저자: CooperAcademy채널진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 비트코인에 대해 양면적 시각을 제시하며, 제작자 본인은 비트코인이 법정화폐 문제를 해결할 잠재력이 있다고 보나 투기·범죄 악용·에너지 소비·변동성 등 리스크가 크다고 정리한다. 워런 버핏과 찰리 멍거가 비트코인을 비판한 점을 소개한다. 멍거는 비트코인을 '쥐약(rat poison)'이라 부르며 사악하다고 평가하고, 버핏은 생산성 없는 자산 투기를 피하는 자신의 투자 철학과 맞지 않는다고 본다. 화폐 가치 하락 문제를 설명한다. 달러는 100년간 약 99% 가치가 떨어졌고, 2020년 팬데믹 이후 인플레이션으로 10만 달러 저축의 실질 가치가 약 7만 달러 수준으로 줄어든 사례를 든다. 중앙은행의 과도한 통화 발행이 저축자를 손해 보게 한다고 주장한다. 비트코인의 특징을 설명한다. 탈중앙화, 2,100만 개 발행 상한, 송금 편의성을 장점으로 꼽는다. 반면 범죄 자금 이전에 악용될 수 있고, 엘론 머스크의 테슬라가 환경 문제로 결제를 중단했으며, 연간 전력 소비가 말레이시아·스웨덴 수준이라고 지적한다. 엘살바도르의 법정화폐 채택 사례를 들며, 2023년 후반 실제 사용이 드물고 가격 변동성이 생활에 부담이 된다고 평가한다. 비트코인이 결국 0으로 갈 가능성이 높다는 주장도 언급된다. 제작자는 비트코인이 기존 화폐 체제의 문제를 해결할 수도, 오히려 그 피해를 키울 수도 있다고 보며 양쪽 모두 현실적 가능성이 있다고 결론짓는다. 비트코인 가격 전망으로는 현재 시가총액 약 7,000억 달러를 기준으로, 금(약 11조 달러) 수준이 되면 15배, 금보다 높게 평가되면 약 30배 상승 가능성을 가정적으로 언급하지만, 실제 방향에 대한 확신은 드러내지 않는다. 출연자 전망 요지: 제작자는 중립적 입장을 취하며 비트코인에 대한 강한 매수·매도 추천은 하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
I never knew what to think about Bitcoin when it first came on my radar but unlike me Warren Buffett was very clear on his thoughts if you told me you owned all of the Bitcoin in the world and you offered it to me for $25 I wouldn't take it because what would I do with it and his longtime partner Charlie Munger makes him look like some kind of Bitcoin fanatic well I have a slightly different way of looking at it in my life I try and avoid things that are stupid and evil and make me look bad in comparison with somebody else Bitcoin does all three they first started talking about Bitcoin in early 2018 since then Bitcoin has increased 400% while Berkshire Hathaway their investment company has gone up 75% so how can Bitcoin be so bad if it's doing so well and why do these two who are regarded as the epitome of financial wisdom despise Bitcoin could they dare I say it be wrong I spent the past month trying to answer this question I did not expect to find what I found Bitcoin is the Apex property of the human race there is no property invented in the history of mankind that is better than Bitcoin there's no intrinsic value to this asset if you have the superior asset It's Going Up For Ever Laura!
And now it is in the process of going to zero except for Bitcoin which will probably go negative but I think 2025 is going to be the spectacular year north of 300,000 for Bitcoin I can say almost with certainty that, they will come to a bad ending and then it is going to scale from a little more than a trillion dollar today to $25 trillion in 2030 it's kind of a pure greater fool Theory I would short it if there was an easy way to do it it will be as significant for Freedom as the birth of the internet.
Bitcoin is worthless artificial gold I think it's a scumball activity to understand Bitcoin unque need to understand the problem I'm going to put you in the shoes of a 30-year-old living in the US it's 2020 and the whole country gets shut down yes that rarely happened but this guy Ryan has been responsible his whole life he's worked hard since he was 18 no partying no traveling definitely no silly Amazon purchases he saved up $100,000 to buy a house and to take care of his family but then the pandemic comes and he decides I'm going to keep being responsible and lock my money away until times are less volatile traditionally considered a good decision 3 years later he comes back to his money and he can't buy the house prices are 37% more expensive to fill up his car it's double the price that $100,000 that he spent 12 years working so hard for is worth $70,000 in real terms and that's just 3 years this is what he gets for working hard nine to five, saving No gambling no speculation he gets hit with what's known in the finance Community with the silent tax the silent tax is not just in the great country of the USA in most countries it's much worse if we use the same example with the same amount in the same time period but changed him to being in Argentina with pesos he would have 15,000 left today.
