저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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AI 에이전트 시대가 예상보다 빨리 올 것이며 AI 학습·추론 비용이 급감해 혁신 비용이 붕괴 중이라고 주장. 플랫폼 서비스(PaaS)가 기술 스택의 점유율을 늘려 팔란티어·gitlab 등에 수혜 예상. 아마존은 보유 중이나 칩 경쟁 심화와 딥시크 영향으로 일부 우려 존재. 벤치마크 ETF의 부진은 금리 상승기 현금 선호와 대형주 쏠림 때문이며 시장 확산에 따라 수혜 예상. 엔비디아는 2/26 실적 발표를 앞두고 기대감이 언급되나 Cathie Wood 본인의 명시적 엔비디아 매수 발언은 자막상 확인되지 않음.
다듬은 글
you know we're making our way through earnings season that Mega AI trade and Trend Kathy uh some names reporting perhaps some disappointment I'm curious what you've learned this earning season looking at those reports listening to conference calls has it changed it all how you want to invest where you want to put money to work in that AI trade well uh as we know paler has been a huge beneficiary of this earning season I think many many people are beginning to understand that Hardware of course is important cloud is important uh but uh in order to deserve the valuations they're getting there have to be beneficiaries beyond that uh and we think platform as a service is going to take increasing share of the tech stack and so that does benefit companies like paler gitlab uh and others that uh developers are signing on to I'm curious though Kathy why you know yes those those companies will benefit I'm curious why you're not in the hyperscalers so you know we've talked before about you not being in Nvidia I'm curious why you all have made the choice to go that the route that you have with paler and the other names you mentioned versus some of the other magnificent 7 for example uh well I I think uh well we've we are in all of them in various of our portfolios you're asking about arkk the flagship we do own um Amazon and uh we do think uh after listening to the call last night especially you know the cloud is a central part of this story so uh love what they're doing there we were concerned for some time that maybe agentic personal agents uh were going to disintermediate uh Amazon on the retail front as our personal agents go shopping around the web for us but you know I do believe that uh Amazon's uh got you know they last night a 14% advantage in terms of lower prices Visa other online shopping sites on average so we're less worried about that and uh as you know we post our our Holdings And Trades at the end of every day so uh we have been building that one invid we do own in other portfolios uh we think there is huge demand going forward but again just listening to Amazon's call last night and to others there's more competition Brewing on the chip side of the equation Amazon has two graviton and uh inferentia no I'm sorry tranum and inferentia uh so on the supply side there is more competition brewing and uh and we are also seeing with deep seek for example uh there is a possibility that more of the large language models are going to be built on high-end workstations maybe not so much uh dependent on the cloud high-end workstations depend on fewer gpus uh all of that said this is all at the margin uh the whole Space we think is uh is going to be vibrant uh for years this we are so early in the journey here and we're pretty excited about it Kathy Wood comes out with another shocking statement about going all in on Nvidia before February 26th and why you should probably do the same just when you thought the AI boom had settled is about to stir the pot yet again with its much anticipated earnings report coming up on February 26th this isn't just another date on the calendar for many it's projected to be a pivotal moment for the AI chip giant welcome back everyone to invest ocracy how close do you think we are to that agentic AI future that you were just talking about where you know I have an agent and I tell it to go buy me something and it just goes and searches the web for that thing we think it's going to be here sooner rather than later in terms of a gentic right now we're seeing uh coders for example well a AI large language models you can give them a coding project and uh and and we're seeing that they can accomplish 80 85% of the task with no human intervention that's uh the beginning of agentic and we think it's going to push into every sector uh very quickly you know AI training costs are dropping 75% per year AI inference costs which is what would be used uh for this personal uh shopping agent they're dropping 85 to 95% per year so uh the cost of innovation is collapsing and we think more Innovation is going to happen especially around this agentic AI opportunity um Kathy you know as uh I always do ahead of us talking I go and I look at how the various ETFs have been doing not just um arkk but the others as well and I know you like to be judged on a longer time Horizon so I'm looking at three years I'm looking at five years I even looked at 10 years on all of those metrics especially the Benchmark ETF is lagging the S&P 500 we've talked about this before what do you tell investors clients when they come to you and they say Kathy what's going on here when am I going to be getting these big returns that should be coming from these big Innovation plays well we have just uh come from facing three major headwinds over the last few years uh that have turned into Tailwinds um but before I mention those I should say over the last 10 years Morning Star uh has uh who who ranks all ETFs uh we are in the top I think we're in the top seven seven and a half% % of uh of their rankings in terms of uh where they classify us which is in midcap growth because we do tend to be smaller cap than the broad-based benchmarks uh so over a 10-year period top 10% uh will take that that said these three headwinds what were they and they they really started uh uh after covid first was um the uh the uh con conentration in the markets towards the mag 6 I think after the The Fallout from covid and uh and uh the sorting out of the market you know people have been scared and saying you know they value cash very highly as interest rates went up and uh they like to dabble in the larger cap that's the safer part of the market so uh that the the broadening out of the market that we are expecting now should really benefit us yes nvidia's AI t stretch far and wide creating an Empire of innovation poised to meet real world challenges head-on we can't ignore the Staggering demand for Blackwell nvidia's trump card in the AI technology game reports ahead of February 26th promised a demand that soared Beyond expectations suggesting potential revenues in the billions within its inaugural quarter t has been happening though AI training costs have been dropping led by Nvidia uh 75% per year uh and AI inference costs have been dropping 85 to 90% per year deep seek is just putting those very rapid declines into a bit of overdrive here s let's zoom in on why February 26th is resonating across investor circles it's the day Nvidia reveals whether the Blackwell launch was the revolution they anticipated if Blackwell indeed lives up to its Buzz Not only would it underscore nvidia's leadership in AI Innovation but could reinvigorate investor confidence potentially driving stock prices to new height Thal 1 as we near The crucial date the question isn't just about whether Nvidia will uphold its promises with Blackwell but the broader implications for the sector the market Waits with baited breath yet optimism prevail
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