if they if they let if they charge too much but that's a mistake because you actually want the price gouging because it's the best way to ration the goods and also eliminate the supply shortage because if the price goes way up then supply will come in from other areas of the country to meet that price and ultimately the price will come back down but when you stop the market from sending these signals uh then the shortage uh gets worse and the ultimate upward pressure on prices gets worse you
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