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엔비디아는 CES 기조연설 이후 금리 급등 등 외부 요인으로 하락했으나 AI 사업 구조는 건재하다고 주장. 물리적 AI·자율주행·로봇 확장 수혜를 강조하며 하락을 과도한 투기성 자금 탓으로 봄. 엔비디아 주가는 조정 후 매수 기회라는 입장.
다듬은 글
if you look at the Hideous action in the stock of Nvidia today you think CEO Jensen Wong offered nothing special at his CES keynote last night or maybe even that he canceled it but sometimes the stock doesn't tell the whole story particularly this stock first of all the whole Tech sector rolled over today even as other parts of the market like healthcare and Banks they held up well second I'd argue that tech stocks were victims of the flailing tenure treasury as I said at the top of the show finally this stock was up huge going into Jensen speech last night at its highs it was shocking Nvidia managed to open up strongly this morning and it was sing it only fell from those levels because the yield in the 10year treasury Spike listen I'm a stock guy not a tech guy not a health guy and not a bank guy but I am what's called a generalist I cover many different Industries many different companies but some stocks I follow more closely than others stocks like Invidia that means I know nvidia's capabilities and to someone who knows about the company I did find last night's Beach pretty darn dazzling see last night Jensen took a leap to go much deeper with physical AI including making humanoid robots and taking autonomous driving to the next level as Jon said quote everything that moves from Cars and Trucks to factories and warehouses will be robotic and embodied by AI n quote to me that sounds like the agentic economy where we have digital agents that can do all sorts of things for us and it's all Nvidia the world will never be the same if this happens any after last 10 I think it's happening much sooner than expected that was the takeaway Jensen talked about the possibly relevant aipc something that's been considered bus he mentioned several uses for Apple's Vision Pro for healthcare and gaming another alleged bust plus there are all new clients clients like Toyota that may want to build out a network using a supercomputer brain in one location and then a brain on board I know that's just sounds like a press release but if Toyota well capitalized company decides to build out a Tesla like autonomous driving system it's going to have to buy hundreds of thousands of Nvidia chips that's good for business very additive now there are always people plenty of people actually who own Nvidia for the long term like trust does they should be gratified by all these very important announcements but there's also a huge group of people who own Nvidia because it goes up often bu a lot and the stock went nuts going going into and immediately after jens's speech these people many of whom buy call options not common stock don't know enough about the company just stay in it when the stock start selling off uh I'm sure they didn't watch the keynote or read the blogs and they're just in it because the momentum when the momentum turns they turn too to me this is business as usual people I may not know all the exciting specs that Jensen talked about as I see it he assured you that the new Industrial Revolution is alive and well and coming you in a very short time in my eyes Nvidia stock was brought down not by anything lacking in CES but because there was too much hot money in the stock and these kinds of fellow Travelers are your worst enemy if you're a shareholder this decline had nothing to do with the specs from Blackwell or any of nvidia's other chips my Nvidia died a few years ago but the company NVIDIA it is alive and well with the stock the titled this kind of move over and over again it just stands out because the company now has $3.4 trillion market capitalization slightly more apple and to some the agre this morning at $153 stock it was priced for Perfection it closed at $140 the thing is last night Jensen actually gave us Perfection and that's why Nvidia actually opened up but other forces intervene and crushed the stock we don't know what the employment number will look like on Friday but if it's at all soft today's sellers will be kicking themselves if you don't already own it you can think about buying some now like maybe you know nicely below its alltime high and wait until the labor department to buy more if it comes in hot you will get a chance to buy this stock lower maybe much lower but understand one thing the keynote Dazzle the new projects are way ahead of any other company and this new Industrial Revolution belongs to Nvidia that doesn't mean the stock can't go down it just means that you can buy happily buy the inevitable pullbacks although when they do happen remember they tend to be sizable and brought about by scared shareholders who aren't sure exactly what Nvidia makes other than sparkling leather jackets and mini Jensen in The Labyrinth and world of semiconductors where the pulse of the stock market often Finds Its Tempo a seismic shift is Making Waves across the industry promising disruption and exhilarating opportunities imagine waking up to discover that Nvidia a Powerhouse in AI Innovation is boldly staking its claim in the $35 billion client compute Market meanwhile industry stalwarts like Intel and AMD find themselves entangled in a race to redefine their footing hold on to your hats as we take a deep dive into Nvidia spreading itself onto the AI Market welcome back everyone to invest ocracy all all right joining me now Mark Newton Global head of technical strategy at front Str Global advisers Mark good morning thanks so much for joining us thanks Frank great all right so we just heard Rick readers say the Market's got some pretty good footing he sees you know more upside to come we actually want to look at some areas of the market where there's been a little bit of pressure and you also see some upside why don't we start with the S&P 500 sounds good Frank let's take a look at the S&P so so Mark if you don't mind if I start uh for last month S&P down we're going to go over here a little bit of weakness down about 3 and a half% but you're saying there's an upside Trend overall that you're bullish on yeah I agree Frank when you look at the longer term Trend despite all the damage we've seen in the market this year starting really last December we've not really seen sufficient evidence of the market truly breaking down that's thanks to technology so 5700 is really an important spot any sort of weakness into CPI that would be something investors really want to consider that you know Trends have not shown sufficient deterioration to turn to negative at this point so does that signal we're going to see a bounce in the S&P 500 after CPI your mind is the momentum just going to pull us that way even if we get a hotter than expected CPI or is it dependent on the CPI report so look reer has his fundamental thoughts I have my technical thoughts both of them say that markets are near levels within 3 to five days where we're going to bottom out so longer term Trends remain intact sentiment gotten a little skittish um technology to its credit has been able to hold the market up that's a great point and really a reason why we're likely to stabilize significant support down near 5700 not only is line up with last November's lows but also lengthier long-term