저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 미국 달러가 당장 붕괴할 가능성은 낮지만, 장기적으로 신뢰 약화와 통화 방어 국면으로 이어질 위험이 있다. 역사적 배경: 아르헨티나, 우크라이나, 아이슬란드, 베네수엘라, 독일 등에서 통화 위기가 발생했으며, 통화 붕괴는 화폐에 대한 신뢰 상실에서 시작된다. 달러의 기축통화 지위: 1944년 브레턴우즈 체제 이후 달러가 세계 기축통화 역할을 해왔고, 이는 법적 정당성과 거래 편의를 제공한다. 미국 경제는 2001년 이후 성장이 둔화됐지만 여전히 유럽·일본보다 우위다. Ray Dalio 견해: 기축통화 지위에 위협은 있으며 진화적 과정으로 나타난다. 대체 통화는 아직 없지만 투자자들은 채권에서 금·주식 등 다른 자산으로 이동할 수 있다. 채권 수익률이 낮고 부채 화폐화가 진행되면 연준이 통화 방어자 역할을 떠안아 금리 상승 또는 대규모 매입의 악순환이 생길 수 있다. 현실적 시나리오: 고인플레이션과 고부채의 이중 위협이 가장 현실적이며, 연준의 급격한 금리 인상이 경기침체를 부를 수 있다. 다만 중국·일본·유럽 등 주요 수출국도 미국 경제에 의존하므로 달러 붕괴를 원하지 않으며, 대체 통화들도 유사한 재정·통화 정책 문제를 안고 있다. 결론적 전망: 달러가 절대적으로 약해져도 상대적 강세로 글로벌하게 강할 수 있으며, 가장 가능성 높은 경로는 붕괴보다 화폐 증발의 악순환 속에서 중앙은행이 금·주식 등 자산으로 방어에 나서는 상황이다. 투자자 참고: 영상은 Dalio의 투자 철학 강연 시청을 권하며, 구독과 댓글 참여를 요청한다.
다듬은 글
history is full of examples of sudden currency collapses argentina ukraine iceland venezuela and germany have all experienced terrible currency crises since 1900 the start of any collapse stems from a lack of faith in the stability of money to serve as an effective store of value or medium of exchange as soon as we the people stop believing that a currency is useful that currency enters a quick downfall this can be brought on through a variety of ways including low growth or inflation since the launch of quantitative easing worry investors have asked will the u.s dollar collapse this interesting question has been brought to light once again due to the extreme measures taken by the united states federal reserve in recent months to understand the possibility of a currency collapse you have to understand a bit of history ever since the bretton woods agreements in 1944 other major governments and most importantly central banks have relied on the us dollar to back up their value of their own currency this essentially made the u.s dollar the world's reserve currency a status that brings with it countless benefits including legitimacy in the eyes of domestic users currency traders and participants in international transactions on top of this status it helps that the american economy is still the largest and most important economy in the world even though growth has slowed since 2001 the us still regularly beats out its peers in europe and japan at the end of the day these debt presidents are backed up by the productivity of american workers but in recent times these facts have begun to be challenged countless investors including most famously ray dalio single to troubling times ahead here he is talking about currency collapses is there a real threat right now to the us dollar status as the world's reserve currency uh yes there is a there is a threat it's an evolutionary type of process there's not yet a good alternative in the form of a currency per se but people are not investors big large institutional investors don't run out necessarily to alternative currency because the three major reserve currencies all have the same basic problem that's why they move into a new storehold of wealth and you see that the storehold of wealth like in 1933 reaction is equities is gold is other asset classes that go up so um when you buy a company right and you have low returns on your bonds and so on that is that kind of movement but the same is true for gold and other asset classes if that gets too far and it has and it's standing the risk of it's very dangerous it looks like a currency defense in other words if those who are holding bonds which are a lot choose to sell the bonds because they're not providing a good return and they're not and because there's so much debt production and debt monetization that puts the federal reserve or other central banks in the very difficult position of operating like a currency defense mechanistically as money leaves that debt that means either interest rates would rise which would be terrible for the economy and markets or they're forced to buy more and more and that is how a spiral could could occur what dahlia points out in that 90 second clip is incredibly important while the status of the us dollar as the world's reserve currency can always be threatened and will eventually collapse the current environment makes it unlikely as all other world currencies face the same problems the fundamental weakness of the us dollar is that it's only valuable through government fiat this weakness is shared by every other major national currency in the world and is perceived as normal in the modern age things are no longer backed by gold in fact one of the reasons the imf was formed was to monitor the federal reserve and its commitment to brenton woods today the imf uses other reserves as a discipline on fed activity while they have recently turned a blind eye to that that was the original intent if foreign governments or investors decide to switch away from the us dollar in mass the flood of short positions could significantly hurt anyone with assets than nominated in dollars fortunately for the united states virtually every alternative currency is backed up by similar insane economic policies where money printing and debt monetization is prevalent even if the dollar faltered in absolute terms it may still be stronger globally due to its strength relative to other alternatives so will the u.s dollar collapse well there are some conceivable scenarios that might cause a sudden crisis for a dollar like dalia was saying the most realistic is the dual threat of high inflation and high debt a scenario in which rising consumer prices forced the fed to sharply raise interest rates this would force the u.s into a recession but even in that scenario the pain will be felt throughout the world the u.s economy is what other countries rely on for exports any economic collapse here will be felt in china japan and europe all major exporters with face pain as we remain the largest economy in the world at the end of the day foreign exporters such as china and japan do not want a dollar collapse because the united states is too important a customer even if the united states had to renegotiate or default on some debt obligations there is little to no evidence that the world would let the dollar collapse and risk possible contagination what is more likely is what dalio stated there at the end we would all be entering into a downward spiral of money printing where eventually a huge worldwide economic disaster could force central banks into different types of assets like gold inequities in a way the central banks would position themselves to become currency defenders if you're interested in protecting yourself against this scenario listen to dalio speeches on how he invests for the future thank you guys for watching please make sure you hit that subscribe button if you enjoyed and leave a comment if you think the us dollar will collapse and why
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