저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적 발표를 앞두고 AI 밸류체인 전반에 대한 긍정적 견해를 피력. 미국 경제 펀더멘털은 견조하며 자본이득 모드 유지. 반면 Jeff Seeker는 엔비디아가 3연속 상회 기대감 때문에 실적 후 AI 버블을 터뜨릴 것이라 주장. 캐시 우드는 딥시크를 경쟁 촉진으로 보며 AI 비용 하락 수혜를 강조하고 메타·아마존 보유를 언급.
다듬은 글
ar phem Nvidia has found itself in a bit of a quandry as certain indicators suggest it might be gearing up for a bumpy ride warns Nvidia Insider yet with key earnings reports emerging and Whispers of supplier delays the excitement surrounding Nvidia isn't just about what has happened but about what could unfold next nvidia's AI dominance and its partnership with companies like super micro computer Inc and ver of Holdings Inc stand center stage well all eyeses will be on Nvidia tomorrow that's for sure Frank even in days when Nvidia doesn't report that headlines seem to affect semiconductor chips and Nvidia in particular uh you know I think it's interesting to gauge where the market is on this one because Nvidia frankly the stock is where it was last June right so you haven't had this big run up into earnings that we sometimes see um of course there have been a long Trend there of Nvidia kind of blowing out earnings despite the high expectation and the you know and the move higher in the stock price right here you're seeing a stock that's down year to date down today flat for you know more than six seven months um and yet the expectations are there for kind of north of 50% Revenue growth so there's certainly room to disappoint there's a lot of expectations built into Nvidia stock but also that broader chip complex and the the AI build out so we'll be watching closely uh in terms of portfolio positioning I think we're a little bit more defensive right here I mean we want to be in stocks we're in capital appreciation mode but we're on you know we're on we're our head's on a swivel all right you're you're kind of defensive we're just hitting on some of the max weakness that used to be a defensive play also just want to talk to you about momentum in the market we've seen a big shift in momentum we're going to show the onewe moves of some momentum stocks including paler I'm looking at the chart I'm shocked by this one paler actually down 25% over the last week uh Walmart down almost 10% Goldman Sachs another momentum name down almost 7% what do you make of this big shift and we're talking about momentum well the market is clearly paying attention some to some of these headlines I mean you know in many ways the tariffs may act as a tax you know they tend to slow down potenti inflation but but everyone's trying to assess what this means for profitability and the consumer is really you know not um Allin right here I mean we're seeing some strength still on the labor market we know that GDP we're not really flirting with recession levels but you start to take a little bit of air out of the economy and a little bit of a slow down in the consumer the fed you know kind of pausing their more accommodative stance inflation being sticky and those momentum stocks they do pay a price I mean they benefit the most on the way up and right here the market is kind of recalibrating and saying look maybe defensives maybe some kind of small cap value some International names you know a paler selloff like that is interesting but you step back for many of these stocks you can look at you know some period of time where they're up 50% 100% 200% so you kind of have to take some of that volatility in both directions when you play these momentum names and right now the market is saying we want more stable more cash flow more value type names uh coming up later today we also have an eon economic report uh the second reading of GDP these economic reports they seem to become sometimes they're important sometimes they're not uh obviously the uh consumer sentiment report on Friday had a big impact on the market what are you expecting out of that the estimates for 2.3% um are you expecting us to hit that are you any are you concerned at all about the impact that this could have on the market ahead of again what could be another inflection point tomorrow with Nvidia so what's really interesting Frank is that the the underpinnings of the economy still looks strong to us I mean I think we'll still see low but positive GDP growth a labor market that's still strong inflation you know being sticky but not exactly spiking back to anywhere near the levels we were at you know a year or two years ago so we would expect a kind of GDP report that does keep us as I mentioned earlier in this capital appreciation mode I mean we still want to own equities we just need to be really careful about what we own I think that plays well for active managers I mean it's it's amazing that nvidia's earnings report is probably more interesting right now than the GDP report but that's kind of the market we're in nvidia's recent performance shows that the stock has cooled off by 2.83% year-to-date despite a remarkable 69.9 3% gain over the past year amid this roller coaster nvidia's stock moves dangerously close to its 50-day moving average which will signal whether the stock will soar or stumble trading volumes have thinned and the relative strength index RSI hovers around 50 this scenario has left investors to question will Nvidia maintain its momentum or are we on the verge of a deeper pullback possibly toward that daunting $100 psychological support level uh this is uh down this morning $132 per share Jeff Seeker with me now now I obviously I'll read your stuff Jeff and you you're saying uh Nvidia they report on Wednesday Nvidia will burst the AI bubble what do you mean by that well you know Stuart and I don't know if you know but I've been recommending the Nvidia since 2018 on your show I actually I actually say that repeatedly you made a lot of money for it that's true but but and you know people paid off their mortgages bought Bentley's bought n Tucket beach houses I mean people made a lot of money on Nvidia but what it's become is it's the curse of high expectations and the reason why I believe Nvidia is going to burst the AI bubble is the expectation out of there is that Nvidia has a triple beat meaning they beat earnings they beat revenue and they and and Jansen Wang increases the expectations for next quarter a triple beat is they're going to the earnings are going to be good but they're not going to be that good and of course we have the issue of deep seek we have the Chinese deep seek which is lingering out there it's a big mystery like the loch nest monster people don't really know what it does or what it could accomplish but one thing people know is that it is cheaper and May and may make it less likely that companies will spend the the capital