저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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엔비디아 vs 브로드컴 경쟁 논쟁. 브로드컴 커스텀 AI칩 매출 성장 전망(2027년 600~900억달러)과 하이퍼스케일러 수요 강세로 AI 투자 사이클은 길게 간다는 주장. 엔비디아는 AI 가속기 시장 80~95% 점유, 완전한 제로섬은 아니라는 입장. 일부 출연자는 엔비디아가 최근 상대 부진하나 여전히 리더라고 평가. 주장 근거는 hyperscaler capex 증가와 2027년까지 투자 지속 전망.
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no look I I think that we're in one of those periods where people are saying we got to reassess uh who really are the winners who are not the winners uh the broadcom numbers on Friday it they were sounding the the gain that we had made people think well wait wait a second maybe broadcom's the right one now more the Outlook Jim wasn't it wasn't the numbers themselves no the out was amazing talking about 2027 though well that's a long-term view because they have a clear window Matt Murphy last night on Mad Money martech saying the same thing I think that there is some confusion uh if you asked Matt Murphy which I did about where does Nvidia stand he goes look nvidia's still the number one it's just that there's room for everybody they don't necessarily uh broadcom does not necessarily displace Nvidia bcom is part of Nvidia so is Marvel it depends on who you're using Marvel is Amazon web services these big hyperscalers have decided you know what we have one we want one GPU company which is NVIDIA and then we need to have custom silicon which burns less hot and is cheaper so they're three they're not Zero Sum however I think there are people who say you know what I got to get off this horse it's going down there is not much more to it David you have to wait GTC I had similar conversations this morning in fact not a zero sum game look at that I did not speak to his no we did not talk we talk to we don't we make sure not to talk to the same people do I had no idea W that's pretty impressive can I show you mine and the whole idea again is that capex is going up across the board and continues to from the hyperscalers obviously the numbers the numbers we've discussed are astonishing billions upon billions hundreds of billions really and that won't change as well so so why is NVIDIA no longer I don't it's hard to say no longer why is up huge all right right it's up huge it's had an incredible year it's for six months do you wait until they really start shipping Blackwell in you know in Earnest speak I think you wait till look I know no one's going to want to hear this and I you know I love the stock but the next B M the if they don't think that now there a lot of people thought that Amazon's got the but o God I have the blocking tackling B weeks righto even people didn't realize that broadcom was in every tick signifies a new opportunity or a lurking threat the Spotlight has recently shifted to a riveting Arena the semiconductor industry this sector known for its rapid technological advancements and high stakes gambles is currently witnessing a fierce rivalry between Titans like Nvidia and broadcom as the tempo of competition accelerates in the domain of AI accelerators the industry finds itself at a Crossroads intriguingly broadcom seems to have gained an edge with ambitious strategies aimed at Conquering the custom AI chip market for shareholders and investors however this raises a critical question is NVIDIA facing an existential threat or is this simply another twist in the world of tech Investments welcome back everyone to invest stracy are are you in the kind of everybody can win camp here or is nvidia's kind of um moment as the most important stock in the market over yeah thanks for having me on Kelly so I think if you look at uh Nvidia and broadcom we like both both have been topics for us and both have done well this this year I would say valuation wise they're about the same but I would say Nvidia is very well owned everybody has Nvidia they are the King on AI side they dominate the market they almost running at 100 billion annually in data center revenues broadcom on the other hand is just starting to put up massive numbers now I think we like the name we have a huge ramp coming up over the next two years it's very under own people were cautious go heading into earnings and so we think there is probably some more legs left to the Run given that much less owned than Nvidia for broadcast right so you know was writing about it the other day and a lot of people said I had no idea you know about broadcom so you're right it's going to take a little while to penetrate the Consciousness maybe that's a Tailwind what about Nvidia yeah I think Nvidia will do very well I think what we saw in the last two weeks is a little bit more uh I would say you know people getting excited around Quantum compute and so you saw a little bit of a softening on the on on Nvidia and a little bit some the focus mov the quantum computing name so that said I think Nvidia is still you know the leader on the AI Side by far they dominate 90% plus of that market and that's a market that's growing 90 billion 100 billion this year going to almost 160 billion plus next year so massive market for every and they dominate that so we can like the name I think might be a little bit of a fce uh but not a name to be let go I think this is this is going to be a huge thing for 2025 Nvidia with its high performance gpus has steadfastly dominated the AI accelerator sector consistently holding an impressive 80% to 95% market share yet the market ever fickle and volatile has recently caught wind of broadcom advancing into novel territories known for its prowess in the semiconductor space broadcom has built an esteemed reputation through its development of application specific integrated circuits the excitement surrounding asex is rooted not in speculation