저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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Chamath은 엔비디아가 과도한 초과이익을 내고 있으나 경쟁자가 이익을 잠식할 것이며, 빅테크 AI 투자(약 220억 달러)가 그에 상응하는 수익을 내려면 대규모 매출(약 450억 달러)이 필요하다고 주장. 현재 AI 앱 대부분은 데모 수준이라 실수요 검증이 부족하다고 평가. 또 S&P500 상위 10개 종목이 지수 시총의 약 40%를 차지하는 집중 리스크를 경고하며 분산투자 필요성을 강조. 엔비디아 실적 발표 후 주가 하락을 언급한 해설도 함께 다룸.
다듬은 글
I think what I would tell you is that the bigger principle and we've talked about this a lot Jason is that in capitalism when you over earn for enough of a time what happens is competitors decide to try to compete away your earnings in the absence of a monopoly the amount of time that you have tends to be small and it shrinks so in the case of a monopoly for example take Google you can over earn for decades and it takes a very very long time for some to try to displace you we're just starting to see the beginnings of that with things like perplexity and other services that are chipping away at the Google Monopoly but at some point in time all of these excess profits are competed away in the case of Nvidia what you're now starting to see is them over earn in a very massive way so the real question is who will step up to try to compete away those profits the old Bezos quote right your margin is my opportunity and I think we're starting to see and you've mentioned grock who had a super viral moment I think this week but you're starting to see the emergence of a more detailed understanding of what this Market actually means and as a result who will compete away the inference Market who will compete away the training market and the economics of that are just becoming known to now more and more people I I would like to tie it together with friberg's point so at some point all of this spend has to make money right otherwise you're you're going to look really foolish for having spent 20 and 30 and 40 billion so Nick if you just go back to the to the revenue slide of Nvidia I can try to give you a framing of this at least the way that I think about it so if if you look at this like what you're talking about is look who is going to spend $22.1 billion well you said it Jason it's all a big Tech why because they have that money on the balance sheet sitting idle but when you spend $22 billion their investors are going to demand a rate of return on that and so if you think about what a reasonable rate of return is call it 30 40 50% and then you factor in and that's profit and then you factor in all of the other things that need to support that that $22 billion of spend needs to generate probably $45 billion of Revenue and so Jason the question to your point and to fried Brook's Point The $64,000 Question is who in this last quarter is going to make 45 billion on that 22 billion of spend and again what I would tell you to be really honest about this is that what you're seeing is more about big companies musling people around with their balance sheet and being able to go to Nvidia and say I will give you committed pre purchases over the next three or four quarters and less about here is a product that I'm shipping that actually makes money which I need need enormous more compute resources for it's not the lad most of the apps the overwhelming majority of the apps that we're seeing in AI today are toy apps that are run as proofs of concept and demos and run in a sandbox it is not production code this is not we've rebuilt the entire autopilot system for the Boeing and it's now run with agents and Bots and all of this training that's not what's happening so it is a really important question today the demand is clear it's the big guys with huge gobs of money and by the way Nvidia is super smart to take it because they can now forecast demand for the next two or three quarters I think we still need to see the next big thing and if you look in the past what the past that showed you it's the big guys don't really invent the new things that make a ton of money it's the new guys who because they don't have a lot of money and they have to be a little bit more industrious come up with something really authentic and new yeah constraint makes for great art yeah we haven't seen that yet so I think the revenue scale will continue for like the next two or three years probably for NVIDIA but the real question is what is the terminal value and it's the same thing that saak showed in that Cisco slide people ultimately realized that the value was going to go to other parts of the stack the application layer and as more and more money was aced at the application layer of the internet less and less Revenue multiple and credit was given to Cisco and that's nothing against Cisco because their revenue continued to compound right and they did an incredible job but the valuation got cut in recent weeks the financial world has been a buzz with startling Revelations that have left even the most seasoned investors reeling billionaire investor shth Palapa a name synonymous with ground Unbreaking insights and unbiased analysis has sounded an alarm regarding the hidden risks nestled within the once trusted Bedrock of our portfolios ETFs speaking on X poopaa insights have drawn the attention of investors far and wide both amateur and professional calling attention to a brewing storm involving the top 10 powerhouses of the S and p500 from notable Tech behemoths like apple and Microsoft to the venerable Financial Titans such as broadcom Inc and birkshire hathway these entities wield an almost Peerless influence is it time to reassess the very fabric of our investment strategies as potential volatility Looms on the horizon welcome back everyone to invest ocracy shares of Nvidia are trading lower after reporting a beat for the third quarter but joining us now is ozat deodoran he is a professor of finance and he's known as the dean of valuation at the NYU Stern School of Business he is also an Nvidia shareholder Professor it's great to have you on do you want to get