expenditures they've spent in the past so nvidia's numbers on Wednesday and when they get on the call Jensen hang you think it's a bust I think it's a bust stock comes down and takes AI stocks with it I think it's a bust and it's been showing it's been level it's been flatlining and it's been showing this vulnerability and when you have company you reported it this morning like Microsoft that are reducing their spending on data centers you have to take that very seriously because there was so much hype over this stock this was the bell of the ball and right now there is going to be some trouble ahead you said your Nvidia uh I'm I've sold a little of it I'm going to hold on to some of it I'm not as you know Stuart I'm not a big seller I like to hold things longterm you don't want to pay the capital gain I know I'm waiting for Trump's tax cuts I'm waiting for him to get rid of the IRS that would be even better don't hold your breath son Jeff Seer thanks very much Jeff Market analyst Beth kindig poses such questions suggesting a possible buying opportunity if the stock continues to go down if in Med's management acknowledges existing supplier delays it could nudge the stock into further Retreat yet with the strength from Hopper and b200 systems they might help counterbalance these challenges super microcomputer Inc a key Nvidia Ally has thrown a curveball by trimming its fiscal 2025 Revenue guide they cite delays in Blackwell GPU deliveries prompting their CEO Charles Liang to adjust expectations on their much anticipated direct liquid cooling systems deployment similarly Verve Holdings another Cornerstone in the Nvidia ecosystem reports robust fourth quarter results but with softer forecast for its first quarter due to timing differences in AI shipmen des uh it's going to be extremely positive so the those using AI whether for productivity or other applications are going to benefit we think the two most profound uh use cases right now besides increasing productivity for everyone uh autonomous Mobility so think cars drones and so forth and uh interestingly the healthcare space uh we think the convergence of various sequencing Technologies Ai and crisper Gene editing that convergence is going to cure more and more diseases over time so these sound like huge positives for the businesses that are involved in in that stream and what does it tell us about us Tech overall we had a conversation yesterday about whether this is some kind of end of us exceptionalism and that might be in terms of stocks broadly but in terms of the US Tech sector are we talking about that or is this just a you know the spotnik moment that's been mentioned many times a chance for the US now to to catch up again yes I think uh competition is great for the US and uh deep seek is competition no doubt about it I'm hearing all of the Titans uh Tech Titans uh uh speak of it glowingly I don't think we know everything about it yet uh so no I think it's uh competition is good for the United States lowering costs is great for the world uh the collapse in the cost of innovation should help all regions of the world I will say uh that new productive forces which was shishi Bing's uh new phrase uh I think 18 months ago uh seems to be showing through right now common Prosperity was the previous one and I I still think that's an effect that was more about margins this is about Innovation so um we're looking more closely at China now I want to pick up on China in just a moment but I want to go back to that point make about cost of innovation collapsing specifically that would almost lead to the fact that perhaps it brings down the barriers of entry for midcap Tech firms or maybe people away from the hyperscalers but you haven't seen that second level outside of the AI adopters really catch the same bid in the way you see Amazon or Microsoft or even Oracle catch up a little bit what's the hiccup there if as you say the cost of innovation is collapsing why aren't some of these stocks reflecting that well I think there's a big debate going on and if you look at at uh the second third and fourth quarter of last year you look at the mega caps and the rest of the stocks in the S&P 500 you'll see Mega caps in the second and the fourth did very well uh and uh and uh the smaller cap stocks did very well much better than the mega cacs in in the third quarter I think there's a little bit of a tug-of-war evolving here and if we're right the most massive concentration in the market in history uh worse than the depression uh is probably going to give way to a broader based bull market we're seeing that in our portfolios and it and it really did start right around actually the day after the election uh and I think one of the most important things is going to happen is regulations coming down even in AI in the United States uh there regulations started to intrude in a technology that is today where the internet was in the early '90s we don't even know what we have yet yeah uh we're as excited as back then but now is not the time to regulate it heavily well I think you I think you've got the president on your side when it when when it comes to that in the states I want to come back to kind of this idea of of the hyperscalers here you're famous for for your beta strategy especially when it comes to the tech space I think it's fair to say that the highest beta right now is in some of these these Tech names in Nvidia in Microsoft in Google just looking at some of the moves we've seen in the last 24 hours not to mention the last 12 months or so why not increase your Holdings for more exposure to the hyperscalers yeah we do think well we do own uh meta and Amazon in our Flagship and we own more of them in our other more specialized portfolios uh and in Europe here we have an AI robotics fund and we we there we hold probably most of them because they are going to benefit from the declining cost in uh in Ai and even meta who was uh really The open- Source leader the Deep seek is open source I think meta is saying wait a minute what's going on here and they're going to use uh some of the techniques the algorithms uh that deep seek has used to improve uh their own platform so we're not negative on them while contemplating investments in Nvidia one must reconcile the current challenges with the promise of a brighter tomorrow suggested by nvidia's AI Endeavors as this Saga unfolds what's your take on nvidia's Journey analyzing its technical capabilities or betting on its long-term AI aspirations whatever the standpoint One Thing Remains clear nvidia's story continues to Captivate inviting your opinions perspectives and perhaps even your Market Maneuver
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