저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적이 압도적이라 주가가 과거 대비 싸졌다고 주장. 블랙웰·AI 인프라 수요 폭발로 데이터센터 전력·메모리(마이크론)·광통신 관련주 수혜 언급. 엔비디아 고객사(MS·메타·아마존·테슬라) 주가 하락은 수요 우려가 틀렸다는 근거로 해석. 휴머노이드 로봇·agentic AI 등 신규 성장 동력 강조.
다듬은 글
Nvidia's earnings strike last night is opening a wide gap between it and the rest of the field. The numbers are staggering for a company that only a few people had even heard of. Two years ago its market cap was just 500 billion. Last quarter Nvidia booked 35 billion in revenue, with net income of 20 billion and a 75% gross margin. Those numbers are preposterously great. It's a spectacular ramp-up.
A year ago, many critics claimed Nvidia was absurdly expensive, trading at 50 times forward earnings. People laughed at me for championing what seemed like an overvalued semiconductor stock. But when you look at the actual numbers, a year ago Nvidia was really only trading at 20 times forward earnings. That's how incredible these results were. In retrospect, it was cheap, cheap, cheap. That's what happens when a company outruns the estimates. As I've told you repeatedly, Nvidia has been outrunning the estimates for a decade. Super expensive? No, perfectly reasonable. That's the stock, and it's why I've loved it for so long.
How do they do it? Nvidia is rolling not one but two balls down the lane. One is accelerated computing, and the other is artificial intelligence. It's all happening because CEO Jensen Huang and his team may be the best bowlers of all time, figuratively speaking.
This morning on Squawk on the Street, my fabulous partner Carl Quintanilla started the show by asking what I thought about Nvidia's quarter. At the time the stock was down a buck or two, and I was muted. I was clinical. I didn't want to hype a stock I've championed to the point of ridicule. But then I sat back and paused for a moment, which is not my strong suit, and I said that frankly I've never seen anything like what's happening at Nvidia. Never. Even though the stock was down despite 19 firms raising their price targets this morning, I said this stock simply isn't capturing the seismic shift that's happening here. Nvidia is disrupting everything we know about business. There are only so many superlatives when it comes to demand for their technology. We've heard it called insane. We've heard it called enormous. Last night, the results were staggering.
In a market where innovation reigns supreme, investors are buzzing over a revolutionary event poised to reshape the technology giants. Picture a company drawing comparisons to Apple's monumental iPhone debut. We're talking about Nvidia, a trailblazer in AI infrastructure grabbing headlines and investor interest with its skyrocketing stock. Industry experts draw parallels with tech behemoths of the past. Nvidia's prowess in AI is likened to Apple's iPhone era.
I think even Jensen is struggling for analogies at this point. When he was talking about one use of the latest and greatest chip, Blackwell, for OpenAI, he said it was something completely new, like the iPhone. We think the iPhone is a once-in-a-lifetime invention, but when you go through the Nvidia call, you realize the iPhone may be small by comparison. In the end, that was a single device, no matter how revolutionary. Chips are remaking the world as we know it. There's a trillion dollars' worth of computing power that needs to be replaced by Nvidia. There are trillions of dollars in factories that need to be built with Nvidia Omniverse. There are trillions that can be saved in legal work, forecasting, supply chain management, engineering, and most of all coding, where you can speak to the machine and tell it what to do in plain English rather than a programming language. Trillions are to be made in humanoids. Elon Musk plans to give everybody a humanlike robot to do the dirty work, the drone stuff. It's positively Shakespearean. I've been thinking maybe it's Jensen's world and all the men and women are merely players.
Going back to the more prosaic bowling analogy, this quarter was so earth-shaking that it caused whole sectors to fly in different directions. On the positive side, Jensen made it clear that we don't have enough power now to handle all the demand from these machines. That sends power producers like Constellation Energy and Vistra flying. It bolsters the case for data center plays, meaning Vertiv and Eaton, the picks and shovels of the data center. Jensen also mentioned some memory shortages, perhaps related to high-bandwidth chips. That's Micron, ticker MU, which I've been waiting for to roar. Optical products, which are the backbone plumbing, get a shout-out, so those stocks jump. These are all classic pinball action.
