Jim Cramer: Nvidia Stock SOARS After Trump Inauguration!

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트럼프 2기 관세 우려 속 과거 1기 무역전쟁 때 S&P500이 금리 인상기에 크게 조정됐고 연준이 완화로 돌아서며 안정됐음을 차트로 설명. 현재 S&P500은 강세 사이클로 13주 이평선 지지가 확인되며 5757 하단이 핵심 지지. 엔비디아는 실적 발표를 앞두고 대만 리스크와 AI 수혜 관점에서 긍정적으로 언급, 애플은 중국 점유율 하락과 밸류에이션 부담으로 약세 전망, 일부 애널리스트의 220달러대 하락 가능성 언급.

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01. Wall Street spent the last week fretting about whether he'll really try to follow through with the less Market friendly aspects of the agenda you know what comes to mind there major import tariffs there's been a lot of speculation if he'll really be able to follow through or maybe this just a negotiating tactic with our trading partners qu the are of the deal or how much damage these plans could do to the global economy and the stock market I say let's put the speculation as side for the moment and think about what we already know because we know how the stock market reacts when the Trump Administration rolls out new tariffs and launches a trade war with China even if that if what we saw in the first term was less aggressive than what he's proposing right now that's why tonight we're going off the charts with the help of Jessica inip the first woman on the act of Traer desk in Fidelity who's now director of investor research at stockbrokers.com as well as the co-host and founder of the market maker podcast because we want to get a better sense of the history here and what it means for the president without any emot involved as markk Twain put it history doesn't repeat itself but it often Rhymes you know I kind of like that more than that Carl Mark line about how history repeats itself versus tragedy than as farce as far as inspt sees it even if history doesn't repeat directly or even rhyme for that matter certainly Echoes so it's worth listening to The Echoes of past Trump tariff actions to find out where we might be headed first take a look at a chart this is a weekly chart of the sp500 from late 2014 through the very beginning of 201 18 now the Obama Administration actually tried to sanction a giese Telco company in 2016 called ZTE briefly prohibiting American companies from selling Goods or service to them without a license but they quickly backed down in response the stock market kept chugging along but once Trump came in we started investigation of China's unfair Trade Practices for technology intellectual property rights then he orders an investigation of Chinese dumping of Steel and aluminum basically they subsidized the stuff and then their producers undercut us on price own manufacturers this has just been a constant pattern by October 2017 the US International Trade Commission was recommending safeguards to protect solar panels from Chinese dumping so you can see this is a period of houseon we pull back from the ZTE but then we go right forward this was all the buildup to the trade war and it didn't seem to have much of an impact on the averages even though the Federal Reserve was gradually raising interest rates during this period Inc says that the sp500 was still in a bullish trading cycle with the 13we 26 we and 40we moving averages trending in the right direction remember she likes these time frames because they represent one one two and three qus respectively and we know we think about Quarters on Wall Street now let's take a look at this next chart check out the action in the S&P from mid 2017 through the very beginning of 2020 this is where we start to get the real tariff action from the first Trump Administration as then is get points out things get a lot more volatile don't they Trump imposed tariffs on steel aluminum Sol panels and washing machines among other Goods all these helped the industries in question but the broader Market didn't like that we were triggering a global trade War sure enough between January 22nd of 2018 okay and December 24th of 2018 the sb500 Lost 18% of its value all right of course some of that's because the FED got much more aggressive about raising interest R this period taking them up up 100 basis points that year but it definitely wasn't just the fit you can see from the chart that virtually every time we got more tariffs the S&P would roll over every time China retaliated we'd sell off so you're looking at this this this this this all right of course once the FED decided to stop tighting at the very end of 2018 the S&P was finally able to find a floor at the 200 uh this is the 200 we moving average you see that's the intersection of the floor the incoming Trump Administration is gearing up to potentially alter the global Commerce landscape and the companies most affected by this happen to be the biggest Nvidia and apple with president-elect Donald Trump at the helm investors find themselves on the edge of their seats reports of sweeping tariffs on several Nations particularly a staggering 60% on China have turned heads and opened a new chapter in the ever evolving Saga of trade relations as the clock ticks down to when these tariffs could be realized all eyes are on Apple and Nvidia grappling with the potential impacts on their business models welcome back to invest ocracy according to insip that catalyzed a bullish trading cycle one that continued until Co hit in 2020 long story short the market couldn't handle the trade War when the Fed was tightening but as soon as the FED started easing well those losses evaporated what does this mean for the present let's take a look at at a weekly chart of the S&B going back to October of 2023 unlike 2017 and 2018 the FED is now our friend creating a much more benign environment for the Bulls okay uh of course we know from back then that Trump use tariffs as a bartering tool with the average of selling off sharply nearly every time some new tariff threat materialized but as soon as the FED stopped tightening okay as soon as it stopped tightening the market stopped reacting as aggressively to the trade War the Fed was in play not the trade War as in sees it something like a trade War can certainly hurt us badly when the Market's already trending bearishly but if we got a bullish trading cycle like we do right now then she's not worried as long as we can make maintain that cycle right now int notes that the sp500 is very much in Bull mode supported by key technical indicators it found a floor of support on Election Day at the 13we moving average trading a short-term rally the 13we 26 we and 40we moving averages are all acting as strong support levels even we get a big breakdown from here incap thinks we have a very strong floor at 5757 as long as that level holds the bullish trading cycle remains intact wow in that case she's betting the S&B can digest the damage from a trade war in large part because