I wish this was a madeup story in some inverse reality but it's not. The thing we know as traditional currency has got major flaws to it if only there were another way. If you go back in history you notice that this issue is not some modern day problem it's been going on for more than 100 years with more than 100 currencies.
The dollar is losing 7 to 10% of its value a year for 100 years. That means over the course of 100 years the dollar loses 99% of its value. My house in Miami Beach was purchased for $100,000 in 1930 I bought it for $14 million dollars in 2012, today you know yeah so... 100,000 to 50 million in less than 100 years that's not the house getting more valuable that's the currency getting less valuable.
Okay if you took a if you took any amount of money take a $100 million in the year 1900 and invested in any currency in the world you would have lost 100% of your money in every currency except for the dollar or maybe the pound every currency collapsed. The winner of every war in the 20th century was the United States and so the winning currency loses 99.5% of its value everybody else you lose everything.
The problem is if you hold the wrong currency you get burns the problem with this is every single currency is the wrong currency it's only a matter of how badly you get burnt. The reason why is because all of them have one thing in common, they are controlled by central power, a power which purposely legally and silently dilutes the people's currency, but what if I told you there was a new currency which didn't...
The idea of currency is fundamentally a good one I'm a fisherman and you're a lumberjack I fish I have some leftover so I give some fish to you and in return you give me some logs hang on I don't need any logs well use this piece of paper instead to store the value so you can use it on something that you do need.
That piece of paper is what we call currency or a store of value the problem comes not with the concept of currency but with the people who control that currency this institution is known as the central bank or in the USA the Federal Reserve. Like your uncle who can't shake his gambling habit the central bank has a nasty habit of their own...
The Fed was printing too much money Federal Reserve pumping money in the Federal Reserve just printed $300 billion in one week that has gone up $800 billion is the government printed a zillion more money than it had unlimited money the Federal Reserve and the Central Bank in Japan and the Central Bank in England and the Central Bank in Europe printing staggering amounts of money inflation is going to last for years.
The fed's nasty habit is printing money. Unfortunately what happens when you print more money into the system it devalues the current money that's already in the system so everyone's cash that they' saved in the bank effectively gets devalued by how much is printed and then your left with the savers who become losers and the not savers, well they stay broke too.
Either this is just the way things have been is now and will always be and we must just deal with it or we can find a solution. Someone who knows this problem very well is a person who goes by the name of Satoshi Nakamoto. Whether he been burnt by inflation in the past whether he had lost faith in the traditional Financial system, whether he was just bored looking for an easy way to become a millionaire we don't know.
We're not even sure if Satoshi was a he or a single individual. The only thing that we do know is that Satoshi was the one who invented Bitcoin. In January 2009 this mysterious online currency gets created, it's designed in a way to solve all of the issues of modern currencies. One it's not controlled by anyone its power is decentralized across millions of computers If one computer or even a thousand get in the wrong hands you still have a million others to keep the currency safe.
Two it has a maximum supply of 21 million coins this way the currency cannot be inflated. This means people like Ryan aren't left penniless simply by doing nothing. Three unlike gold the currency can be transferred at the click of a button which is a very powerful concept. Let's say you wanted to transfer your wealth to a new country your current country has turned corrupt too much crime controlling government whatever okay no problem a few clicks and you send your money anywhere any place any time.
Or if this is too hard remember your private Key password and your entire net worth can literally be stored in your head. It sounds like a pretty good invention so that begs the question why the heck do these two Financial sages hate it? To work this out we need to enter into the mind of Warren Buffett I've studied Warren Buffett ever since I was a nerdy 18-year-old just heading into uni so I know exactly why Buffett hates Bitcoin.
in January 2011 Buffett Was preparing to make a big investment. He'd spotted a company which fits his investing philosophy and could make him a lot of money his philosophy is to buy stocks for a reasonable price where the cash flow quickly pays you back the price and then even more for years to come.
this philosophy has consistently worked for him throughout the years. he decides to make his move and he snaffles up 55 million shares of IBM. this stock has just made $15 billion in income and has a market cap of $200 billion. If all goes well this company should pay his money back quickly and then he'll have a free cash flow machine this investment is perfect for Warren Buffett because he doesn't like to do what's known as speculating buying something that's not producing much in the hopes that one day it will.
Buffett considers this too risky and his worst nightmare is to lose his shareholders money even more than losing his own so when a new asset comes along that produces literally nothing is a currency that's not used in everyday life and even worse one that's purely online Buffett doesn't even let it touch the purview of his investing framework and then there's Charlie Munger.