To truly grasp the powerhouse that is Nvidia today, one must look at its impressive journey and the strategies fortifying its current ascent. The speculation around Nvidia isn't merely media hype. It's backed by significant numbers and strategic maneuvers that are reshaping the technology landscape. Investor Ross Gerber doesn't mince words when likening Jensen Huang's chip empire to Apple, emphasizing the astronomical potential in Nvidia's AI infrastructure. Consider this: a staggering 30 billion in retail investor inflows this year alone makes Nvidia the darling of retail investors. In 2024, that's no small feat in a market fraught with uncertainty and fluctuation. Nvidia isn't just thriving. It's soaring. Its stock has surged 181% year to date.
Investors envision Nvidia as more than a tech company. It's a cornerstone of the future digital economy. The narrative also brings into focus Nvidia's strategic ventures into robotics. Picture AI-powered robots running on Nvidia's chips, transforming industries. It's not just speculation, it's strategy.
I want you to write this down, because you're going to hear it over and over again, so be ready. It's called "agentic," a new word for a whole new form of computing where you have agents in your organization powered by Nvidia. Salesforce, among others, got a big shout-out. Marc Benioff, CEO of Salesforce, has been talking about Agentforce, a product capable of creating billions of agents.
What does it mean? Let me give you an example. Today I wanted to speak to a doctor about the results of a test I took Monday. I called and got the usual automated recorded idiot who knows nothing about me, with four different choices that I had to hear repeated because I went too fast. Then I pressed two to speak to someone who might be remotely related to the person I wanted, but they weren't. So I got back in the queue and pressed three, and finally reached a human, but it was the wrong woman, who transferred me to the right person. She wrote down my number but didn't get my name, and I never got a call back.
In the agentic world, I call and an agent answers. It knows my name, and because it recognizes my number, it pulls up my record and asks if I want to speak to the doctor I saw earlier in the week. I'd say yes, and it would ask for a detailed message to pass along to the doctor. If I had a question it could answer on its own, because it has all the information it needs to handle frequently asked questions, it would answer it. That's agentic conversational AI, all powered by Nvidia.
Advanced Micro Devices, AMD, might peer over its shoulder nervously as Nvidia stakes its claim in the competitive AI chip sector. This is more than a fiscal duel. It's a technological arms race. Nvidia's valuation, now marching past $3 trillion and neck and neck with Apple, is a testament not just to its growth but to its strategy, a strategy thrust forward by the AI boom.
Jokes aside, this isn't a casual buy-low, sell-high scenario. The company's foray into humanoid robotics through partnerships with firms like Figure AI signals a quantum leap into what's being called physical AI. Key suppliers like TSMC and its peers are ramping up production capacity to keep pace with surging AI chip demand, which vividly illustrates the supply chain dynamics at play. Their new factory in Kumamoto, Japan, planning to reach operational capacity by late 2025, is more than an industrial expansion. It's an anticipatory chess move toward an unfolding AI-centric future.
Let me add a bit of downside, because it's kind of amusing. On a huge update, Microsoft is down $1.79, Meta is down $2.43, Amazon fell $4.50, and Tesla lost $2.39. Why? Because these are Nvidia's biggest customers. For almost a year we've heard the canard that spending on Nvidia chips couldn't last, that demand couldn't continue, that there would be oversupply. Those are a pack of lies. Demand is accelerating because the payoff is so great. According to Jensen, for every dollar their customers put in, they make five. That means they have no choice but to buy Nvidia chips, because they need to stay relevant in Jensen's world. So forget the idea that Nvidia is about to hit a wall. The strike we saw last night may just be the early frames. We may be witnessing nothing short of a turkey, a hambone, a bratwurst, or even a six-bagger. That's right: three, four, five, or even six strikes in a row. A lot of frames, a lot of game.
Here's the bottom line. I never thought I'd say this, but I too am out of superlatives. What's happening in video is so positive that it defies description. As the curtain draws on today's insights, Nvidia stands not only as a company but as a symbol of innovation in the digital age, bridging imagination with possibility. The strides Nvidia is making today echo a corporate narrative poised to redefine the market and technological ideation in the years ahead. For potential investors, Nvidia's stock isn't just a statistic. It's a story of transformation set against the backdrop of an AI revolution. Amid volatile markets, Nvidia's growth forecast reveals a hue of optimism, with substantial groundwork laid for a continued trajectory. Buoyed by market forecasts predicting exponential growth, and currently basking in its noteworthy valuation, Nvidia solidifies its position as a pillar of present and future markets driven by AI and computational advances. Invest cautiously, some might say, but none can deny the allure of participating in a venture this grand. As Nvidia continues its groundbreaking journey, where do you envision yourself in this digital mosaic?
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