저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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Cramer는 GLP-1 약물 확산이 가공식품 수요를 줄여 식품주에 타격을 줄 수 있다고 봤지만, 반도체가 더 안전하다고 언급. 엔비디아는 조정 중이나 AI 인프라 지출은 유지될 것으로 보고, 200일 이평선 부근 지지 확인 후 매수 가능성을 언급. 마이크론 NAND 부진을 나쁜 신호로 지적하면서도 AI 관련 반도체는 긍정적으로 평가. 엔비디아 시총 4조 달러 도달 가능성과 Blackwell 생산 확대에 대해 낙관적 관점 제시. 포지션은 축소 후 소폭 추가 매수 중이라고 밝힘.
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there's a definitive drop in processed food sales in this country and it is being linked to these gop-1 drugs first and backr in the middle of last year a wave of fear came over the food group these gop-1 from Eli Lilly and Nova nordis were viewed as grim reapers slashing Ernies wherever they went we figured food sales would come down then ernes for supermarkets could get hurt and at one point at the height of fear an analyst tried to assess the impact on Aerospace and Airlines if more people got thin it all got pretty darn fanciful and especially event eventually rationality returned along with buyers for pretty much everything now the esteria is over but maybe there was real cause for concern this Cornell study that I like so much took a look at use patterns and concluded that I'm going to quote here households with at least one gop-1 user reduced groceries pending by approximately 6% within 6 months of adoption end quote the study goes on to say quote given an average monthly grocery expenditure of $630 this translates to an annual reduction of $416 per adopter end quote hey that is big money for most Americans the GOP just1 drugs also reduce food consumed away from home with breakfast spending declining by nearly 4% dinner down 6% fast food particularly hard hit I think you might see something about this when grocery chain Albertson's reports next Wednesday at the very least the supermarkets management should have to address this report's findings but it's the packaged food companies themselves that have the most to fear as report comments quote companies that rely heavily on calor oric D processed or indulgent foods are likely to face declining demand and need to reassess their product portfolio to remain competitive and quote in fact the Cornel report directly positives that sales weakness from Craft HS and Campbell might be attributed to the GOP Des ones according to the report the food companies can protect themselves by changing package sizes offering smaller portions producing foods that are healthier more convenient I think it makes sense but in the end these companies are all about processed foods come on it's awfully hard for them to change your stripes now lots of investors have turned on the makers the gop-1 last night I got a call from someone who complained about how miserably Eli Lily stock is done in large part because he bought it in the 900s I totally get that I know the stocks plummet to the 700s is sicken a great many shareholders but I think that these drugs have multiple benefits and their staying power questioned by many negativist may be stronger than the critics think the pattern seems ingrained already and the pain the processed foods were're supposed to experience might finally be arriving to me it's simple you should buy one kind of chip that's changing the world the semiconductors and avoid another kind of chip free delays it's ironic we used to regard the foods the safety stocks and the semiconductors High Flyers with huge downside now there seems to be nothing safe about the foods but the semis lots more staying power than anyone ever thought in a world where technological Giants continuously strive to etch their names into the annals of innovation an electrifying Buzz surrounds a select group of companies breaching The elusive $3 trillion market cap threshold this is a rarified club signifying not just Financial prowess but a profound impact on global markets and industries right now three corporate behemoths have achieved this Monumental feat Apple Nvidia and Microsoft each playing a pivotal role in spearheading the Monumental shift towards artificial intelligence AI a technology that's reshaping paradigms across various sectors while Apple confidently leads with around $3.8 trillion displaying the fruits of its technological dominion and consumer appeal a fascinating narrative unfolds around Nvidia this making Titan is poised at the cusp of another Financial Milestone with many Market analysts and Industry insiders anticipating it to be the FrontRunner in reaching a $4 trillion valuation welcome back everyone to invest ocracy yeah I think that this correction could last a bit you know you've seen the Marquee name Nvidia come down so what I would expect people to do what I would recommend people to do is to maybe keep some powder dry I think these AI infrastructure stocks in particular might see some near-term pressure as folks worry about a digestion in the spending of the hyperscalers on gpus and other infrastructure gear for data centers however I would take the opportunity as a pause that refreshes and on any significant dip on Nvidia at all I would probably buy them but I do think in the near term this correction could continue and I see particular weakness echoed in micron's results last night in all things consumer electronics their Nan flash business is doing very poorly and it's worsening and think about this this is flash memory chips that go into smartphones PCS cars and other industrial applications so that's the bad stuff within semiconductors the good stuff is all AI related but even the good stuff I would hold the phone for a bit I think you might be able to buy them a bit lower I guess that's the question that you you're just saying on Nvidia as long as it keeps going down what would you buy it at I think I'd probably look to find support at the 200 day moving average I'd also like to get a feed into the news that we won't actually get until the third or fourth week of January on the re buy spending plans