but in substantial ties with industry giants like alphabet meta platforms and potentially bite dance in simple terms asex are highly specialized chips designed to execute AI tasks at lightning speed a true Boon in today's digital age what's truly eye-catching is broadcom's projection a leap in custom AI chip revenue from 12.2 billion in 2024 to a staggering 60 to 90 billion by 2027 if these numbers don't send a thrill through the financial Community consider this Broad has also hinted at onboarding two additional hyperscalers by 2027 thus bolstering its growth Ambitions further while the identities of these prospective partners are shrouded in mystery speculation abounds with apple and open AI being likely contenders raising anticipation and strategic Stakes to unprecedented level I think that um you know when broadcom reported in hawt you know outlined the vision for custom silicon uh that was a change statement in the Market appreciating uh how the world is led by and dominated by Nvidia but that there's also a rising tide here for custom silicon uh that will help uh the likes of broadcom and Marvel as they support uh in broadcom's case you know Google meta uh Tik Tock and and in Marvel's case uh Amazon and Microsoft so you know there's definitely uh different spots for the different kind of areas of silicon but you know at a very high level uh as you think about Nvidia going into their uh best product cycle uh in the history of the company with Blackwell uh you know it's hard to not you know think of them uh as the the top outperformer for all of semis in 2025 despite all of what was said previously Nvidia is hardly on the back foot despite broadcom's promising advancements complexities lie beneath the surface developing as6 is no small feet these are not your average processors but intricate costly undertakings with each chips design costing upwards of $500 million as reported by CNBC broadcom can profitably Venture into these depths only with Partners possessing massive data center capacities such as Google and Amazon broadcom's bspoke tailored approach stands in contrast to nvidia's versatile all-encompassing Solutions enriched by an ecosystem offering comprehensive software tools and pre trained models moreover Bank of America's insights suggest that nvidia's grip on the market remains unyielding projecting it will still command a 75% share by 2030 nvidia's adaptability entrenched Market presence and positive perception from Wall Street maintain investor confidence at buoyant levels predictions indicate an annual earnings growth rate soaring by 34% through fiscal 2027 painting Nvidia as perhaps the tortoise in a fabled race steadily Paving its way to Future triumphs while broadcom appears to Sprint ahead how do we know how long the cycle is and and how many quarters we could see growth like this how does it compare to other previous semiconductor Cycles well this cycle is unlike any other um you know I I think most uh investors look back to the Advent of the internet uh and how long kind of the the internet infrastructure investment cycle played out but this one's very different right where the companies that are making the Investments predominantly the hyperscalers you know they're generating meaningful free cash flow despite you know spending hundreds of billions of dollars building out Ai and and let's be clear this is ex existential for these companies as they all try to get to AGI uh and so I think this is a multi-year investment cycle and you know just on Friday open AI uh released uh 03 uh and uh this model is uh incredibly um important in the sense of of the improvements that they're making the reasoning that they're using so it's post-training reasoning where the more compute you apply to the large language model the better the outcome and really the big takeaway is that it's driving even incrementally more compute requirements to get to AGI so the short answer you know I think investors are going to be surprised by the magnitude and duration uh of the investment in AI uh and I absolutely believe that you know if there is a pause for NVIDIA the first we would see it would be 2027 and if I'm right with that assumption then there's clear a line of sight for growth um for the top AI accelerator companies so Nvidia you know broadcom marvel I would say the key arms dealers underneath that you know whether it's tsmc or arm or you know semi equipment players or test companies like advantest uh and pteridine um so I I think this AI investment cycle really has legs as we navigate the swirling currents of semiconductor Evolution Nvidia stands resilient a testament to Innovation and sustained strength while broadc bold initiatives Mark a spirited foray into the custom AI chip realm it's nvidia's comprehensive GPU ecosystem that endures propelling it ahead in this ongoing Marathon analysts Express unwavering confidence in nvidia's ability to maintain a commanding market share booed by its formidable strengths and pioneering spirit for astute investors nvidia's current trajectory presents a compelling case with projected earnings growth offering a narrative of promise and potential profitability in the midst of this riveting Saga between two semiconducting Titans the unfolding story provides a fertile ground for informed investment decisions engaging with the dynamic progression of these industry Giants offers not only a chance to ponder today's technology landscape but also an opportunity to envisage the headlines of tomorrow as this digital race for Supremacy unfolds where do you stand are you ready to cast your lot with the vanguards of Technology's future or will you stand as a spectator a waiting the next wave of innov
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