uptrends just from 2023 so really really good support as a good time to buy in my view senent might be a little bit more than skish I think the vix is up to about 20 right now so a lot of index investors especially are going to be glad to hear you say that there's going to be a bounce in the S&P 500 we want to move to one of the most widely held stocks in the market that's Nvidia so I was just looking at the charts myself I'm not a chart Master like you are but I was looking at the charts myself since CES which is a very small part of this chart I'm looking at Nvidia down just about 8% since there we all thought that alligator jacket would lead to a rally I guess it didn't but you're saying there's a trend here that you're seeing as well that's setting up Nvidia for a potential bounce yeah so despite a lot of the Carnage we've seen in semis since last July when you look at Nvidia this continues to be a standout leader and similar to the broader S&P the stock has pulled back to almost exactly where it needs to to think that okay it's a great risk reward short-term weakness but no longer term Trend damage investors want to be buyers into this pullback all right so I just want ask you this Nvidia is a chip stock these are cyclical stocks so when you're looking at the technicals of this stock and you see this trend any concern that the cycle comes to an end at some point and that's the downturn well we have to let the stock tell us that and unfortunately we can't bet against ongoing uptrends you know most of the the socks is down about 15 16% from its July peaks of last year Nvidia still within Striking Distance of all-time highs so you know it seems like a very severe shortterm pullback the key lesson for investors is always put the short-term price movement into context of what the longer term charts are showing and so the longer term charts show this remains in great shape as William Stein delves deeper into the intricacies of the semiconductor sector it's impossible to ignore the magnetic pull of nidia's strategic Ascent known for its Stellar performative momentum in AI chips Nvidia is setting a pace much like a sprinter in a marathon pulling ahead by leveraging its culture of Relentless Innovation and impressive AI driven Services while Nvidia rides the crest of innovation Intel grapples with a pivotal identity crisis analysts have noted that Intel bruised from losing its crown jewels leadership in semiconductor manufacturing to taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing and CPU prowess to AMD is plotting an ambitious Resurgence plan the only question is will this comeback be of Championship Glory or a lesson in humilit for a look at what's ahead this year we want to welcome Jean mster Deepwater Asset Management managing partner and uh Jean let's talk this through okay so up incredible amounts for this year biggest market cap out there what uh is the anticipation for for this coming year for 2025 you think that this money is still going to be good is there still going to be the huge amount of demand can they continue to just take in rake in the cash um that they've been able to do to this point I mean specific to Nvidia yes I think this is going to continue I think that the growth rates are going to remain higher for longer specifically the focus is on calendar 26 what that growth is going to be the streets expecting low 20% growth I think it's going to exceed 30% growth and so uh the still trades at a reasonable multiple 25x multiple and kind of plays to what I think is going to be the chorus in 2025 obviously Nvidia being at the center of the AI trade I still think we have two solid years left of uh of a strong Tech trade here based on AI and I just want to quickly that uh fill in the point Becky that probably seems out of touch with reality just given the 87% uh move we've seen in the NASDAQ over the past uh couple years how is it possible that this can continue and I come back to for most people the concept of AI is a buzzword and I put in the context that if you look at chat GPT the daily users it's only about 150 million that compares to about two and a half billion Google users we're still early in this and I think it's going to continue to pull uh the broader Tech market and big Tech higher in 25 and let's not forget the Strategic foresight of Analog Devices which seems to be doing a waltz between organic Investments and tactical m&a Endeavors their dance hints at an accelerating growth trajectory and refined cost management prowess a symphony of elements harmonizing towards a better Competitive Edge does that Intrigue the investor in you does raise questions about what Nvidia is going to do with all that cash that it's bringing in what do you think the best answer would be uh I think uh uh probably return it to shareholders share BuyBacks I mentioned that valuation at 25x I think it's uh quite compelling and so I think that uh that's probably the easiest way they don't need to make any Acquisitions at this point so I think it's probably on that the typical well-traveled path of share BuyBacks dividends we probably will see something along those lines uh in we almost have to in calendar 25 for NVIDIA specifically Jean I'm just looking through your disclosures you don't own Nvidia why not uh personally I don't own Nvidia our firm does deep water does own Nvidia and uh the reason why we own it is uh at the end of the day I think that the obvious trade is still in play here uh I think there's a lot of anticipation that this company's growth is going to slow dramatically but some people even think it may even decline in calendar 26 but as I mention I think that we're still early in the AI buildout phase so that's why deep waterer owns it but you do personally own apple and Tesla why not Nvidia if you are so con if you have such conviction on it um you know I think if I was going to kind of Force rank uh those three I don't do first from just the highest level I I have very few companies in my my personal account so that's I don't think it's necessarily an indictment against Nvidia it's more just related to my conviction around apple and Tesla so apple and Tesla are still your highest conviction stocks because those are the ones you own too yeah for the long term and you know I have the benefit to own things for five plus years you know I think it's worth mentioning we'll get the Tesla numbers here momentarily I do think Tesla is due for a pullback here I mean we've had some incredible of course 700 billion doar in gain over the last three months in the market cap uh that's just not sustainable but I think that what they're doing around AI is is going to ultimately Drive the market cap higher and when it comes to Apple I think the iPhone's going to grow closer to 8% in uh for this coming cycle and the expectations are for 3% so that's where my conviction comes from analysts at the helm like Stein are bullish on nvidia's structural growth and predict it stocks continued outperformance with the Winds of ai's future behind them Nvidia not only sets the stage but also perhaps writes the script for where the industry Heads next but where do you place your bets do nvidia's prospects beckon you or do you spy opportunities with other players in this riveting space share your view
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