Charlie well let's just say he's a bit more to the point than Warren. when Charlie buys a stock he doesn't hold back in 1978 he saw Berkshire Hathaway and put most of his family wealth in the company, he found Costco many moons ago and went large into the stock. when Munger sees something that he likes he takes an extreme position but this concept works both ways.
sometimes I call it crypto Crapo and sometimes I call it well crypto ****. I think it's rat poison. A key argument behind Munger is he thinks Bitcoin is evil now I can see how a human can be evil A system can be evil a cult can be evil but a currency this doesn't make sense or does it? unfortunately it's not just the peaceful Freedom Seeker who has adopted Bitcoin it has also become a great currency for criminals.
this is a very very bad thing the country did not need a currency that's good for kidnappers and so on. let's say I'm doing something illegal I'm a drug trafficker full disclosure I'm not a drug trafficker. I've just sold a million dollars worth of drugs to a dealer so the dealer sends the money to my bank account.
hang on I don't want this money going to my bank account banks are highly regulated they require identity documents they need legal statements to approve large transactions the account can be frozen or seized I could get caught. no problem send the money to my Bitcoin address instead and I'll remain anonymous yes the transactions are kept on the blockchain but the identities no one knows and there you go I've just made $1 million illegally anonymously.
bitcoin's greatest benefit becomes its greatest downfall no one can control it so no one can control the criminals. ah you say you want freedom but how much Freedom do you really want? enough freedom for criminals to operate financially? the success of Bitcoin is fundamentally different to most assets Bitcoin success depends on how many people want it.
if no one wants to buy a bond from you ah doesn't matter you still receive yearly coupon payments, if no one wants to buy your stock well the business still earns money anyway if no one wants to buy your farm it keeps producing crops but if no one wants to buy your Bitcoin it's worthless however on the flip side if everyone wants it it becomes very valuable this is why the people that own it are surprisingly loud about owning it they need others to adopt it so that the price goes up and the most important people that they need on board is the institutions the big money Black Rock Vanguard hedge funds governments we all know China's move to holding gold instead of the US dollar but imagine if they move to Bitcoin.
Now I hear a lot of crazy price predictions that to be honest I don't know where they pull these numbers up from but let's try be realistic if all goes well how big could Bitcoin get? right now Bitcoin has a market cap of $700 billion another asset class that is considered a store of value is gold. Gold's market cap is 11 trillion if Bitcoin were to get as big as gold it could 15x.
or you could argue it's better than gold maybe it should be double Gold's market value that would be a 30X in price but that's very bullish gold has been used for storing value for hundreds of years bitcoin's barely been used for 10 that's one outcome for Bitcoin the other outcome you probably don't want to hear this has been the Fate that many other cryptos have already experienced Bitcoin is by no means the perfect form of currency.
in May 2021 Elon Musk's Tesla stopped accepting Bitcoin as a form of payment. why I thought Bitcoin was the currency of freedom and Elon Musk is almost the flag carrier of this he sold Bitcoin not because it's decentralized and free but because of its energy use. a Harvard Business Review calculated that Bitcoin consumes around 110 Terrawatt hours per year that's 0.55% of global electricity production or roughly equivalent to countries like Malaysia or Sweden's energy draw.
I'm going to put that bluntly that's a damn lot and it's a dam damn lot on the environment. Add in slow transactions annoying fees and the volatility of the free market and you have a currency that is pretty painful to use just go ask Al Salvador. Al Salvador adopted Bitcoin as their second National currency in September 2021 going to Great Lengths to see it ubiquitous.
but in late 2023 it's very rare for businesses and people to use the crypto it's too slow and it's too volatile imagine just holding your savings and a few months later it's gone down 20% and then the next month it's up 20% that's your financial life's work you'd have to be Marcus Aurelius to not get emotionally affected by that.
the sad reality about Bitcoin is it has a lot of flaws as a currency and all of these flaws may cause it don't say it don't say it don't say it to go to zero. it's stupid cuz it's very likely to go to zero it's worthless it's no good it's crazy it'll do nothing but harm it's antisocial it's just disgusting it's like somebody else is trading turds and you decide I can't be left out.
it will come to a bad ending there's this interesting battle that's going on in the finance world right now it's kind of like the battle between the left and the right. the left is talking about all of the possibilities and benefits if we try a new system and the right is talking about everything that could go wrong the new Financial influences are saying it's great the old are saying it's rat poison except unlike politics with Bitcoin I don't think there's going to be an outcome that's in between the two parties this coin something that you can't touch hold or control could fix the age-old problem of broken currencies or it could be the coin that ironically hurts the very people that it intends to save I'm not going to be a fence sitter I don't agree that this coin is evil I prefer a world with crypto than without but the risks are very real
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