if at all from the AI hyperscalers the ones that are spending the tens of billions of dollars on infastructure in the last time what do you think those Paul what do you think those revised plans look like I actually think they will confirm their guidance you know these are the deepest of all pockets and when they say they're going to spend tens of billions of dollars they typically do it and then sometimes they uh actually forecast on the downside and they raise things so I think we're going to be okay but I do think that there's going to be some worries not necessarily by me but others that sometime in 25 you will see a digestion of this AI infrastructure spending The Saga of Nvidia reads like that of a silent giant quietly revolutionizing not just its specific segment but potentially altering the entire Tech landscape historically Nvidia carved its niche as the enhancement of graphic performance for video games a segment which alone holds massive commercial potential due to the ever expanding gaming industry however a noteworthy pivot emerged when Nvidia realized that its Graphics Processing Unit GPU chipsets were ideally positioned to fuel the burgeoning trend of generative AI as AI evolved into a mega Trend signaling a new era of technological advancement Nvidia found itself in a prime position with nearly unrivaled Dominion effectively securing approximately 90% of the GPU Market this dominance is credited not only to its cuttingedge Hopper GPU but also to strategic foresight and Innovation which propelled nvidia's revenue and profits to unparalleled Heights in recent years this Technology's capacity for parallel processing makes it invaluable for AI applications solidifying nvidia's status as a leader in AI Hardware speak the name Blackwell to any Market analyst and you're likely to hear Echoes of optimism regarding nvidia's Journey as per industry expert Beth kig the company's Blackwell GPU architecture is projected to take Center Stage capturing the Market's attention with a projected tripling in production volume from Q4 to the first quarter of 2025 such accelerated production is likely a bellweather for nvidia's promising growth trajectory this development Rivals even the myths of Wall Street folklore applying sophisticated technology strategies to secure its future in a competitive marke three 025 ell- oh you're this comes on the back of a commendable 170% share price surge in 2024 Nvidia has experienced recent pauses in its upward climb heralded as an indicator of the long-term Market anticipation over Blackwell's launch this Advanced architecture is crucial to nvidia's continued Reign and expansion in the chip industry promising new capabilities that could further integrate AI into everyday technology while apple and Microsoft each wield formidable catalysts like the Apple intelligence equipped iPhone 16 and the robust Azure cloud computing infrastructure respectively nvidia's prospects noticeably Sparkle with its strategy and Innovation with its current market cap at 3.3 trillion Nvidia must navigate a prudent 21% growth journey to Crest the coveted $4 trillion Summit however it is important to note that Nvidia executed a significant 10 for one stock split earlier in 2024 this move Amplified its outstanding shares indicating strategic foresight designed to set a steadier course for growth rather than a hurri Ascent success hinges on nvidia's ability to Showcase sustained growth particularly in its Blackwell lineup and data center sectors which are likely to reflect an incremental stock movements throughout 2025 this steady calculated growth indicates strategic patience a rare trait in a time of frenzied Market ac stock started the year at 49 bucks a share or 50 bucks a share today we're at one you know 145 or something the asymmetry is closed and part of the reason for that is everybody had this wall of worry right custom as6 Amazon's going to have their own tranium chip I said on our recent bg2 podcast of course they're going to use tranium it's a cheaper price solution for certain customers but they also you know jasse has said he's going to buy as much Nvidia as he can get his hands on for as far as the eye can see they they know the world runs on Nvidia so um you know listen when we look at our price target for NVIDIA next year it's up 30% not up 100% like it was at the start of 2023 or at the start of 2024 so when you ask me as a portfolio manager you know we took down the size of our position it was a really outlier position for us to start the year it was a normal siiz position for us coming into this quarter and we're adding a little on the pullback in this quarter but we think it's going to be a great compounder and a great bet on not only AI but also on the replacement the move from x86 to GPU based data centers for the next several years okay Nvidia stands at a pivotal Point infused with intriguing possibilities holding what many believe to be the magic lamp of AI possibilities its promising Blackwell architecture transcends mere anticipation possessing the potential to redefine Market positioning and catalyze nvidia's trajectory towards the prestigious $4 trillion Market Echelon if these forecasts bear fruit those investing in Nvidia could witness not just formidable returns but be part of a pioneering chapter in Tech Evolution marking a period where technology fundamentally Alters the way Industries operate as Nvidia fortifies its presence in AI with groundbreaking initiatives investors might well find this moment opportune to consider not just nvidia's current valuation but its enriching promise of future Innovations the semiconductor Giant's intricate dance with AI reflects a broader shift towards a future steeped in sophisticated technologies that can address Global challenges enhance consumer experiences and redefine economic Landscapes what are your thoughts on this unfolding Financial Odysse
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