저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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2025년 로봇·자율하드웨어가 핵심 테마가 될 것이라 주장하며 Unitree 등 로봇 사례를 소개함. 엔비디아는 AI 인프라 수요로 상승 여력이 있다고 봄. 달러 스테이블코인 사용이 2025년 핵심 트렌드이며 비자·마스터카드 독점을 위협할 것으로 전망. 다른 진행자는 엔비디아가 단기 모멘텀 약화 상태이나 장기 펀더멘털은 유효하다고 분석하고 브로드컴·마벨 등 커스텀 칩 기업에 관심을 표명.
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biggest business winner for 2025 what's your prediction so I feel like we're at a really interesting inflection point that is going to make 2025 the year of autonomous Hardware or robotics if 2024 was the year of kind of compute buildout and the roll out of AI systems in software I think 2025 will be the year of the robot you know there's a company I we just placed an order today actually out of China called unry Gavin have you looked at this company yeah it's pretty wild actually it's an incredible business incredible product so their go2 robot is $1600 has an API here it is you can run a payload on it it's got lar on it it's got kind of intelligence guidance systems on it this is the robot system that was used on some of those videos we looked at earlier this year where there were machine guns mounted to the back and it was basically a new kind of field sold J autonomous field Soldier but really you can use it in scientific applications we're looking at using them in our uh on our on our test Farms where it can wander the farm and take images and Report data back to us and it's such a low cost at like less than $3,000 you can do some incredible things with it so this business just raised a couple hundred million dollars last month from Mostly Chinese investors to Chinese company and I think that there's going to be you know other similar type businesses you know kind of takes a long time for things to work and then all of a sudden they happen f faster than you could have ever imagined I think this is going to be the year where we're all going to look at humanoid robots and autonomous systems and be like oh my God I can't believe this is here um so this could be the year Choice such a great strong choice for the biggest winner and I think the quote you're looking for is how did you go bankrupt slowly and then all at once that's how these technology changes and man I would love to have one of these for the ranch to just run around and do the perimeter security sorry Nick pull up the you guys got to watch this if you haven't seen it Nick find the video of the go2 with the wheels on it U managing and everyone thought this was a BS video that it was like CGI wasn't real it was AI generated but like this thing is just incredible here it is this is a real video of this thing yeah and it could learn from an llm too right like a large language model could teach it how to do something yeah Gavin is this real like what's your real yeah yeah I want to get the G1 which is their humanoid robot yeah so pull up the humanoid it's really cool yeah yeah yeah I mean $166,000 is the cost of a used Prius let's be honest that's in spitting distance of being affordable here's the G look at this thing 16 Grand and this thing you can you know you can basically command it to do things for you in your house or in your factory or in your workplace no come on I knew you would do it oh come I was gonna say maybe we could get a poker dealer maybe B you know I wonder if this thing could deal cards open wine do you guys remember that robot that was on stage for our all-in Holiday Spectacular so my my brother made an observation he said as soon as that robot came out it's like everyone just wanted to abuse it he's like humans have this very interesting nature where like the robot emerges and all that humans want to do is like hurt the robot it's like a very strange revelation of human behavior yeah like it just it's like oh here's something I could dominate here's something I can tell it we're so threaten by it we want to make sure that we're the top of the spee here and it doesn't feel like it's going to be for much longer I mean these things will kick our ass pretty soon anyway these things are amazing I think this is going to be the year of the robots my year of the robots is your prediction I love it uh Gavin what do you got profoundly agree I think year of the robots um inclusive of FSD you know I think FSD works today and it's GNA it's it's going to cross into mainstream adoption where I already notice particularly if I'm taking an Uber late night I really really prefer to have a Tesla just sometimes you get an Uber driver who's who's tired and I just feel a lot safer if they have the FSD running and then obviously using it for yourself is amazing but I think it's going to continue compounding at an accelerating rate I think the in a lot of ways what i' would say broadly is I think for a while it's going to be big businesses are winners big businesses that use AI thoughtfully and the reason is is that with what is happening what what 03 showed us open a eyes new model combination of reasoning and test time compute like I think you're if you're a big business and you can pay a million dollars to let an AI think for six weeks about the most important question for your business that's going to be a profound Advantage relative to small businesses that can't afford that and by the way we are the other like inference compute is going to be the the kind of derivative winner of that we're going to run out of gpus accelerators compute in 2025 the same way we did in 23 okay so you're also long Nvidia and chipmakers Gro Etc because we're finding new uses for all that compute absolutely okay very good Nvidia the semiconductor Titan has been Making Waves in the stock market skyrocketing with a staggering 171% gain in 2024 alone leaving investors both amazed and hesitant on January 6th nvidia's shares surged by an additional 9% dwarfing the S&P 500's progress for the year and prompting an almost viral level of intrigue among Market efficient Autos yet beneath the surface of this phenomenal rally lies a pressing question is nvidia's current stock valuation a doorway to new opportunities or a looming hurdle for investors welcome back to invest ocracy the biggest business winner of 2025 are going to be dollar denominated stable coins oh I'll make two points in 2024 two critical things happened the first is that stable coins essentially became uncoupled from crypto volatility and it started to be used for wholesale useful functions in running businesses and there's an image here that starts to show that so independent of crypto volatility what you saw were stable coin usage just rising up and to the right that's an incredibly important decoupling that happened in 2024 the second and this data is still just trickling in but it's an incredible stat stablecoin usage at the end of the second quarter of 2024 was about 1.1 billion transactions that summed to 8.5 trillion do of transaction volum if you compare that to Visa over the same