the fed's our friend right now when the fed's are friend it's easy for the Bulls to sweep all sorts of negatives including tariffs under the rug finally what about short-term Catalyst all right Kramer fave envidia reports tomorrow after the close so check out the weekly chart of Nvidia going back to October of 2023 pretty dispositive the ramifications of these potential tariffs are multifaceted and intriguing Apple known as a consumer Tech Titan finds itself in a precarious position due to its substantial Reliance on Chinese markets in 2023 alone China accounted for nearly a fifth of Apple's Revenue with iPhones and various other gadgets being churned out in high volumes to meet Global demand if the proposed tariffs come into play the pricing Dynamics for Apple's products could transform drastically concurrently we watch as Nvidia wads through these choppy Waters with resilience unlike Apple nvidia's manufacturing is intricately linked with Taiwan semiconductor and any disruption there could Ripple across Global Supply chains yet nvidia's internal Assurance remains unfaze ste start off with apple losing its top spot at the market in China shipments to the country plunging 177% in 2024 according to research firm Canalis with a whopping 25% drop in just the fourth quarter that was Apple's worst yearly decline ever and put it into third place behind China's Vivo in Huawei the stock falling over three 4% today for its worst day since August it's now lost nearly 9% already in 2025 making it by far the worst performing mag seven stocks so far this year analysts on Wall Street have also been getting a bit more bearish just last week mfet Nathanson issued a rare sell rating on the stock slash its price Target saying Apple could fall another 18% from here the biggest concern there tariffs and with president-elect Donald Trump just a few more days from returning to office could that threat just be starting I guess at the heart of this whole thing is is there more pain ahead you know there's an interesting word in the English language swashbuckler are you familiar with this it's usually associated with a pirates thank you thank you and I think for Moffet Nathanson for example to make a call like that in the midst of what was that's a pretty much a swash buckling move going against sort of being out there right and I sort of admire it I'll say this where we traded down to today right to the moving average but we've seen moves of this magnitude before and I think finally some of the China concerns that I've had and they've been incorrect to have but are starting to come to fruition I think valuation is coming to the Forefront as well so you get through this level then I think the November low of 220s in play and it feels as though it's going to continue to Trend towards those levels seems like there are a lot more question marks about the upgrade cycle and the strength of that upgrade cycle based on AI offerings seeing that there are very few AI offerings that are actually compelling enough for people to pay a lot more money for a new phone bot in so that plus the possibility of of Apple not not necessarily falling into the the crosshairs of ter Ts that we put on China but retaliatory tariffs that China will take on us companies well it would make sense I mean they're one of the largest operators and if you look at that whole greater east region it's about 16% of Revenue so the implications are significant here and from a Topline standpoint you know again you still do have that service business you have a significant install base and as guys pointed out numerous times when you just talk about the passive income uh flows the passive ETF flows apple is always going to be a significant portion the real question is do you want to be overrate versus the S&P do you want to be adding apple as a singular uh Equity holding versus the rest of your portfolio and I think right now going into a situation where one the AI super cycle is not even a factor in China so that that that there is already a reason for them to look for um for local competitors but in terms of them offering something that's a compelling reason for you to pay an upgrade now doesn't really seem to be there and so I would be hesitant to ask but I do think as guys mentioned there is a floor to the price in the short term nvidia's margins may be more than a mere psychological crutch the geopolitical engagement with Taiwan a link Nvidia shares yields unknowns akin to whether Apple's tariff exception history could repeat as these technology behemoths zigzag through impending possibilities it's nvidia's merits that appear to paint a clearer success ah I I I think you're buying weakness in apple and and I think there's nothing about the China market share loss that we haven't been hearing about for a long time this is just happen uh and in the fourth quarter so they were number one actually but they were their sales year-over-year were down 25% for the fourth quarter so the issue is absolutely uh partly the headlines from us China are we getting worse are we ratcheting up but I mean I would have thought in the days of when we were uh you know really putting the screws to to Huawei or xiaomi that China would have already gone after Apple we know they played the long game I I I guess I look at the price of Apple and I understand that the valuation isn't isn't terribly cheap but but when I at least hear about people say well look there's not going to be a real upgrade cycle and there's no real AI I don't see that in the price I don't think there's any really AI dynamic in the price and I think people will continue to refresh and upgrade Apple uh the the hardest part about this trade are not the the headlines today it's that Apple trades at 33 34 times forward and depending on where you believe uh you should put a multiple on their services business and depending on what you think is really the Outlook let's also not forget if you think about the ASP and the Apple phone it's gone higher uh the gross margins have actually held their ground which is nice when you think about China that's you know that ASP is getting harder and harder for a lot of people and the the the domestic competition they're very good phones they're very good phones and they're significantly cheaper and there is a bilocal mentality as the market braces for the realignment of trade policies under Trump's Administration the resulting effect May set off ripples throughout the tech industry and wider economy Nvidia appears poised with a strategically defensive stance leveraging its formidable margins and currently hyperactive demand meanwhile Apple must navigate a more precarious tight RPP balancing on the possibilities their previous tariff exemptions once afforded them what's your play