your initial reaction to these results uh and what it means for the valuation of Nvidia even as Revenue has almost doubled since a year ago that's a scary thought right I mean you you deliver a 94% growth in Revenue 75% gross margins 62% operating margin that's an amazing company and you you you lose 4% of your market value tells you how much the expectations game on Nvidia has been ramped up it's they don't just have to beat analyst they got to beat them by 10% and I think investors are also increasingly focused on the guidance that Nvidia is offering and the negative reaction I think is coming from the sobering of that guidance which is I think Invidia is trying to bring investors down for a soft Landing bringing expectations down but it's going to be painful every earnings report you're going to see more of this phenomenon play out of them beating the numbers but still seeing the stock price go down in the heart of the financial Cosmos the atmosphere was El and saturated with tension as chamath Palapa delivered a compelling Exposition against the seemingly unyielding Allure of ETFs his argument laid bare a critical risk that many have overlooked for far too long the overwhelming clout of The Magnificent 7 and other heavyweight stocks dominating the SNP 500 Index it was on an unassuming Sunday afternoon that his post on X Drew an alarmingly Vivid mental picture Envision a small cluster of large cap companies controlling a staggering 40% % of the entire index's market capitalization this scenario is as if 10 passengers on an airplane have unprecedented command steering the course of the fligh how much of this phenomenon around Nvidia stock is company specific with investors versus uh a reflection of more risk on appetite in the market more liquidity coming into the market and investors just being more excited about big growth stories in general it's not an or it's both the fact that that investors are feeling good about stocks that Equity risk premiums are down that they feel that they can buy stocks at a higher price is helping but I think the a great deal of this is company specific I mean near at $2.2 trillion do in market cap over the course of a year I mean that's that that that's mind-blowing in terms of the the additional market cap created I do think though that there's a disconnect emerging here between what companies are spending on the architecture of AI and I think you're previous guest mentioned it and the revenues are actually generating from AI products and services and that's going to increasingly come into focus in future quarters supporting this narrative was Kevin Gordon from Charles Schwab who reinforced this observation with a detailed yet disturbing graphic evoking the parallel of an airplane's delicate balance that could falter should too many passengers abruptly shift to one side joining the discourse venture capitalist Spencer hakimian offered a ray of Hope with the mention of equal weight ETFs however these financial instruments are not devoid of their own complications they come with hidden cost burdens akin to excess baggage fees incurred when traveling due to rebalancing and tax liabilities the numbers often seen as incontrovertible evidence tell an unvarnished story The spyer s&p500 ETF trust has ascended by an impressive 25.8 n% this year in stark contrast to the Invesco S&P 500 equal weight etf's modest 11.9 4% gain the information technology sector while remaining the Crown Jewel among top constituents casts a long Shadow over the plight of midsized Enterprises struggling for prominence the stakes in this financial Saga have never been higher unraveling like a classic suspense thriller that compels even seasoned investors to ponder their next strategic maneuvis reminds me in a way of the argument against buying Apple in 2018 oh well there's Samsung out there well how many more people can you sell a phone this expensive margins have to eventually come down but it's up something like 4X uh you know above the high levels of that year at what point can you and I mean you specifically buy a stock like viia after it's been on the run that it's been on under the idea that it's just so unique it can go much higher still no I I think that it is unique it is in a market where it controls the market the problem is the market itself might be hitting a stress point because if you don't get the I mean ultimately Invidia revenues are cost to some of company so those costs have to be covered with products and services that those companies sell and right now at least from what I'm hearing from those companies delivering on AI products and services is turning out to be more difficult than they thought and that's going to eventually have to show up in them buying fewer chips as the curtain eventually Drew to a close on this enlightening exploration the investment Community found itself standing at a critical Crossroads the implications of the central message were profound and clear a nuanced understanding of the depth and ramifications of concentration within the SNP 500 is no longer just a Savvy maneuver but an necessity for those with aspirations of securing long-term gains embracing the principles of diversification May emerge as the hero of this unfolding drama the undeniable Allure of the Magnificent Seven captivates yet Prudence Whispers words of caution a sentiment akin to realizing that behind any magnificent Skyline the strength of its foundations matters most with emerging forecasts hinting at inevitable potential volatility the stock market finds itself teetering on the brink of what could be a transformative Journey this moment in time is a claran call for investors to reflect deeply strategize astutely and consider participating in the ongoing conversation what is your perspective on the impending path for formidable Market Giants compared to the robust Collective Strength of Diversified indice
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