period it was more than double Visa's transaction volume so I think what we have now is some something that has fundamentally crossed a point of no return similar to how last year I thought that the big Trend was going to be Bitcoin in 2024 I would say that the big Trend in 25 is stable coin usage I think we're going to finally attack the duopoly of visa and MasterCard I think you're going to see an inal number of use cases that sit and use stable coin rails I think when Donald Trump becomes president I think you're going to see him go after incredibly High credit card transactions and costs you're already seeing cracks in consumer credit anyways because of these high aprs all of this stuff is going to come to a head in 2025 I think and I think stable coins could quadruple or quintuple by the end of 25 I think it's just going to be an enormous Market great choice should they be regulated Cham we at some of these Congressional hearings tether was kind of dragged for being the primary transfer and and monetary tool for terrorism for getting around sanctions and for human trafficking should it be regulated and how I I don't think I'm qualified to say how it should but I think the point is that there are these immutable logs that sit in between and on either side of all of these transactions and so I think the knowledge is there and there are a whole bunch of third party services that add that intelligence layer I think the the thing to really question is if you just took 300 basis points of drag yes out of the global economy massive gain how valuable would that be and I think it would be valuable just in the United States alone to the tune of a trillion dollars so the idea that you wouldn't do it at this point is somewhat quizzical to me so I just think that the economic justification for this now is just so profound data center Revenue a core component of nvidia's success saw an astronomical 112% year-over-year increase fueling the company's momentum with the same Vigor as ai's burgeoning demand CEO Jensen hang expressed the dynamic shift underway in an earnings call noting the age of AI is in full steam this sentiment resounds with Investments bubbling globally from Enterprises enhancing workflows to Nations prioritizing AI as a Cornerstone of infrastructure recent analysis and investor sentiment have reflected prevailing optimism tempered with caution the Market's cyclical nature serves as a backdrop where Nvidia though unrivaled now must continually outrun Rivals to keep descent at Bay investing in Nvidia stocks might feel like betting on a cosmic race where even Stellar performers face gravitational pull um Nvidia is trying to get a bounce back after the route that it had yesterday that was the worst day in months for the stocks in September CES now in in the rear view how am I thinking about trades like that today yeah no so I I mean obviously for NVIDIA I think the the big thing for me as a as forget about CEs for a second um the last six months has been relatively flat for NVIDIA right there hasn't really been a seismic move there um you know there there was a lack of not necessarily Innovation talk but what is the here and now you know what what is what's going to happen in in the year term and I think that was you know somewhat of a let down you know and that and that's why the stock kind of traded lower you know but when I think about semis broadly I start to think about and I continue to love the Nvidia story but we're hearing from the hyperscalers we're hear about hearing more about them developing their own chips their proprietary chips so I start to broaden out my scope in the in the semispace and start to think about some of the um you know companies like broadc comp companies like marll that are doing custom uh made chips that I think that th those names could kind of get get a nice run here coming in the you know over the next couple quarters so for me I don't think I don't think that the tech trade is is disrupted terribly I just think that um you know CES was a little bit of a downer if I could on invid I said the other day um that I believe that the keynote address would lead to a new all-time high check the box got the new all-time high that's not me patting myself on the back cuz guess what no follow through history well see in conclusion Nvidia stands at an intriguing Crossroads where its current position hints at both exceptional potential and inherent risks Savvy investors weigh nvidia's continued expansion and dominance against semiconductor industry's cyclical cyclicity knowing that valuations as high as these often invite volatility the present state of Nvidia portrays a Powerhouse addressing ai's insatiable appetite with projections sketching a promising trajectory though speculative Shadows dance across the exuberance Nvidia still commands investment conversations with the Allure of its unmatched technological strid last year goes to CES he you know gives his keynote and the stock goes up and in the subsequent two days it goes up more and it stays up so you you know it was sort of telegraphed that the stock was going to go up it did into the event but it didn't stay there didn't stay there you didn't get the follow through and let's kind of walk through that and explain how I think the viewers need to manage or shape the risk surrounding yesterday's move it's very rare to see a stock trade to an all-time intraday high and then close challenging the 50-day moving average you can't ignore that that that has significance I think that there also was an element that you have to acknowledge that Nvidia despite all its strong fundamentals the stock has been gamified when you have all these ETFs that are double levered and you have exposure of algorithms participating I think a lot of that contributed to what you saw yesterday so if you're a buyer up at 150 or if you're a buyer up near those intraday highs you have to take a look at where prices today and understand the momentum in the near term is down and I know that's that's not something that is normally said because most people say okay and Jim crram is Right own Nvidia as a core holding don't trade around it but there are a lot of people that are trading around Nvidia there's a lot of tactical elements surrounding Nvidia and let's just acknowledge that what I expected to happen did not it happen and now the momentum is rolled over you've got negative momentum in the near term it doesn't wash away the long-term strong fundamentals of this company and the belief that you want to own it for the long term and it will make a new alltime high at some point in the future as you mull over whether to dive deeper into Nvidia or perch on the ledge Ponder the unfolding Narrative of innovation and growth will Nvidia continue to ascend and redefine the tech landscape or will its valuation become a delicate balance on the financial tight RPP
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